01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 铜周报：降息前景不明，铜价高位整理 2025-11-24 01 主要观点策略 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜区间震荡。截至上周五收至85660元/吨，周跌幅1.87%。美国劳工部公布最近非农就业情况，新增就业岗位显著高于预 期水平。叠加美联储后续利率政策内部意见分歧下，12 月降息概率有所下调，铜价高位承压。基本面铜精矿TC仍处于历史负值低位， 自由港的印尼Grasberg预期将于明年二季度复产，但铜矿紧缺下铜价中枢中长期有支撑。铜价下跌带动下游订单回升，采购情绪回升 铜库存小幅去库，但高铜价对终端需求影响仍较大，铜价或延续高位震荡运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 25-11-21 25-11-17 25-11-11 25-11-05 25-10-30 25-10-24 25-10-20 25-10-14 25-09-30 25-09-24 25-09-18 25-09-12 25-09-08 25-09-02 25-08-27 25-08-21 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released, which are expected to boost carbon prices, and carbon prices are likely to recover at an accelerated pace. The potential buyer demand in the market may increase by over 100 million tons in the remaining month of this year, and the actual procurement demand of the three industries is estimated to be around 30 million tons [5]. - MEG is in a weak mid - term trend, with short allocation recommended, and the monthly spread maintains a reverse arbitrage. The supply is expected to return in the future, and there is a pattern of supply - demand surplus, resulting in insufficient upward momentum [6][7]. - The repair market of treasury bond futures has reached its limit. The subsequent market is expected to show a steeper curve and a bearish trend with fluctuations. The probability of scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) is relatively high [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Carbon Market - The 2024 and 2025 national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released. In 2024, the free - allocated quotas equal the quotas to be cleared, and the basic carry - over volume is increased from 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons. In 2025, the overall balance of the three industries is maintained, and the adjustment coefficient of the carbon emission intensity coefficient is expanded from 10% to 15% [5]. MEG - The load of the synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit has decreased from 80% to below 70% in the previous two weeks, but some device overhauls have ended, and new devices are put into production. The monthly import is expected to exceed 600,000 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the polyester load declines in December, resulting in a supply - demand surplus [6][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market had a repair market due to weak economic data and a decline in global risk appetite. Currently, it is difficult to stimulate the long - end price to continue rising. The bond market curve is expected to become steeper, and the market trend is bearish. There are two scenarios in the future, with scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) having a higher probability [8][9]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, and silver is in a volatile adjustment [12]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are under pressure due to increased internal and external inventories; zinc is in a range - bound oscillation; lead prices are restricted from falling due to reduced inventories; tin prices are falling from a high level; aluminum shows a slight stabilization, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; nickel prices break through the support level and are under pressure to oscillate, and stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality but have limited downward space [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Carbonate lithium may have a short - term correction; industrial silicon may see production cuts to support prices in the future, and polysilicon is in a weak and volatile pattern; iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation; rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a wide - range oscillation; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese experience a weakening market sentiment and supplementary price drops; coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation; logs are in a volatile and repeated state [12]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil has fully priced in short - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking process in the producing areas; soybean oil is oscillating strongly; soybean meal and soybeans are in an adjustment and oscillation; corn is oscillating; sugar is in a range - bound arrangement; cotton prices are still suppressed by the pressure of new cotton listing; eggs show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; live pigs' price increase expectation due to cooling fails, and the pressure is gradually released; peanuts require attention to the spot market [12][15].