1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy may face challenges as inflation re - heats in September, retail sales growth slows, and the Fed may need to cut interest rates. The peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict is making progress, which could potentially impact global markets. In the domestic market, the A - share market rebounds, and the bond market shows mixed performance. The commodity market has different trends in various sectors such as metals, energy, and agriculture [3][22][31] - The report also provides macro - economic data, which shows the current economic situation such as GDP growth, PMI, and inflation rates in the domestic market, and also includes information on international economic data and events that may affect the global and domestic investment environment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2%. The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49%, down from 49.8% in the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from 50% [1] - Social financing scale in October 2025 was 816.1 billion yuan, a significant drop from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates all declined compared to the previous month [1] - CPI in October 2025 was 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The China - US leaders' phone call was initiated by the US, with a positive atmosphere. The US is making progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the Fed may cut interest rates [2][3] - On November 25, 47 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 22 had negative basis.沪镍, 郑棉, and铸造铝合金 had the largest basis [2] 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose due to factors such as the Fed's potential rate cut, the uncertain situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and concerns about the US fiscal deficit [5] - Zinc, copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and nickel inventories in the London Metal Exchange changed on November 24. Hong Kong's gold exports to the Chinese mainland decreased in October [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - November, the prices of coke, coking coal, and rebar all increased. However, the increase in coke prices has squeezed steel mills' profits, and coke prices may face downward pressure at the end of the month or early December [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Norway aims to maintain its oil and gas production at 2020 levels by 2035 and will invest about 60 billion Norwegian kroner. European natural gas prices are expected to decline [9] - Iraq's oil exports in October were 110.9 million barrels, and measures are taken to maintain the production of the West Qurna - 2 oilfield [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - November, the prices of corn, wheat, and rice increased, while the price of cotton decreased. The price of natural rubber rose [11] - The inventory of breeding sows in China decreased, and the pig price is expected to rise moderately before the Spring Festival. The breeding of poultry and eggs is expected to face losses [12] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 25, the central bank conducted 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 105.4 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Key News - The US is making progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the China - US leaders' phone call is positive. The Chinese government will hold a press conference on promoting consumption [15][16] - China's foreign direct investment and overseas project contracting increased from January to October. Local government special bonds are being issued for government investment funds [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market - The A - share market is strong, while the bond market is weak. The yields of medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds generally increased, and the prices of some bonds of Vanke decreased significantly [22] - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, and the convertible bond index rose. The money market interest rates had different trends [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell. Non - US currencies generally rose [27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December is uncertain. Active management bond funds can break the situation through strategies such as "fixed income +" and medium - long - term credit amortization [28][29] - For 2026, it is recommended to set the GDP target at around 5% and implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [29] 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market rebounded, with lithium mines and the Fujian sector performing strongly. The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and the repurchase amount of A - shares and Hong Kong stocks reached a high level this year [31][32] - Multiple funds have reported new ETF products [32]

Group 1: Economic Partnership and Trade Agreements - China is actively signing economic partnership agreements to implement 100% zero-tariff measures on products for 53 African countries, with the Republic of Congo being the first beneficiary [1] - China has maintained its position as Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with trade volume expected to reach 2.1 trillion yuan in 2024, setting a new historical record [1] Group 2: Agricultural Trade Growth - The bilateral trade structure between China and Africa is diversifying, with African agricultural products becoming a significant highlight, as imports of agricultural products from Africa to China are projected to exceed 70 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - In the first five months of this year, China imported 15.83 billion yuan worth of agricultural products from Africa, with notable increases in coffee (145.7%), cocoa beans (88.6%), and frozen strawberries (82%) [2] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure Development - In 2024, China's direct investment in Africa is expected to reach 3.37 billion USD, primarily concentrated in construction, mining, and manufacturing sectors [6] - Chinese enterprises have participated in the construction and renovation of over 10,000 kilometers of railways and nearly 100,000 kilometers of roads across Africa, significantly enhancing regional connectivity [9][10] Group 4: Clean Energy Initiatives - China plays a crucial role in Africa's energy transition, focusing on solar power projects that leverage Africa's abundant solar resources [7] - A solar energy storage project in Côte d'Ivoire, with an investment exceeding 50 million euros, aims to provide stable electricity to 30,000 households and reduce the electricity abandonment rate from 35% to below 5% [8] Group 5: Agricultural Cooperation and Food Security - Chinese agricultural technology has been instrumental in promoting rice cultivation in Guinea-Bissau, increasing the rice planting area from 60,000 hectares to 100,000 hectares [12] - The introduction of hybrid rice varieties has led to significant yield improvements, with some varieties achieving over 10 tons per hectare [12]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Nigeria aims to build a high-level community of shared destiny, with a focus on enhancing trade and investment opportunities between the two nations [1][8]. Group 1: Trade Relations - China has opened its market to Nigerian peanuts, granting zero-tariff treatment, which is expected to attract significant interest from Chinese buyers during the China International Import Expo [1]. - Currently, China has implemented 100% zero-tariff products for 33 African countries, enhancing the price competitiveness of African goods in the Chinese market [3]. - The goal is to achieve a trade volume of 1 billion USD between China and Nigeria before the tenth China International Import Expo [8]. Group 2: Nigeria's Participation in the Expo - Hassan Mohammed, the Deputy Regional Investment and Trade Commissioner at the Nigerian Consulate in Shanghai, has participated in the China International Import Expo for eight consecutive years, witnessing significant changes in the perception of Nigerian agricultural products like cashews, sesame, and peanuts [5][7]. - The Expo has provided a platform for Nigerian businesses to showcase their products and connect directly with Chinese enterprises, facilitating fruitful commercial cooperation [7]. Group 3: Logistics and Market Access - The "Belt and Road" initiative has improved logistics channels, reducing shipping times from African ports to the Chinese market by 10 to 15 days, further enhancing trade efficiency [3].

