1. Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: PVC Weekly Report: Monitor Policy Changes and Reduce Long Positions [1] - Investment Rating: Not explicitly provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the PVC market was policy - driven and trended strongly with fluctuations. The V2509 contract fluctuated between 4949 and 5391 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the fundamental situation is deteriorating marginally, but the market is still dominated by policy expectations. Although there are factors restricting the upward movement of the market, such as the release of new production capacity and the emergence of risk - free arbitrage space, given that the policy expectations cannot be falsified, attention should be paid to policy changes in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market Review - **Price Movement**: This week, the PVC futures price fluctuated between 4949 and 5391 yuan/ton, with an opening price of 4956 and a closing price of 5373. Driven by stable - growth policies and various market news, the price reached a weekly high of 5391 yuan/ton on Friday [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC main contract was 5373 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 436), and the open interest was 860,000 lots (weekly decrease of 124,000), with the de - stocking speed of open interest significantly accelerating [12] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the PVC Changzhou basis was - 213 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 116), and the number of warehouse receipts was 54,412 lots (weekly increase of 1771). The delivery volume in June was 35,000 tons, at a neutral level year - on - year [14] - **Calendar Spread**: As of Friday, the V9 - 1 spread was - 113 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 6) [17] - **Regional and Variety Spreads**: This week, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was significantly driven by coal, and the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC narrowed [20] 3.2 Macro Review and Outlook - **This Week's Macro Events**: The market was affected by policies such as stable - growth policies, rumors of coal mine production rectification, and the release of the draft amendment to the Price Law. The overall weekly increase was PVC > energy and chemicals > polyolefins > commodities [21] - **Next Week's Focus**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes [21] 3.3 Monthly Balance Sheet - **Capacity and Production**: In the first quarter, 500,000 tons of new production capacity from Xinpu Chemical was put into operation, and a 300,000 - ton ethylene - based device from Shaanxi Jintai was launched at the beginning of June. In July, a total of 900,000 tons of production capacity from Wanhua Fujian and Bohua Development was gradually released [22][23] - **Supply and Demand Data**: The production, import, export, and apparent consumption of PVC from January to December 2025 are presented in the table, with the production showing a cumulative year - on - year increase, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in apparent consumption gradually narrowing [22] 3.4 Supply - This week, the PVC output was 450,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. From January to week 30, the cumulative year - on - year output increased by 3.9%. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC in China is expected to reach 76.86%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [26] 3.5 Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream operating rate was 42%. The operating rates of profiles and films improved significantly, while the operating rate of pipes declined for three consecutive weeks [28] 3.6 Exports - From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC was 1.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50%. In May, the domestic PVC export volume was 260,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21% [31] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC floor was 2.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. In June, the export volume of PVC floor was 320,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% [36] 3.7 Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the large - sample social inventory of PVC was 680,000 tons (weekly increase of 26,000), with continuous inventory accumulation for five weeks, totaling 114,000 tons. The enterprise inventory was 360,000 tons (weekly decrease of 10,000), with continuous inventory reduction for five weeks, mainly due to the increase in upstream pre - sales volume [39] 3.8 Profit - The profit of PVC has been significantly repaired. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 181 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a growth rate of 57.6%, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 89 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a growth rate of 14.9% [9] 3.9 Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: Hold long positions, and some can take profits at high prices. Focus on the range of [5100, 5450] for V2509 [5] - **Hedging Strategy**: Since the futures price is higher than the spot price, industrial customers can sell on the futures market at high prices for hedging [5]