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first three quarters, achieving a revenue of $925 million, a year-on-year increase of 99.83%, and a net profit of $341 million, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The third quarter saw a net profit of $141 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.43%, driven by rising gold and copper prices and improved sales discount coefficients for the Jiamar mine [1] - The company has set ambitious production guidance for 2025, with gold production from the Changshanhao mine expected to be between 2.4-2.6 tons and from the Jiamar mine between 2.15-2.3 tons, alongside copper production guidance of 63,000-67,000 tons [1] Production and Cost Data - For the first three quarters, gold production was 4.02 tons and sales were 4.21 tons, while copper production was 54,100 tons and sales were 53,300 tons [1] - The unit production cost for gold at the Changshanhao mine was $1,639 per ounce, while the unit production cost for copper at the Jiamar mine was $3.23 per pound, with a decreasing trend in costs observed over the quarters [2] Operational Insights - The Changshanhao gold mine is nearing the end of its operational life, with a reduced production capacity of 40,000 tons per day, while the Jiamar mine is undergoing operational adjustments due to past incidents and is expected to resume full operations by mid-2027 [3] - The company is actively working on the construction of a third tailings storage facility, which will enhance the daily processing capacity once operational [3] Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of $1.277 billion, $1.440 billion, and $1.564 billion, with corresponding net profits of $502 million, $666 million, and $740 million, indicating strong growth potential [3]

Summary of Compañía de Minas Buenaventura (NYSE:BVN) 2025 Investor Day Company Overview - **Company**: Compañía de Minas Buenaventura - **Event**: 2025 Investor Day held on November 18, 2025 - **Key Speakers**: Leandro García (CEO), Daniel Dominguez (CFO), Juan Carlos Ortiz (VP of Operations), Roque Benavides (Chairman) Industry Insights - **Mining Sector**: Focus on gold, silver, and copper production - **Market Position**: Currently ranked 81st in market capitalization, with aspirations to reach the top 50 in 15 years - **Production Goals**: - Gold: From current 120,000-130,000 ounces to 200,000-220,000 ounces per year - Silver: From current levels to 20-22 million ounces per year - Copper: From current levels to 120,000-130,000 tons per year Core Strategies and Financial Performance - **Revenue Mix**: 50% base metals and 50% precious metals, targeting a minimum EBITDA margin of 30% [5][6] - **Financial Strength**: Current leverage ratio at 0.45, down from 6 times EBITDA five years ago [9] - **Investment Grade**: Aiming to regain investment grade status and participate in new mining standards [5] Production and Operational Highlights - **Flagship Projects**: - **Cerro Verde**: Partnership with Freeport-McMoRan - **Uchucua and Yumpac**: Silver complex - **Brocal**: Copper mine - **San Gabriel**: Expected to start production in December 2025 [3][6] - **Production Forecast**: - Gold production expected to reach 75,000-80,000 ounces in 2026, increasing to over 100,000 ounces in subsequent years [28] - Copper production at El Brocal projected to reach 60,000 tons per year by 2029 [34] Cost Management and Efficiency - **Cost Reduction Initiatives**: - San Gabriel cash costs projected to decrease from $2,000 to $1,500-$1,400 per ounce as production ramps up [52] - El Brocal cash costs expected to reduce from $6,000 to $5,000 per ton [53] - Uchucua cash costs projected to decrease from $12 to $9-$10 per ounce [53] - Coimolache costs expected to drop from $1,400 to $1,100 per ounce [54] Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Practices - **Local Employment**: 64% of employees are from local communities [14] - **Safety Record**: Zero fatal accidents reported this year [15] - **Renewable Energy**: 100% of energy sourced from renewable sources [16] - **Community Investment**: $240 million spent annually on local services and goods [15] Political and Economic Context - **Political Landscape**: Upcoming elections in Peru may bring discussions on nationalization and tax changes, but the current political context is more stable compared to 2021 [18][19] - **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: Strong central bank and positive performance of the Peruvian sol [19] Future Outlook - **Cash Flow Projections**: Expected positive free cash flow starting in 2026, with projections of $150 million in 2026 and $400 million