铜周报 地缘风险加剧，铜价延续反弹 核心观点及策略 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周铜价企稳反弹，主因美伊冲突升级地缘政治风险加 剧，全球市场避险情绪迅速升温。此外，市场聚焦下月沃 什听证会上能否捍卫美联储独立性及未来的货币政策路 径，特朗普最新10%的临时关税降低了中国运往美国的商 品关税，利好短期国内出口，而全球AI数据中心和老旧电 网系统的改造仍需要依赖大量的铜资源；基本面来看，矿 端供应偏紧格局延续，国内冶炼厂产量边际下滑，全球显 性库存继续上行，内贸现货转向小幅升水，近月盘面C结 构收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2026 年 3 月 2 日 ⚫ 整体来看， ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has set an ambitious target for lithium carbonate equivalent production, aiming for 270,000 to 320,000 tons by 2028, a nearly 11-fold increase from the less than 30,000 tons expected in 2025, indicating a significant shift towards the new energy sector [2][11]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - The company is diversifying its operations beyond gold and copper, with a focus on lithium production as part of its strategy to become a top global mining group [3][12]. - In 2025, Zijin Mining achieved a net profit of approximately 51 to 52 billion yuan, a nearly 60% year-on-year increase, largely driven by its gold business, which benefited from a surge in international gold prices [3][12]. - The company’s gold production reached 90 tons in 2025, a 23.3% increase from the previous year, with a gross profit margin of 72.8% [3][12]. Group 2: Expansion and Acquisitions - Zijin Mining has accelerated its international expansion, completing eight major gold mine acquisitions since 2020, including recent purchases in Ghana and Kazakhstan, and plans to list its overseas gold assets [4][13]. - The acquisition of African United Gold Company for 28 billion yuan is expected to add approximately 12 tons of gold production in 2025, raising the company's 2026 gold production target to 105 tons, with aspirations to reach 130 to 140 tons by 2028 [4][13]. Group 3: Lithium Production and Cost Management - The company has established a low-cost lithium production base through its "Two Lakes and Two Mines" resource system, including projects in Argentina, Tibet, Hunan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo [5][14]. - The first phase of the 3Q salt lake project has commenced production with a cash operating cost of only 2,914 USD/ton, among the lowest globally [5][14]. - Zijin Mining's comprehensive cost for lithium carbonate remains between 40,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton, providing a buffer against price fluctuations [6][15]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - As of September 2025, Zijin Mining's long-term debt and bonds exceeded 112.3 billion yuan, with significant capital expenditure pressures from ongoing projects [6][15]. - The company faces geopolitical risks in its overseas projects, particularly in Africa and South America, which could impact resource control [6][15]. - Despite favorable market forecasts for gold, copper, and lithium, the company must navigate potential macroeconomic disruptions that could affect demand and pricing [6][15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - By early 2026, Zijin Mining is positioned as a diversified global resource platform, spanning precious metals, industrial metals, and new energy materials [7][15]. - If the company can effectively manage its production capacity and debt risks over the next three years, it may achieve its long-term vision of becoming a leading international mining group by 2035 [7][15].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining (601899)(02899) has seen a significant increase of over 4%, currently trading at 45.3 HKD with a transaction volume of 2.272 billion HKD, driven by upgraded price targets and profit forecasts from Citigroup due to rising gold and lithium prices, as well as increased gold sales [1] Group 1: Price Target Adjustments - Citigroup has raised the target price for Zijin Mining's H-shares by 32.8% from 39 HKD to 51.8 HKD and for A-shares by 31.3% from 35.5 RMB to 46.6 RMB, maintaining a "Buy" rating and considering it a top pick in the industry [1] - The firm anticipates that Zijin Mining will gradually increase its dividend payout ratio, projecting a payout rate of 40% starting in 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Zheshang Securities (601878) views Zijin Mining as a leading global player in gold and copper resources, benefiting from a rising price trend in gold and copper amid a rate-cutting cycle and escalating geopolitical risks [1] - The company is expected to achieve simultaneous growth in volume and price due to ongoing production increases from projects like the Julong Copper Mine, Kazakhstan Gold Mine, and Allied Gold Corporation, alongside a rebound in lithium prices contributing to a third growth curve [1] - Current valuation levels are considered low within the industry, suggesting potential for valuation re-rating in the future [1]

