Core Viewpoint - Pierre Andurand, a renowned oil trader, faced a dramatic failure in his cocoa market bets, resulting in significant losses for his flagship fund, which reported a 57% loss year-to-date as of June 2025, contrasting sharply with a 50% return in 2024 [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Overview - Andurand's flagship fund, "Andurand Commodity Fund," experienced a staggering 57% loss in 2025, following a remarkable 50% return in 2024 [1][4]. - The fund's performance history shows volatility, with returns of -55% in 2023, 59% in 2022, and 87% in 2021, indicating a pattern of extreme fluctuations [4]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Strategies - In March 2024, Andurand shifted focus to cocoa, predicting that adverse weather and crop diseases in West Africa would severely impact global supply, leading to a significant price increase [3]. - Following a successful initial investment in cocoa, where the fund capitalized on a price surge, Andurand predicted cocoa prices could exceed $20,000 later in 2024 [4]. Group 3: Misjudgments and Market Reactions - In early 2025, cocoa prices began to decline due to concerns over demand, leading to substantial losses for the fund, including a 17% drop in January and a nearly 25% decline in February [7]. - A critical misjudgment occurred in April 2025 when Andurand increased bullish positions based on expected coffee processing data, which ultimately backfired due to market volatility triggered by a tariff announcement from Trump [7]. - Despite the setbacks, Andurand remains optimistic about future cocoa prices, maintaining a bullish stance on the market fundamentals [8].