新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 美元走弱背景下 铜价震荡偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 消费方面，上周国内精铜杆企业开工率环比上升1.20个百分点至71.80%，略高于预期，主要受前期检修企业复产带 动；若不考虑该因素，实际开工呈下降趋势。下游消费整体疲软，电线电缆企业多观望、按需采购，废铜杆开工 下滑虽带来部分订单增量，但受终端需求偏弱制约，拉动有限。漆包线消费亦处淡季，支撑不足。原料库存环比 降2.31%至3.38万吨，成品库存因企业控产和铜价小幅回落带动订单稍增，下降5.44%至6.61万吨。预计下周开工率 将降至68.06%，主因消费持续低迷及铜价高位运行加重企业谨慎情绪。铜线缆企业开工率为68.88%，环比微降0.43 个百分点，同比大幅回落24.66个百分点，但仍略高于预期1.28个百分点。行业整体运行平稳，下游需求未见改善， 多数企业反映当前处于"上行乏力、下行有限"的淡季常态，未进一步恶化。建筑与电力等领域订单均不及预期， 其中国网招标也低于此前预估，未能有效提振需求。原料库存因企业点价后未实际提货、以消化现有库存为主， 环比下降0.33%至15080吨；成品库存受资金限 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价放量上涨创 8 月新高，日内 LME 休市，COMEX 铜震荡微涨，鲍威尔在全球央 行年会上释放降息信号，同时上海楼市放开限购，日内市场做多情绪高涨，盘面 月差结构略有收窄，现货涨 565 至 79395，现货升水跌 10 至 140， 日内销售情绪 明显走低，社库较上周四下降 0.87 万吨至 12.3 万吨，去库支撑现货升水。内外 盘 ...

（原标题：Codelco上调El Teniente矿难损失预估至3.4亿美元） 智利《信使报》8月20日报道，智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）表示，因Teniente矿 区作业停摆，预计损失将达3.4亿美元。该矿区产量将较原计划减少3.3万吨，即从34.9 万吨降至31.6万吨。销售收入将减少3.21亿美元，可变成本减少8800万美元，致销售利 润下降2.33亿美元，此外计入停产区域固定成本，致使总损失达3.4亿美元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts has converged, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to 75%. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a three - year high, and Fed officials' hawkish remarks have put pressure on the market. Domestically, the A - share market's risk appetite may have reached a short - term peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery. [2][3] - Most commodities are expected to show a volatile trend. Gold and silver prices are likely to remain volatile, waiting for Powell's speech. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and other metals are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina are expected to oscillate, and lithium carbonate is in a game - based volatile stage. Crude oil is expected to be weak after a short - term technical correction, and agricultural products such as soybean meal and palm oil are also expected to fluctuate. [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month manufacturing PMI reached 53.3, a three - year high, with inflation pressure increasing. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have dampened the market's expectation of a September rate cut. The dollar has risen, and the US bond yield has increased. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market weakened after a high opening on Thursday, with the trading volume remaining at 2.4 trillion. The risk appetite has declined, and the bond market has a chance to recover. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold futures on COMEX fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce, and silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce. The better - than - expected US PMI data and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on gold prices. The market is waiting for Powell's speech, and it is expected that gold and silver prices will remain volatile. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract maintained a volatile trend. The US manufacturing showed signs of improvement, but there are concerns about long - term demand after the tariff policy. The Fed's internal differences remain large, and the Codelco has lowered its copper production forecast. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile in the short term. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20590 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased. The good performance of the US and European manufacturing PMIs has improved the overseas demand expectation. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate in the current range. [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 3124 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The supply is slightly increasing, and consumption is stable. It is expected that alumina will continue to show a weak - oscillating trend. [10] 3.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on zinc prices. However, the decline in zinc prices has led to increased downstream purchases, and it is expected that zinc prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. [11] 3.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The inflow of delivery goods has led to a slight decline in inventory, and the inverted price difference between refined and scrap lead provides support for lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [12] 3.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract showed a weak - oscillating trend. The supply of tin ore and scrap tin is tight, and the low LME inventory provides support, but consumption is weak. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [13] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract rebounded from a low level. The supply is marginally loose, and the demand side has different performances. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. [14][15] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are in a game - based volatile stage. Although the spot market has improved, the supply increase may exceed the demand, and it is recommended to wait and see. [16][17] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The cost pressure of nickel iron has eased slightly, and the demand for stainless steel is limited. The cost of nickel sulfate is high, and the demand has resilience. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to Powell's speech. [18][19] 3.12 Crude Oil - Crude oil oscillated strongly. Geopolitical factors are heating up, and it is expected that oil prices will be weak after a short - term technical correction. [20] 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract both declined. