Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the escalating tensions between Elon Musk and Treasury Secretary Becerra, highlighting their past confrontations and Musk's recent political maneuvers [1][5][8] - Musk's comments on social media label Becerra as a puppet of Soros, indicating a personal and political rivalry [1][3] - The article details a heated confrontation between Musk and Becerra in the Oval Office, showcasing the intensity of their disagreements over IRS leadership appointments [5][7][6] Group 2 - The conflict between Musk and Becerra is set against the backdrop of Musk's criticism of Trump's fiscal policies, particularly the $3.3 trillion "big beautiful" spending bill [8][9] - Following the signing of the spending bill, Musk announced the formation of a new political party, the "American Party," aimed at representing the interests of 80% of moderate voters [9][10] - Trump's reaction to Musk's new political party was dismissive, suggesting that Musk's actions were more for entertainment than serious political engagement [10]

Group 1 - Elon Musk officially announced the establishment of the "American Party" on July 5, aiming to reclaim freedom for the people and targeting key seats in the 2026 midterm elections [1] - The announcement comes amid a fierce disagreement between Musk and Trump over the "Big Beautiful Bill," which Trump signed into law on July 4, with Musk criticizing it and threatening to form the new party if it passed [2][9] - A poll conducted by Musk on social media showed that 65.4% of approximately 1.25 million participants supported the formation of the "American Party," leading to its official establishment [2][3] Group 2 - The "American Party" plans to focus on 2-3 Senate seats and 8-10 House districts initially, aiming to become a decisive force in Congress through these key positions [5] - This strategy differs from traditional political parties that seek to win a majority, as Musk aims to influence policy-making by being a "critical minority" in key votes [7][8] - Musk indicated that the party's political agenda may include reducing debt spending, promoting AI technology development, and deregulation, which he confirmed in response to public speculation [3] Group 3 - The conflict between Musk and Trump is rooted in fiscal policy disagreements, particularly regarding the $3.3 trillion spending bill, which Musk claims will exacerbate the U.S. debt crisis [9] - Musk has previously advocated for a $190 billion reduction in government spending, but this has led to significant taxpayer losses, highlighting the contentious nature of his fiscal policies [9] - Trump's response included threats regarding Musk's business viability and public comments suggesting that Musk could face repercussions for opposing his agenda, indicating a significant shift from their previous alliance to open conflict [9]

Market Overview - On July 4, U.S. markets were closed for Independence Day, leading to a risk-off sentiment with S&P 500 futures down 0.6% and European blue-chip index STOXX 50 down over 1% [2] - European chip stocks fell, with ASML Holdings down approximately 2.6% [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on EU brandy, causing Remy Cointreau's stock to drop 7.2% intraday before recovering to close up 2% [2] - The 10-year German bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points, while the UK bond market remained weak with a cumulative rise of 5 basis points this week [2] - Gold prices rose nearly 0.6% amid increased risk aversion, while WTI crude oil dropped 1.5% due to expectations of significant OPEC+ production increases [2] - In Asia, A-shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3500 points, while the Hang Seng Index fell below 24000 points [2] Key News - The U.S. government informed General Electric Aviation that it can resume supplying jet engines to COMAC in China, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [8] - President Trump announced plans to send tariff letters to trade partners, with rates potentially ranging from 60%-70% to 10%-20% [8] - The EU's trade negotiations with the U.S. have not reached a breakthrough, with ongoing discussions expected over the weekend [9] - Indonesia expressed confidence in reaching a "bold trade agreement" with the U.S., proposing zero tariffs on 70% of U.S. products [9] - India is preparing a strong response to U.S. auto tariffs, potentially imposing retaliatory tariffs due to the impact on its exports [10] Legislative Developments - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful" bill, marking a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy towards tax cuts and increased defense spending, while cutting funding for healthcare and clean energy projects [11] - The bill is expected to severely impact Tesla's carbon credit revenue, which accounted for 39% of its net profit in 2024 [11] - Tesla is reportedly facing challenges with new model shortages, leading to increased pressure on sales [12] Market Sentiment - Bank of America indicated that the S&P 500 is nearing a sell signal, with the "Big Beautiful" bill raising the risk of a summer market bubble [13] - Iron ore prices rebounded by 4% this week, driven by strong demand from China, but Goldman Sachs warned that prices may struggle to exceed $100 per ton [13] Domestic and