in 2027 [56][57] - **Capital Expenditures**: Estimated at $400 million for 2025, with a focus on San Gabriel construction and sustaining CapEx for other projects [55] - **Dividend Expectations**: Anticipated dividends from Cerro Verde of $150 million-$170 million annually [56] Conclusion - **Strategic Focus**: Buenaventura is committed to operational stability, strategic expansion, and maintaining a strong financial position while enhancing production capabilities across its flagship projects [58][59]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The copper price is expected to stop falling and rebound in the short term. Although the copper price has fallen from its high due to the hawkish signals from Fed officials, the pressure from the macro - side on the copper price is not expected to last. The tight spot market and frequent copper mine accidents provide support for the copper price [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On Monday, the Shanghai copper price dropped 0.91% to 86,450, and the total positions decreased by 11,326 lots. The copper price fell from its high due to the hawkish signals from Fed officials. The spot price dropped 585 to 86,510, and the spot premium increased 50 to 105. The month - to - month spread of the last trading day fluctuated significantly, and the premium of Shanghai copper against the current month strengthened significantly [9]. - The social inventory decreased by 0.73 tons over the weekend because of less imported and domestic arrivals. The LME0 - 3 swap fee turned to back at 3.88, and the Shanghai - London ratio fell below 8, leading to an expansion of the spot import loss to over 900. The short - term import window remained closed, and the supply of imported goods was expected to decline [9]. - The increase in spot premiums at home and abroad highlighted the tightness of the spot market. The probability of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in December dropped to 40% due to the Fed officials' remarks. A large number of important US data will be released starting this Thursday, but the inflation and employment data in October still face challenges, which may lead to significant differences in the December Fed meeting. A rate cut in December is still ruled out in the short term [9]. - A bridge collapse at a copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo over the weekend caused 32 deaths. Frequent copper mine accidents maintained the support from the mine end [9]. 2. Industry News - On Saturday, a bridge at a copper mine in the southeast of the Democratic Republic of Congo collapsed, causing 49 deaths and sending 20 seriously injured people to the hospital [12]. - On November 15, Huixin Copper Industry in Siziwangqi Bainaimiao area cooperated with Amaowusu Mining Company for copper mining and beneficiation. The project with an annual output of 10,000 tons of copper concentrate powder and an annual processing capacity of 800,000 tons of ore officially started production. It is expected to process 6,000 tons of raw ore and produce 3,200 tons of copper concentrate powder by the end of the year, with an output value of 64 million yuan. After the deep exploration and mine operation are completed next year, the industrial output value will reach 1.1 billion yuan [12]. - The second - phase expansion project of Sichuan Southwest Copper Industry Co., Ltd. has completed the main construction and entered the final stage. The project focuses on the efficient and circular use of resources and will build a production line for the deep - processing of waste high - voltage cable copper with an annual processing capacity of 53,200 tons. After the full operation of the second - phase project, the company's total production capacity will reach 170,000 tons. It is expected to achieve an output value of 1.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of this year and a total annual output value of 4.5 billion yuan [13].

国信证券发布研报称，中国黄金国际(02099)2025年前三季度业绩强劲，营收与净利润大幅增长并实现 扭亏，主要受益于金铜价格上涨及成本优化。公司金、铜产销量稳步提升，全年产量有望超指引。随着 甲玛矿逐步复产和未来产能扩张，成长性可期，当前股价对应PE为13.9/10.5/9.4X，考虑到公司拥有 金、铜产品组合，资源储量丰富，未来成长性较强，维持"优于大市"评级。 ...

国信证券发布研报称，中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)2025年前三季度业绩强劲，营收与净利润大幅 增长并实现扭亏，主要受益于金铜价格上涨及成本优化。公司金、铜产销量稳步提升，全年产量有望超 指引。随着甲玛矿逐步复产和未来产能扩张，成长性可期，当前股价对应PE为13.9/10.5/9.4X，考虑到 公司拥有金、铜产品组合，资源储量丰富，未来成长性较强，维持"优于大市"评级。 公司前三季度实现黄金产量4.02吨，实现黄金销量4.21吨。其中长山壕前三季度黄金产量约2.12吨，黄 金销量约2.34吨;甲玛矿前三季度黄金产量约1.90吨，黄金销量约1.87吨。公司前三季度实现铜产量5.41 万吨，实现铜销量5.33万吨。公司2025年产量指引：长山壕黄金产量指引约2.4-2.6吨;甲玛矿黄金产量指 引约2.15-2.3吨，铜产量指引约6.3-6.7万吨。全年的维度来看，公司金、铜产量超过指引的可能性较 高。 成本数据方面 长山壕前三季度黄金单位生产成本1639美元/盎司;甲玛矿前三季度铜单位生产成本3.23美元/磅， Q1/Q2/Q3单位生产成本分别为3.41/3.19/3.13美元/磅，前三季度扣除副产品 ...