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the new - crop export sales exceeded expectations. The market expects the state reserve to release soybeans in November, and it is expected that the domestic soybean meal will oscillate in a range. [21][22] 3.14 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of August increased slightly, and Indonesia's inventory in June continued to decline. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust. [23][24] 3.15 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and other data of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver on August 22, 2025. [26] 3.16 Industry Data Perspective - The document presents the data changes of various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, gold, silver, and related products including steel, iron ore, and agricultural products from August 20 to August 21, 2025, including prices, inventories, and price differences. [27][32]

2025 年 08 月 22 日 铜：等待美联储降息指引，波幅收窄 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，SMM，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 宏观方面，鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔年会讲话前，美联储明年票委称 9 月可能不会降息，今年票委对行动犹 豫，此后两年期美债收益率接近三周高位；美联储主席候选人布拉德建议激进：今年降息 100 基点，9 月首 次行动。（华尔街见闻） 美国 8 月制造业 PMI 初值 53.3，意外创三年多新高，通胀压力加剧。（华尔街见闻） 微观方面，PT Smelting 冶炼厂的制氧设备故障，致使原定四周的检修期被延长。（SMM） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,630 | -0.30% | 78730 | 0.13% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy shows strong growth as the US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly reached a three - year high, but it may also affect the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm due to inflation concerns [7]. - For the soybean sector, the rise in US soybean prices is driven by a Reuters report and a market rumor. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic and move with US soybean prices [8][10]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to oscillate and correct after the macro - sentiment cools down, as the driving force for the previous rise has weakened [11]. - The copper market lacks a clear driver, with a narrowing price range, but the downside support is relatively clear. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. - The PTA market has a strong unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Indicators - The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, with the output and backlog of orders reaching highs since mid - 2022, and new orders reaching the highest since February 2024. The services PMI initial value was 55.4, a two - month low, and the composite PMI initial value was 55.4, a nine - month high [7]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Analyses 3.2.1 Beans - Reuters reported that the Trump administration is expected to rule on small refinery biofuel exemption applications on Friday, and a supplementary rule on large refineries may be released next week. A market rumor said that China plans to buy US soybeans, driving up US soybean prices. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic [8][10]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous rise was due to the expected supply contraction of coking coal under anti - involution policies. Recently, the driving force has weakened as the policy window has passed, the macro - sentiment has cooled, the exchange has restricted positions and increased handling fees, and the actual supply remains high with weakening fundamentals. Coke's seventh price increase is expected to be implemented today, but steel mills' acceptance of price increases is decreasing [11]. 3.2.3 Copper - Macroscopically, the market is waiting for Fed Chairman Powell's speech and interest - rate cut expectations. Fundamentally, overseas smelters are reducing production due to raw - material shortages and losses. The tight supply of recycled copper may also affect production. The domestic consumption season is approaching, and inventories are low. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. 3.2.4 PTA - The unexpected shutdown of the Hengli Huizhou PTA plant is expected to cause significant inventory reduction in August - September. The polyester device's operating rate has increased, and the PTA supply - demand relationship will turn to a tight balance. Attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3.3 Other Commodity Trends - Gold is in high - level oscillation, and silver has a slight decline [19]. - Zinc is in a weak oscillation, and lead's price is supported by inventory reduction [19][33][36]. - Tin is in range - bound oscillation, and aluminum is in a range - bound state, with alumina slightly falling and cast aluminum alloy following electrolytic aluminum [19][40][43]. - Nickel is in low - level oscillation, and stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between expectations and reality [19][46][47]. - Lithium carbonate's weekly inventory is decreasing again, and it is in range - bound oscillation [19][53]. - Industrial silicon is affected by market news, and attention should be paid to the upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to this week's meeting information [19][57]. - Iron ore still has support as the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined [19][61]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [19][64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations [19][69]. - Coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations [19][72]. - Logs are in repeated oscillations [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: On Hold [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton, short call@80000 yuan/ton [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the processing fee has rebounded, but the shortage of mine resources is difficult to change. Consumption is not expected to perform well, but with relatively stable grid orders, the overall price is expected to fluctuate. The development of the Putin-Biden meeting and the performance of the domestic equity market may impact copper prices. The report suggests a neutral stance on copper, puts arbitrage on hold, and provides option strategies [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On August 20, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,690 yuan/ton and closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, a -0.32% decline from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 78,560 yuan/ton and closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 130 - 250 yuan/ton to the current 2509 contract, with an average premium of 190 yuan/ton, a 5 yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was in the range of 78,670 - 78,870 yuan/ton. The purchase and sales sentiment in Shanghai increased. It is expected that domestic supplies will continue to be supplemented, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper will face continued pressure [2]. 3.3 Important Information Summary 3.3.1 Macroeconomic - The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting showed that tariffs pose upward pressure on commodity price inflation, but the increase in the cost of imported goods including tariffs will be less than previously predicted and the time of increase will be postponed. The labor market is expected to weaken, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise above the estimated natural unemployment rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [3]. 3.3.2 Mine End - Tudor Gold has submitted an underground exploration permit application for the Treaty Creek gold-copper mine project. First Quantum Minerals has launched a $1.25 billion expansion project for the Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia, which is expected to nearly double the ore processing capacity, increase smelter capacity by about 25%, and increase the average annual copper production to 250,000 tons by 2044 [4]. 3.3.3 Smelting and Import - The Hong Kong delivery warehouse of the London Metal Exchange was inaugurated. China's refined copper production in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year-on-year increase. Some smelters have reduced production due to shortages of copper concentrate and scrap. In August, the number of smelters reducing production has increased compared to July [5]. 3.3.4 Consumption - The monthly prosperity index of China's copper industry in July was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range [6]. 3.3.5 Inventory - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 450 tons to 156,350 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons to 25,223 tons. On August 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.337 million tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from the previous week [6].

Core Viewpoint - Codelco will lower its production guidance for 2025 following a recent accident at its flagship mine El Teniente, which resulted in a production decrease of 33,000 tons and a financial loss of $340 million [1][1][1] Production Impact - The CEO Ruben Alvarado announced that the expected production for El Teniente this year is 316,000 tons [1] - The accident occurred on July 31 near a new section of the underground tunnel network called Andesita, leading to a temporary suspension of mining activities [1][1] Financial Implications - The production decline has resulted in a loss of $340 million, which is slightly higher than the previously estimated loss of $300 million based on a 20,000 to 30,000 ton production decrease [1][1] - The company plans to announce its latest copper production guidance when it releases its financial results for the first half of the year, which has been delayed due to the accident [1][1] Long-term Goals - Codelco's chairman Maximo Pacheco stated that the company aims to maintain a long-term production target of 1.7 million tons of copper annually until 2030 [1][1] - The company had previously set a production target of 1.37 to 1.4 million tons for 2025, slightly above the previous year's output [1][1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The outcome of the September Fed interest rate meeting is highly uncertain, leading to a stalemate between bulls and bears in the market. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is approaching, and the market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cuts. It is expected that Powell will make cautious decisions at the meeting to avoid significant easing. The Russia-Ukraine situation has improved, reducing market risk aversion. On the supply side, refined copper production in May increased by 14.0% year-on-year, and the port inventory of copper concentrates has declined to a five-year low. The collapse of the El Teniente copper mine in Chile has led to a short-term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees for smelters continue to stabilize and rise, with long-term contracts profitable and spot contracts still in the red. The sulfuric acid price is at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. In August, only one smelter has a maintenance plan, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production of refined copper will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or halt production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up. On the demand side, downstream demand is tepid during the off-season, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. Real estate investment and sales have declined, but the power grid and new energy sectors provide demand resilience. The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short-term demand and a loose supply-demand pattern. However, as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, domestic demand is expected to improve. Overall, with the Fed interest rate meeting approaching, the market is in a stalemate, and the market situation is highly uncertain. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the expected peak season demand provides support for the market. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][49]. Summary by Directory Macro Fundamental Information - On August 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI in July was flat at 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month-on-month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 90%. On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI in July soared to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest level since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% month-on-month, the largest increase since June 2022, cooling the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut [5]. Recent Developments in the Copper Mining Sector - Jintian Co., Ltd. announced on August 13 that with the rapid development of the AI industry driving the growth of chip computing power demand, copper materials have become the core materials for advanced chip interconnection and heat dissipation due to their excellent electrical and thermal conductivity. The company's high-precision special-shaped oxygen-free copper busbar products have been mass-produced in the 3DVC new AI heat dissipation structure and have reached strategic cooperation with global leading heat dissipation module enterprises, and are applied in multiple top-level GPU heat dissipation solutions. The company's self-developed copper heat pipes, liquid-cooled copper tubes and other products have also been successfully introduced into the computing power servers of multiple leading enterprises [7]. - On August 14, foreign media reported that Chilean mining company Antofagasta's semi-annual report showed that its core profit increased by nearly 60% year-on-year. Driven by the strong global copper demand and rising prices, its EBITDA increased from $1.39 billion in the same period last year to $2.23 billion, slightly higher than market expectations [9]. Analysis of LME Copper and SHFE Copper Prices - This week, copper prices fluctuated upward. As of August 19, the highest price of SHFE copper during the week was 79,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 0.97% and an interval decline of -0.16%. The highest price of LME copper during the week was $9,865/ton, the lowest was $9,680/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 1.88% and an interval decline of -1.58% [10]. - As of August 20, the average spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 60 yuan/ton. The market supply was tight, and the number of domestic smelter maintenance increased, leading to a stronger spot premium. It is expected that the premium will face pressure after the arrival of imported goods next month [16]. Copper Supply Side - According to customs data, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of August 15, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 422,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from the previous week [19]. - The El Teniente copper mine under Codelco in Chile suffered a mine collapse on July 31, with a magnitude of 4.2, resulting in the death of six miners. The smelter restarted on August 13 [19]. - As of August 15, the spot TC in China was -37.65 dollars/dry ton, and the RC was -3.76 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rise. The result of the mid-year long-term contract negotiation was set at 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. Long-term contracts were profitable, while spot contracts were still in the red. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Factory seasonal maintenance plans will still lead to production cuts in September and October [22][23]. - In June 2025, the import volume of scrap copper was 183,200 tons, higher than expected. The increase in the price difference between refined and scrap copper reduced the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and smelters reduced their scrap copper usage rate [28]. - In July 2025, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 39,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.21%. The cumulative production from January to July was 7.7673 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. The smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier gradually resumed production. Currently, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production will not fluctuate significantly. However, production may be cut or halted in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up [28][29]. - China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in July were 480,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [29]. Copper Inventory Data - After the end of the copper siphon effect and a large increase in LME copper inventory, the inventory build-up speed has recently slowed down. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous week and an increase of 28.76% from the previous month. The inventory build-up speed at COMEX has also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 267,200 tons, an increase of 1.16% from the previous week and an increase of 11.59% from the previous month [31]. - On August 18, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 94,300 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 88,100 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 6,200 tons, an increase of 800 tons from August 11 and unchanged from August 14. The inventory in the bonded areas continued to increase due to the arrival of export goods from some smelters [31]. - The SHFE inventory has remained at a low level with slight fluctuations and has not increased significantly. However, it increased by 2,423 tons compared to the previous week, reflecting weak downstream demand and a loose supply-demand pattern in the short term [31]. Downstream Terminal Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. China's refined copper consumption is expected to increase by approximately 2% in 2025 and by approximately 0.8% in 2026 [40]. - Downstream demand is tepid, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. However, the power grid and new energy sectors have strong resilience, providing support for copper prices [40]. - According to Steel Union data, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod in July 2025 was 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The operating rate was lower than expected, and downstream cable procurement was cautious, putting pressure on copper rod processing fees. Refined copper rod enterprises showed unexpected production cuts, and the current operating load is at a historically low level. It is expected that the production reduction in August will be limited [40]. - The operating load of copper tube enterprises remained basically stable, with a slight downward trend. Some manufacturers planned to increase production due to concerns about future supply shortages. Market demand was weak, and there was also periodic restocking [40]. - From January to July, the retail sales of air conditioners increased by 16.7% year-on-year, maintaining a steady upward trend in the first half of the year. In August, the growth rate of the retail end turned negative for the first time, with a 6% and 19% decline in online and offline sales respectively in the first week of August. The domestic sales production plan for air conditioners in September was 5.082 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and the export production plan was 4.785 million units, a significant decrease of 14.6% [40]. - According to the National Energy Administration, the investment in power grid projects from January to June was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, reaching a historical high for the same period. The investment in power source projects from January to June was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% respectively. Power grid projects remain a rigid downstream demand for copper, supporting copper prices [46]. - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year-on-year. From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4.9566 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June [46].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profitability in the first half of the year, achieving a revenue of $580 million, up 178% year-on-year, and a net profit of $200 million, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The production and sales data for core products indicate strong performance, with gold production of 2.74 tons and copper production of 34,900 tons in the first half of the year, suggesting a high likelihood of exceeding annual production guidance [1] Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved Q1/Q2 revenues of $273 million and $307 million respectively, with Q2 showing a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The net profit for Q1/Q2 was $85 million and $115 million respectively, with Q2 reflecting a 35% quarter-on-quarter growth [1] Production and Sales Data - Gold production for the first half was 2.74 tons, with Q1/Q2 production of 1.39 tons and 1.35 tons respectively; gold sales were 2.94 tons, with Q1/Q2 sales of 1.50 tons and 1.44 tons [1] - Copper production reached 34,900 tons, with Q1/Q2 production of 16,900 tons and 18,000 tons; copper sales were 34,300 tons, with Q1/Q2 sales of 16,700 tons and 17,600 tons [1] Cost Structure - The unit production cost for gold at Changshanhao was $1,619 per ounce, with Q1/Q2 costs of $1,625 and $1,612 per ounce respectively [2] - The unit production cost for copper at Jiama was $3.29 per pound, with Q1/Q2 costs of $3.41 and $3.19 per pound; after deducting by-product credits, the copper unit cost was $0.53 per pound for the first half, with Q1/Q2 costs of $0.73 and $0.33 per pound, indicating significant cost optimization in Q2 [2] Operational Insights - Changshanhao gold mine operates as an open-pit mining operation with a designed capacity of 60,000 tons per day, reduced to 40,000 tons per day as of July 2019; the mine is approaching the end of its life, with underground operations expected to commence around 2029-2030 [3] - Jiama copper-gold polymetallic mine employs both underground and open-pit mining methods, with a combined capacity of 50,000 tons per day; operations were halted due to tailings overflow in March 2023, but are expected to resume in May 2024 with a reduced capacity of 34,000 tons per day [3] - The company is actively advancing the construction of a third tailings storage facility, expected to be completed and operational by mid-2027, which will increase total daily processing capacity to 44,000 tons [3]