Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower policy interest rates in September, three months earlier than previously predicted [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its rate cut forecast, indicating that the impact of tariff policies this year is slightly less than expected, while other deflationary forces are stronger [1] - Mericle estimates that the likelihood of a rate cut in September is "slightly above" 50%, with expected cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, and further cuts in March and June 2026 [2][5] - The terminal rate forecast has been revised down to 3-3.25% from a previous estimate of 3.5-3.75% [2][4] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Outlook - Some Federal Reserve officials have hinted that if upcoming inflation data is not too high, they may support a rate cut in September [5] - Evidence suggests that the transmission effect of tariffs on consumer prices is lower than previously expected, with inflation expectations indicators showing a decline [5] - There are signs that anti-inflation factors are at play, including slowing wage growth and a decline in job vacancies, which may influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [5]