Overseas Macro - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in China is pushing for measures to stabilize the real estate market [14] - The U.S. Treasury's strategy to increase short-term bond issuance may undermine the Federal Reserve's independence and affect inflation control [15] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain current interest rates, focusing on achieving a 2% inflation target [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry shows characteristics of reduced development and optimized stock, with the overall demand for steel still weak, and the production profit of ferroalloys is negative. The silicon iron market is affected by factors such as macro - policies, overseas trade, and supply - demand relationships. The silicon iron main contract is expected to fluctuate, considering the high inventory and off - season demand despite the low - level operation of alloy manufacturers' production [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The central government emphasizes eliminating backward production capacity, and the market sentiment is affected by the call to remove in - fighting and reduce redundant competition. From January to May, the national crude steel output was 432 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, and the apparent consumption of domestic crude steel was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US has new trade policies and legislative actions. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, and the "Big Beautiful" bill passed in the US House of Representatives, bringing a deficit burden of $3.4 trillion [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The operation of silicon iron production is at a low level, and the demand for steel is still weak. The production profit of ferroalloys is negative, with the spot profit in Inner Mongolia at - 360 yuan/ton and in Ningxia at - 320 yuan/ton. Before mid - August, the impact of Sino - US tariffs is expected to decline, but the impact of tariffs from other countries needs attention [7]. - **Cost Aspect**: The electricity cost in Ningxia and the price of semi - coke in Ningxia remain unchanged compared to the previous period [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the macro - policy boost and the current situation of low - level production and high inventory in the industry, the silicon iron main contract should be treated as a fluctuating operation [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 4, the position of silicon iron futures contracts increased by 4,123 lots to 405,300 lots, and the 1 - 9 contract spread increased by 28 compared to the previous period. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 5,301 to 12,277, and the spot price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 5,280 yuan/ton [9][13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 4, the basis of silicon iron was - 154 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 compared to the previous period [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 31.95%, an increase of 0.26% compared to the previous period, and the daily average output was 14,320 tons, an increase of 380 tons. The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 20,481.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.63%, and the weekly supply of national silicon iron was 100,200 tons [28]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon iron enterprises was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 3.51% compared to the previous period [30][32]. - **Upstream**: As of June 30, the electricity price for silicon manganese and silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. As of July 3, the average price of semi - coke in Ningxia remained unchanged. The spot production profit in Ningxia was - 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, and in Inner Mongolia, it was - 360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [36][41]. - **Downstream**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4085 million tons, a decrease of 14,400 tons compared to the previous week but an increase of 15,300 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the total export volume of silicon iron was 165,400 tons, a decrease of 15.97% compared to the same period last year [44].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight LME copper weakened with a 0.58% drop to $9,951.5/ton, SHFE copper main contract fell 0.27% to 80,540 yuan/ton, and spot imports remained in a loss. The better - than - expected US employment data may reduce the possibility of the Fed's early rate cut in July. LME, Comex, and domestic copper inventories all increased. In the off - season, terminal procurement enthusiasm declined. With potential fundamental changes, copper price lacks industrial support for upward movement, but due to Sino - US interaction and domestic anti - involution policy expectations, short - selling enthusiasm is limited, and the copper price may oscillate slightly stronger with limited upside [1]. Aluminum - Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. Alumina faces ore disturbances in the far - month and new production pressure, mainly oscillating in a range. There is a game between the weakening marginal demand of electrolytic aluminum and the effects of low ingot casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeeze. For scrap aluminum, there is still cost support, and for aluminum alloy, continuously focus on the opportunity of rolling long the AD - AL price difference [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 0.86% to $15,355/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.1% to 122,540 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Some nickel ore premiums in the Philippines declined, and the domestic stainless - steel cost support shifted down. There was a certain production cut in the supply side. The short - term price has a certain repair, but the upside is limited, and in the medium - term, the demand restricts the fundamentals, which may still be bearish [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzed price changes, macro data, inventory changes, and demand conditions, concluding that the copper price may oscillate slightly stronger with limited upside [1]. - **Aluminum**: Discussed price trends, raw material prices, processing fees, and the market situation of different aluminum products, pointing out the game factors and investment opportunities [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Presented price movements, inventory changes, and the situation of related industries such as nickel ore and stainless steel, and gave short - and medium - term price outlooks [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Showed price changes of different copper products, inventory changes in multiple places, and other indicators such as premiums and import - export profits and losses [4]. - **Lead**: Included price changes of lead products, lead - concentrate prices, processing fees, inventory changes, and premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Displayed price changes of aluminum products, raw - material prices, inventory changes, and premiums [5]. - **Nickel**: Presented price changes of nickel products, nickel - ore prices, inventory changes, and premiums [5]. - **Zinc**: Showed price changes, TC, inventory changes, and premiums of zinc products [6]. - **Tin**: Included price changes, inventory changes, and premiums of tin products [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premiums**: Provided charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads**: Showed charts of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Presented charts of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displayed charts of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Included charts of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profits**: Showed charts of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements introduced [50][51][52].

Core Points - The "Big Beautiful" bill, pushed by President Trump, has passed the House of Representatives with a narrow margin despite strong opposition from Democrats [1][2] - The bill aims to extend and upgrade Trump's tax policies from his first term, proposing a $4 trillion tax cut and a $1.5 trillion spending reduction over the next decade [2][8] - The bill raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, which could increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next ten years according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) [2][9] Summary by Sections Legislative Process - The House voted 218 in favor and 214 against the bill, with two Republican representatives voting against it alongside Democrats [2][5] - The debate preceding the vote saw Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries set a record for the longest speech in modern House history at approximately 8 hours and 46 minutes [4] Economic Implications - Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that the market shows investor support for the bill, suggesting it has fiscal prudence and could benefit economic growth [6] - The bill includes provisions to permanently extend tax cuts from 2017, exempt overtime pay and tips from taxation, and impose work requirements for Medicaid [3][8] Budgetary Changes - The Senate version of the bill differs from the House version by making tax cuts permanent and increasing military and border security spending [8] - The CBO estimates that the extension of tax cuts alone will result in over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next decade [8]

Group 1 - The "Big Beautiful" bill, which includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, narrowly passed the Senate with a vote of 51-50, requiring Vice President Pence's tie-breaking vote [1][2] - The bill's passage in the Senate highlights internal divisions within the Republican Party, with three Republican senators voting against it due to concerns over increased fiscal deficits and cuts to social security programs [2][3] - A recent Pew Research Center survey indicated that nearly half (49%) of American respondents oppose the "Big Beautiful" bill, reflecting a lack of broad public support [2] Group 2 - The Senate version of the "Big Beautiful" bill proposes significant cuts to Medicaid, which some House Republicans are unwilling to support, indicating ongoing resistance within the party [3] - The bill includes a provision to raise the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for five years, which has faced opposition from some Republican lawmakers [3] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the Senate version of the bill will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade and lead to an increase of 11.8 million uninsured individuals by 2034 [4] Group 3 - The bill reflects the Trump administration's legislative agenda, extending certain corporate tax benefits and injecting billions into military funding while significantly cutting foreign aid [4] - The renewable energy sector is expected to face increased costs of $4-7 billion over the next decade due to changes in the bill, which could pose a "survival crisis" for the industry [5] - The final version of the bill removed a proposed new consumption tax on imported components for wind and solar projects, but the overall impact on renewable energy remains negative according to industry leaders [5]

Group 1 - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is a significant tax and spending legislation proposed by Trump, seen as an extension and upgrade of his first-term tax policies, aiming to fulfill campaign promises and adjust Biden's policies [1][5] - The Senate passed the procedural vote for the bill with a narrow margin of 51-49, indicating a divided Republican party with some dissenting voices [2][3] - The bill includes provisions to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, which critics argue could lead to unsustainable debt levels and potential economic repercussions [4][5] Group 2 - The updated version of the bill softens cuts to Medicaid and increases state and local tax deduction limits, while tightening conditions for renewable energy tax credits [5][9] - The bill is projected to reduce the deficit by $5.11 trillion over ten years and aims to lower the national debt to 94% of GDP by 2034, contrasting with Biden's plan of 117% [5][9] - Concerns have been raised about the potential increase in national debt by over $3.3 trillion and the impact on investor confidence in U.S. fiscal health, which could affect the bond market and dollar stability [9][10]

Group 1 - Elon Musk criticized the "Big Beautiful Bill," targeting Republican lawmakers who supported the tax bill, vowing to ensure their defeat in the upcoming midterm elections [1] - Musk's statements may disrupt the internal dynamics of the Republican Party and add uncertainty to the party's primary elections in 2026 [1] - The bill raised the debt ceiling by a record $5 trillion, prompting Musk to call for the establishment of a new political party that genuinely cares for the people [1] Group 2 - Musk condemned the latest version of the "Big Beautiful Bill," arguing that cuts to electric vehicle and clean energy subsidies would harm the future of American industries and lead to significant job losses [2] - On June 29, the Senate passed an updated version of the bill with a vote of 51 to 49, which eliminated the $7,500 tax credit for consumers purchasing electric vehicles [2] Group 3 - Musk's recent threats indicate a significant shift in his political strategy, moving from supporting Trump to criticizing Republican colleagues who back Trump's tax policies [3] - Previously, Musk had invested $250 million in the 2024 election cycle to support Trump, but he has now expressed a desire to reduce political spending [3] - In response to Musk's criticism, Trump attempted to downplay their differences, acknowledging Musk's capabilities while suggesting that his behavior was inappropriate [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the accelerated push by the U.S. Congress for the "Big Beautiful Bill," which is a central piece of Trump's economic agenda [1]. Legislative Process - On June 29, the U.S. Senate passed a procedural vote for the "Big Beautiful Bill" with a 51-49 result, allowing it to enter the debate stage [2]. - The vote lasted nearly four hours, with all Democrats and two Republicans opposing it, highlighting divisions within the Republican Party [3]. - The Senate Republicans need to make further adjustments to secure the necessary 50 votes for the final approval [3]. Political Reactions - Elon Musk criticized the proposed tax reform, claiming it would destroy millions of jobs and harm future industries [4]. - Polls indicate that the bill could be politically detrimental for the Republican Party [5]. Debt Ceiling and Financial Implications - The bill proposes to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, marking a historical high and potentially leading the U.S. into a debt crisis [8]. - The bill also aims to eliminate certain tax credits and subsidies for green energy, which has raised concerns among various stakeholders [13]. Delays and Challenges - Democrats are employing tactical delays, including a strategy to read the entire 940-page bill aloud, which could postpone the final vote [9][10]. - Even if the Senate passes the bill, it must return to the House for another vote, where some Republicans have expressed opposition to significant cuts in medical assistance [12]. Compromises and Adjustments - The latest version of the bill includes compromises to appease different factions within the Republican Party, such as delaying the implementation of certain tax caps and establishing a fund for rural hospitals [13]. - The bill also raises the threshold for renewable energy subsidies, requiring projects to be operational by the end of 2027 to qualify [13].