2026 年 2 月 11 日 战略属性价值抬升，铜价中枢上移 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 ⚫ 宏观方面，10月如期降息后美联储内部分歧加 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 24 ⚫ 风险点：联储12月暂停降息，美国经济现衰退迹 铜月报 象全球经济增速放缓 核心观点及策略 核心观点及策略 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 宏观方面，美联储1月暂停降息，新任提名主席 沃什主张的"降息+缩表"政策组合短期内或难 以实施，其政策独立性仍将受到挑战。美国当前 以聚焦核心利益为优先，试图扩大对西半球关 键矿产和资源的获取，而我国也计划扩大铜战 略储备规模，增强在铜产业链上游谈判中的话 语权和供应 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场供需两端格局明显 铜价维持震荡格局 期货行情： 2026-02-10，沪铜主力合约开于 101740元/吨，收于 101560元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.27%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 101,660元/吨，收于 101,730 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.13%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日沪铜现货报价区间为贴水40至升水50元/吨，均价升水5元/吨，较前日下跌30元/吨。主力合约2602 早盘冲高回落，收盘报101210元/吨。市场采销情绪双降，上海地区销售情绪指数2.65，采购指数2.55。持货商报价 分化，其中优质品牌因货源紧张报价坚挺，平水铜及非注册品牌则贴水扩大成交。进口维持亏损，隔月价差在350-450 元/吨。展望后市，随着进口货源到港与下游备货结束，市场呈现供需两淡局面。持货商部分惜售待交割，可流通 资源有限，而买方接货意愿低迷，预计现货升水将继续承压。 重要资讯汇总： 地缘方面，美国总统特朗普周二在接受采访时表示，若与伊朗的谈判失败，他正考虑向中东再派遣一个航母打击 群，以为可能的军事行动做准备。美国与伊朗上周五在阿曼重启谈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, it is recommended that long - position holders take profits on rallies and hold cash with an empty position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, copper is still favored as an important strategic resource in the China - US game and a substitute asset allocation for precious metals, considering the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming demand for green copper. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [96,000, 105,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12,500, 13,500] US dollars/ton [6][96]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - The overall macro situation is mixed. With the Spring Festival approaching, market risk - aversion sentiment rises. The traditional off - season leads to weak demand, and the high global visible copper inventory suppresses the upside space of copper prices. Long - position holders are advised to take profits on rallies and hold cash with an empty position during the holiday. In the long - run, copper is promising due to its strategic importance and the background of tight copper concentrate and growing green copper demand [6][96]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - In the US, employment data is poor. In January, ADP employment increased by 41,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The initial jobless claims dropped to 209,000, and the continuing jobless claims continued to decline, indicating overall stability in the job market. The January manufacturing PMI data shows that the service sector is strong while the manufacturing sector contracts slightly. The US 1 - month CPI and core CPI inflation pressures are generally controllable. The US dollar index increased by 0.87% to 97.96, causing pressure on commodities. The Middle - East geopolitical risks are volatile. The US AI stock market has concerns about the bubble, leading to panic selling [15]. - In China, the January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from December 2025, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing economy. On February 5, 2026, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call. Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman led to expectations of "interest - rate cuts + balance - sheet reduction" policies, causing the US dollar to rebound strongly, precious metals to fall, and the non - ferrous metal sector to decline [16]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - **Copper Mine Supply**: Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore abandoned merger negotiations. Southern Copper's production guidance for 2026 - 27 is lower than 2025, increasing concerns about supply shortages. The US plans to start a strategic critical mineral reserve project. Congo (Kinshasa) exported copper to the US for the first time. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports reached record highs multiple times [53]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate TC remains at a low level. The 2026 long - term copper concentrate price is 0 US dollars/dry ton, down 21.25 US dollars/dry ton from 2025, indicating a tight supply expectation [54]. - **Crude Copper Processing Fees**: The processing fees in the south and north regions and for imported crude copper have different price ranges [54]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production and Import**: In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a slight increase. Due to smelter maintenance, February production is expected to decline. In 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [56]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference**: The scrap - to - refined copper price difference has recovered to a medium - high level, but it has converged recently [56]. - **CSPT Consensus**: The CSPT group reached a consensus on reducing copper smelting capacity, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing malicious competition [56]. 3.3.2 Demand - **Copper Processing Enterprises' Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of domestic electrolytic copper rod enterprises is 69.07%, a 0.47% decrease; that of recycled copper rod enterprises is 14.82%, a 0.13% increase; and that of wire and cable enterprises is 60.15%, a 0.69% increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rates of downstream enterprises are expected to decline significantly [77]. - **Terminal Industry Copper Consumption Forecast**: In 2026, the total copper consumption of various industries is expected to be 1.68 million tons, with a 2.75% year - on - year increase [78]. - **Terminal Demand**: Green copper demand is high in renewable energy and new - energy vehicles. In the automotive sector, the retail sales of domestic passenger cars and new - energy vehicles in January 2026 have different trends. In the power sector, grid investment increased, and photovoltaic installed capacity grew rapidly. In the home - appliance sector, production increased due to the policy of trade - in of consumer goods [79]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The global visible copper inventory is at a historically high level, hitting a new high since July 2013. The high inventory restricts the upside space of copper prices. Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious stance on the copper market, with short - term risks tilted downward. Only after the Spring Festival in China when the demand recovery signal is clearer in the second half of the second quarter of 2026 may the market have new fluctuations and upward opportunities [93][94].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record financial results in Q4 2025, with a 45% increase in revenues from Q3, driven by increased production and a 21% rise in realized gold prices [9][10] - Net earnings nearly doubled from the prior quarter, and the company reported record quarterly cash flow, free cash flow, earnings per share, and a cash balance [9][10] - For the year, cash flow from operations reached $7.7 billion and free cash flow was $3.9 billion, up 71% and 194% year-over-year, respectively [10][11] - The company ended the year with a net cash position of $2 billion, indicating a strong balance sheet [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gold production increased by 5% from Q3, with a full-year total of 3.26 million ounces, aligning with guidance [7][22] - Copper production rose by 13% from Q3, driven by higher throughput at Lumwana [7] - The company restructured its business units, placing key processing facilities under common leadership to enhance operational efficiency [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a significant increase in EBITDA, with a 53% rise compared to the prior quarter, reflecting higher margins due to the increased gold price [11] - The company anticipates gold production in 2026 to be between 2.9-3.25 million ounces, with expectations of higher production in the latter half of the year [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The board has decided to prepare for an initial public offering (IPO) of Barrick's North American gold assets, targeting completion by late 2026 to maximize shareholder value [4][25] - The company is focusing on operational discipline and safety as top priorities, with plans to adjust remuneration frameworks to attract and retain talent [17][5] - The company aims to maintain a strong focus on high-quality assets and will continue