产销量数据方面 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，中国黄金国际(02099)2025年前三季度业绩强劲，营收与净利 润大幅增长并实现扭亏，主要受益于金铜价格上涨及成本优化。公司金、铜产销量稳步提升，全年产量 有望超指引。随着甲玛矿逐步复产和未来产能扩张，成长性可期，当前股价对应PE为13.9/10.5/9.4X， 考虑到公司拥有金、铜产品组合，资源储量丰富，未来成长性较强，维持"优于大市"评级。 国信证券主要观点如下： 整体业绩表现 中国黄金国际前三季度实现营收9.25亿美元，同比+99.83%;实现归母净利润3.41亿美元，同比扭亏;其 中，Q1/Q2/Q3分别实现归母净利润0.85/1.15/1.41亿美元，Q3环比+22.43%。公司Q3利润环比再次实现 明显提升，主要得益于金铜价格上涨以及甲玛矿销售折价系数提升。 公司前三季度实现黄金产量4.02吨，实现黄金销量4.21吨。其中长山壕前三季度黄金产量约2.12吨，黄 金销量约2.34吨;甲玛矿前三季度黄金产量约1.90吨，黄金销量约1.87吨。公司前三季度实现铜产量5.41 万吨，实现铜销量5.33万吨。公司2025年产量指引：长山壕黄金产量指引 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and analysis of various commodities on November 18, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend and influencing factors [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have declined. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international copper futures have fallen. The trend strength is neutral [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It has shown a slight decline. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have different trends. The trend strength is neutral [2][12]. - **Lead**: The significant increase in overseas inventories has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have decreased. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][16]. - **Tin**: It has fallen from a high level. The prices of domestic and international tin futures have declined. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: There is pressure above. The prices of domestic and international aluminum futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - **Alumina**: It is in a range - bound shock. The price of domestic alumina futures has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has broken through the support level and is under pressure to fluctuate. The prices of domestic and international nickel futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but there is limited downside. The price of domestic stainless - steel futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market sentiment is positive, and it is relatively strong in the short term. The prices of domestic carbonate lithium futures have increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is strong support at the bottom. The price of domestic industrial silicon futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the market information from the meeting. The price of domestic polysilicon futures has decreased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][36]. - **Iron Ore**: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic iron ore futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][39]. - **Rebar**: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic rebar futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic hot - rolled coil futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The main production areas continue to reduce production, and it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic silicon ferrosilicon futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Affected by the sector sentiment, it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic manganese silicide futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][49]. - **Coke**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coke futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. - **Coking Coal**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coking coal futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. Others - **Log**: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic log futures has remained stable. The trend strength is neutral [2][55]. - **Rubber**: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic rubber futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is support during the shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Asphalt**: The factory inventory has decreased slightly, and it is in a narrow - range shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **LLDPE**: The agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **PP**: Do not chase short positions in the short term, and there is still pressure in the medium - term trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Pulp**: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic pulp futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak operation. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Urea**: There is support during the short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **LPG**: The downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Propylene**: The demand expectation has improved, and it is in a short - term strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Fuel Oil**: It maintains a weak shock and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has increased, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has continued to widen. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the opening guidance. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Bottle Chip**: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is in a low - level shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Pure Benzene**: The overseas blending oil market has started, and it is mainly in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors have been fully digested, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean price is stable, and soybean oil is in a strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is strong, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean**: It may follow the rebound of the soybean market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Corn**: It is fluctuating. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the trading volume of new sugar. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses the futures price. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Egg**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse - spread pattern. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Live Pig**: The expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed, and the pressure is gradually being released. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4].

铜周报 基本面支撑助力，铜价高位震荡 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价高位震荡，主因当前美联储鹰鸽两派的内部分歧 凸显，在政府关门缺乏关键经济数据指引下联储在制定政 策路径或缺乏有力证据，打压市场风险偏好，中性官员表 示货币政策基调应介于温和限制性和中性之间，既需要抑 制高于目标的通胀水平，同时也要为劳动力市场提供一定 支持，12月降息仍然存疑。基本面来看，印尼Grasberg事 故评估结束进入缓慢复产阶段，但全球精矿供应格局仍然 趋紧，国内精铜产量下滑，社会库存维持20万吨附近，近 月盘面C结构走扩。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 2025 年 11 月 17 日 ⚫ 整体来看，尽管美国政府接近重启运营，但10月就业市场 数据或面临一定程度缺失将令美联储延续宽松路径面临 阻力，叠加鹰派官员对12月降息支持力度有限，打压市场 风 ...