Group 1 - West Africa, the largest cocoa-producing region, is facing another disappointing harvest season due to structural issues like aging trees and crop diseases, despite improved weather conditions [1] - Ivory Coast is expected to harvest 1.4 million tons of cocoa beans from October to March, while Ghana's forecast is much bleaker at only 620,000 tons, significantly below historical highs, indicating continued global cocoa supply tightness [1] - The inventory-to-use ratio, a key indicator of supply and demand, is near its lowest level since 1981, with U.S. cocoa inventories also significantly below the 10-year average [1] Group 2 - Cocoa supply shortages will pressure chocolate manufacturers and keep cocoa and related product prices high, with current cocoa futures prices still well above the five-year average despite a 40% drop from last December's peak [4] - JPMorgan predicts cocoa prices will remain above $6,000 per ton, with the market expected to trade at high levels for the long term, while Citigroup forecasts prices could reach $7,000 per ton next year, more than double the long-term average [4] Group 3 - The next three months are critical for cocoa pod development, with potential drought conditions in August posing risks to the harvest [7] - Cameroon is a bright spot in the region, with cocoa production expected to increase by 12% to 300,000 tons, while Nigeria's production is projected to decline by 11% to 305,000 tons due to adverse weather patterns [7] - Even if cocoa production in West Africa recovers, it will start from a low base after two poor seasons, threatening the region's dominance in the global cocoa market amid expanding capacities in countries like Ecuador [7]