to invest in gold while divesting non-core assets [102] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving production guidance for 2026, citing a strong start to the year and improved operational performance [15][22] - The company is committed to safety and health, emphasizing the need for improvement following past incidents [5][6] - Management acknowledged challenges in attracting and retaining talent but is implementing changes to address these issues [17] Other Important Information - The company has a robust reserve and resource base, with attributable proven and probable gold reserves totaling 85 million ounces [24] - The new dividend policy targets a payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow, with a significant increase in the quarterly dividend [12][13] Q&A Session Summary Question: IPO potential and strategic value - Management believes a partial IPO of North American assets will unlock more value than a full separation, as the current portfolio is undervalued [30][32] Question: Intended proceeds from the IPO - The specifics of the intended proceeds will be determined as part of the preparation work for the IPO [34][36] Question: Reko Diq financing status - Management is reviewing the security situation in Balochistan before proceeding with financing [39] Question: Changes in mine plans and guidance - The company has conducted a comprehensive review of mine plans, leading to more confidence in production delivery [43][46] Question: Importance of Veladero asset - Veladero is considered a core asset and has not been explored for divestiture [56][57] Question: Recovery rates at PV - The company is targeting a recovery rate of 84%, with ongoing efforts to optimize stockpile blending [62][64] Question: Cost outlook post-2026 - Management indicated that costs are expected to remain flat, without providing specific guidance [92][93]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that the company's South African subsidiary, Palabora Copper, has suspended underground mining operations due to severe flooding caused by heavy rainfall, which is reported to be the worst since 2000 in the region [2] - The rainfall in January 2026 exceeded 890 millimeters, significantly higher than the national average annual rainfall of approximately 450-500 millimeters [2] - The flooding has led to water accumulation in mining tunnels and damage to key facilities, although there were no casualties reported [2] Group 2 - The company is currently focusing on dewatering, equipment maintenance, and safety inspections, with the production of copper products expected to be affected for about two months [2] - As of the announcement date, the company has approximately 100 million tons of surface-stored iron ore, and production and shipment of surface iron ore are proceeding normally, with an expected annual sales volume of 10 million tons [3] - The company's stock price increased by 6.97% to 25.95 yuan per share on February 4, 2026, and has risen by 37.37% from December 16, 2025, to February 4, 2026, compared to a sector increase of 11.92% and a market increase of 7.96% during the same period [3]

美联储前理事凯文·沃什被特朗普提名为美联储下一任主席，由此引发了市场对于美联储后续货币政策 路径可能边际转鹰的一系列猜测，最近全球金融市场巨震，特别是贵金属板块前期累积过多获利盘导致 多头踩踏，抛售情绪下有色金属也出现大幅回调一幕。不过伴随着风险偏好的修复，铜价快速回归1月 份震荡平台附近。近期宏观情绪发什么怎样的变化？铜价下方有何支撑？ 美元指数止跌企稳 美联储政策路径待明朗 前期重要矿产国密集出台资源保护政策，叠加去年美国大幅提高进口关税，以及今年以来委内瑞拉、格 陵兰岛变局，让市场意识到大国对战略性资源控制权的争夺愈发激烈。虽然此前美国232调查结果出炉 对关键矿产暂缓征税，但最近又祭出120亿美元战略金属收购存储计划，用于为汽车企业、科技公司、 制造商等采购并储存矿产资源，储备范围预计涵盖稀土、铜和锂等关键矿产以及其他价格波动较大的战 略性元素。与此同时，最近中国有色金属工业协会在新闻发布会上表示，将配合有关部门严控新增矿铜 冶炼项目，还将扩大国家铜战略储备规模，探索进行商业储备机制，通过财政贴息等方式选择国有骨干 企业试行商业储备，并可研究将贸易量大、容易变现的铜精矿纳入储备范围。这体现了全球主要经 ...

Group 1 - Cochilco raised its 2026 copper price forecast to an average of $4.95 per pound, citing strong demand expectations, a weaker US dollar, and geopolitical risks [2] - The previous forecast in November was $4.55 per pound, indicating a significant upward revision [2] - The agency anticipates the average copper price will reach $5.00 per pound by 2027 [2] Group 2 - Chile, as the world's largest copper producer, is expected to produce 5.613 million tons of copper this year, a 3.7% increase from 2025 [2] - Production is projected to rise to 5.973 million tons by 2027 [2] Group 3 - China, the largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in addressing these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is collaborating with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [2]