Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs poses a stagflation risk to the US economy, delaying the Fed's easing path and boosting the US dollar, which suppresses the non - ferrous market. The unexpected absence of refined copper and cathode copper from the US copper tariff list causes the COMEX premium to rapidly return. In China, the "anti - involution + stable growth" policy boosts the domestic capital market, with increased fiscal counter - cyclical adjustment [2]. - Fundamentally, overseas major mines face continuous disruptions, while domestic refined copper production is high and imports are rising, leading to a looser supply situation. In the consumption sector, traditional industries in China show signs of a slow season, while the copper demand of emerging industries (except for photovoltaics) remains active. The COMEX copper delivery window closes, and global inventories rise slightly [2]. - Overall, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs raises the US inflation expectation, and the Fed's hawkish signals cool the capital market's risk appetite. Although the overseas mine shortage persists, the absence of the US copper tariff weakens the support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will adjust slightly in August, and the cost will still support copper prices in the medium term [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of Copper Market in July 2025 - Copper prices showed a range - bound trend in July. LME copper dropped from a high of $10,020 at the beginning of the month to $9,550 in the first half, then rebounded to $9,900 and faced resistance. SHFE copper traded in the range of 77,600 - 80,800 yuan. The unexpected US copper tariff situation and the unclear recovery of Panama's mine affected the prices. As of July 28, LME copper closed at $9,762.5/ton with a monthly decline of 1.17%, and SHFE copper closed at 79,000 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 0.03% [7]. - In July, domestic refined copper consumption entered the traditional off - season. Terminal demand was weak, and the social inventory first rose to 150,000 tons and then fell to 120,000 tons. The spot premium declined, and the processing fee of copper rods decreased [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 The US Signs Trade Agreements with Major Economies, and the Fed Maintains a Hawkish Stance - The US - EU and US - Japan trade agreements strengthen the US economic position, boost the US dollar, and increase the global capital market's risk appetite. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade negotiation is expected to have a positive impact on copper prices if an agreement is reached [13]. - There are differences among Fed officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this year is uncertain, but in the long run, the policy may become more accommodative due to economic slowdown pressure [14]. 2.2 The US Manufacturing Enters a Contraction Cycle, and the Eurozone's Composite PMI Reaches a One - Year High - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49.8, still in the contraction range. Factory orders, employment, and other indicators show that the US manufacturing is facing challenges, and inflation may rise in the short term [15]. - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July rose to 49.8, with Germany playing an important role. The ECB may gradually slow down its easing pace [17]. 2.3 The "Anti - Involution + Stable Growth" Policy is Clear, and New Fields and Tracks will be Pre - deployed - China's "anti - involution" policy aims to address over - competition in industries such as photovoltaics. The "stable growth" policy focuses on key industries like automobiles and steel, and promotes innovation in emerging fields such as AI and bio - manufacturing [18]. - In June, China's industrial added value and the profits of the equipment manufacturing industry increased, which is beneficial for the overall economic development and copper demand [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Overseas Mainstream Mining Companies Increase Production in Q2, but the Global Concentrate Shortage Persists - As of the end of July, the copper concentrate spot TC remained at a low level of around - $40/ton. Some major mines like Panama and Kamoa - Kakula face production problems, and although some companies increased production in Q2, the global concentrate shortage continues [25]. - Anglo American, First Quantum, BHP, and other mining companies had different production performances in Q2, affected by factors such as ore grade, recovery rate, and natural disasters [26][27][28]. 3.2 Domestic Production Encounters Bottlenecks, and Overseas New Refined Copper Capacity Climbs Slowly - In China, from January to June, the electrolytic copper production increased, but the import of refined copper decreased. The supply of scrap copper from the US is expected to decline, but the overall scrap copper import is relatively stable. In the future, overseas refined copper supply may return to China [31][32]. - Overseas, many smelters face problems such as production disruptions and slow capacity ramping up. It is estimated that the actual increase in overseas refined copper production in 2025 is only about 150,000 tons [33]. 3.3 Refined Copper Imports will Increase in July, and the COMEX Copper Arbitrage Window is Closing - From January to June, China's imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased, while the imports of copper ore concentrates increased. In June, refined copper imports increased. The US copper tariff policy affects the flow of copper and the arbitrage window is closing [56]. - The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium declined in July, and the export window is narrowing. The US copper tariff policy will change the global copper trade pattern [57]. 3.4 Overseas Inventories Flow to North America, and China Enters a Low - Inventory Range - In July, domestic copper inventories fluctuated at a low level, with SHFE inventories decreasing and Shanghai bonded area inventories increasing. Global visible inventories rebounded due to the approaching US copper tariff window [61]. - As of July 25, the total inventory of the three major exchanges increased slightly. It is expected that global inventories will gradually enter a recovery cycle in August [62][63]. 3.5 Grid Investment Demand Enters the Off - Season, and the Year - on - Year Growth Rate of Emerging Industries (Except for Photovoltaics) Declines - In the first half of 2025, China's grid and power source project investments increased. The total grid investment of the State Grid and South Grid is expected to exceed 80 billion yuan, and the development of flexible DC technology will bring value to new grid lines [70][71]. - The photovoltaic industry has new regulations, and the growth of the wind power industry slows down. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the demand for copper in these industries is affected [72][75]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China maintain strong growth, and the domestic and export markets are both active. The demand for copper in new energy vehicles is expected to continue to grow at a rate of over 25% [79][80]. 4. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the US reciprocal tariffs and the Fed's policy affect the copper market, while China's "anti - involution + stable growth" policy is positive for the market. Fundamentally, supply is becoming looser, and consumption is mixed [85]. - Overall, the support for copper prices from the fundamentals weakens. It is expected that copper prices will adjust slightly in August, and the cost will still support copper prices in the medium term [86].