Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower policy interest rates in September, three months earlier than previously predicted [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its rate cut forecast, indicating that the impact of tariff policies this year is slightly less than expected, while other deflationary forces are stronger [1] - Mericle estimates that the likelihood of a rate cut in September is "slightly above" 50%, with expected cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, and further cuts in March and June 2026 [2][5] - The terminal rate forecast has been revised down to 3-3.25% from a previous estimate of 3.5-3.75% [2][4] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Outlook - Some Federal Reserve officials have hinted that if upcoming inflation data is not too high, they may support a rate cut in September [5] - Evidence suggests that the transmission effect of tariffs on consumer prices is lower than previously expected, with inflation expectations indicators showing a decline [5] - There are signs that anti-inflation factors are at play, including slowing wage growth and a decline in job vacancies, which may influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, highlighted significant uncertainty regarding the level of terminal interest rates [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England is facing challenges in determining the future trajectory of interest rates due to various economic factors [1] - Bailey emphasized that the current economic environment is complex, making it difficult to predict the ultimate peak of interest rates [1] - The uncertainty surrounding terminal rates could impact monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行管理委员会委员弗朗索瓦·维勒鲁瓦·德加洛在接受专访时重申，欧洲央行 仍保留未来半年内启动降息的政策空间。这位法国央行行长指出，当前市场评估显示通胀预期整体保持 温和态势，若这一趋势得以延续，未来六个货币政策周期内进一步放宽货币条件存在合理预期。 维勒鲁瓦特别强调，近期欧元对主要货币的大幅升值客观上形成了对国际油价上涨的对冲效应。他判断 欧元区经济运行已回归常态化轨道，但明确区分了中性利率与终端利率两个关键概念："虽然两者在特 定条件下可能数值趋同，但从政策逻辑本质而言，中性利率代表既不刺激也不收缩经济的理论平衡点， 而终端利率则是加息周期的最终政策锚点，二者在政策框架中承担不同功能定位。" 谈及外部风险因素，维勒鲁瓦将中东地缘政治局势列为"新的重大不确定性"，认为该地区局势演变存在 双向波动可能。针对能源市场波动，他表示欧洲央行正密切监测国际油价走势，但强调"单纯油价变动 不足以触发政策响应"，只有当能源价格波动通过二次效应传导至核心通胀，并引发通胀预期脱锚风险 时，货币政策调整才会纳入决策考量。 对于欧美贸易关系潜在变化，维勒鲁瓦评估认为，若贸易紧张局势出现实质性升级，将通过抑制 ...

日本央行审议委员野口旭称，日本央行在加息过程中不应事先设定终端 利率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should not pre-set a terminal interest rate during the interest rate hike process [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the importance of flexibility in monetary policy as the Bank of Japan navigates interest rate adjustments [1] - It suggests that setting a predetermined terminal rate could limit the central bank's ability to respond to changing economic conditions [1] - The commentary reflects ongoing discussions about the appropriate approach to interest rate management in Japan's economic context [1]

智通财经5月16日电，欧洲央行管委MARTINS KAZAKS表示，若基准情景不变，则接近终端利率，无 需急于降息。 ...

英国央行行长贝利：市场预期的3.5%终端利率并非不合理。 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，法国外贸银行表示，此次美联储会议结果完全符合政策制定者的前期指引，因此并 未改变我们对美联储的预期：预计降息周期将于9月重启，并可能在连续多次会议上降息，直至终端利 率达到3%。我们对今年的基准预测是失业率将温和上升而非飙升，在此相对良性的情景下，美联储将 待通胀反复风险消除后才会放宽政策。但需警惕下行风险——若就业市场的潜在脆弱性爆发，美联储或 被迫在9月前降息，且幅度可能超出我们基准预测的25个基点。 法国外贸银行：仍预期美联储9月重启降息周期 终端利率料达到3% ...