Core Viewpoint - Nigeria aims to become China's largest trading partner in Africa, leveraging platforms like the China International Import Expo (CIIE) to enhance trade relations and showcase its agricultural products [1][2]. Group 1: CIIE Participation and Impact - Hassan Mohammed, Nigeria's Deputy Regional Investment and Trade Commissioner, has attended all seven editions of CIIE, noting significant changes and opportunities for Nigerian businesses [2][4]. - At the seventh CIIE, 16 Nigerian companies participated, resulting in 13 commercial agreements, including a contract worth over $1.2 million between Vintage Group and a major Chinese cocoa processing company [4]. - The CIIE has facilitated the rise of Nigerian cashews in the Chinese market, which were previously unfamiliar to consumers, leading to a surge in orders during the event [4]. Group 2: Agricultural Opportunities - Nigeria's rich agricultural products serve as a "golden key" to access the Chinese market, with significant interest in peanuts, as Nigeria is the world's fourth-largest producer [5]. - A cooperation document for peanut exports to China was signed during the 2024 China-Africa Cooperation Forum, presenting new opportunities for Nigeria [5]. - Nigeria aims to utilize the CIIE platform to promote other agricultural products, such as coconuts and flour, enhancing its export potential to China [5]. Group 3: Cultural Exchange and Global Trade - Traditional Nigerian attire, "Adire," showcased at the CIIE, highlights Nigeria's cultural heritage and aims to foster connections with Chinese businesses [6]. - The CIIE has enabled Nigerian exhibitors to establish global trade links, including a sesame trade agreement with a Georgian businessman [6]. - The event is viewed as a critical platform for deepening global trade ties and fostering collaboration among nations [6]. Group 4: Future Collaboration - Nigeria seeks to evolve from a participating country to a collaborative partner at the CIIE, exploring opportunities for bilateral forums and deeper cooperation across various sectors [6][7]. - The relationship between China and Nigeria has been elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership, indicating a commitment to mutual growth and development [6].

Core Viewpoint - The global cocoa market is expected to shift from a supply shortage to a surplus by the 2025/2026 season, as indicated by recent reports from major institutions like Rabobank and Fitch Solutions [4][6]. Supply Side - The end of the El Niño phenomenon, which caused disastrous harvests in West Africa, is being replaced by La Niña, leading to more stable rainfall in key cocoa-producing regions like Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. This climatic shift is expected to increase cocoa bean production in the 2025/26 season [8]. - High cocoa prices in 2024, despite limited profits for farmers, have encouraged some reinvestment in farming practices, including increased use of fertilizers and pesticides, which may boost production [8]. Demand Side - The high prices of cocoa have led to a significant decline in global chocolate sales by volume in 2025, as consumers and brands are deterred by retail prices [10]. - Brands are forced to permanently alter their recipes to reduce expensive cocoa content, substituting with cheaper fillers like nuts, wafers, caramel, and palm oil [10]. Price Dynamics - Despite the anticipated surplus, chocolate prices are unlikely to decrease in the near term due to several factors: - Brands are still clearing out high-cost inventory purchased at prices around $10,000 per ton [16]. - Price rigidity means that once prices have increased, they rarely decrease, as consumers have accepted higher price points [16]. - Brands are focused on recovering profit margins that were squeezed by high costs over the past year, rather than passing savings onto consumers [18]. Conclusion - The transition from high prices to surplus presents different outcomes for various stakeholders: - Farmers may face new challenges as they have increased investments without yet seeing profits [22]. - Brands are entering a period of profit recovery after enduring high costs [22]. - Consumers may see a pause in the trend of "shrinkflation," where product sizes decrease without a corresponding price drop [22]. - Overall, the industry may have entered a "high-price chocolate" era, with little hope for significant price reductions in the future [24].

Economic Growth and Recovery - Côte d'Ivoire has achieved an average economic growth rate of 7% over the past decade, emerging from the devastation of civil wars to become a leading economy in Sub-Saharan Africa [1] - Following the end of conflicts in 2011, the government implemented a national development plan that led to an average GDP growth of approximately 9.6% from 2012 to 2015 [5][6] Agricultural Sector and Cocoa Industry - Côte d'Ivoire is the world's largest cocoa producer, contributing 40% of global cocoa beans, but has historically been trapped in low-value raw material exports [7] - The government aims to achieve 100% local processing of cocoa beans by 2030, with current local conversion rates at about 33% [10] - A new state-owned cocoa processing plant, capable of processing 50,000 tons annually, has recently commenced operations [10] Infrastructure Development - Côte d'Ivoire is the second-largest economy in the West African Economic Community and is actively enhancing its infrastructure to become a regional economic hub [13] - The country has a total road length of 82,500 kilometers, accounting for 50% of the total road length in the West African Economic and Monetary Union [16] - The Abidjan port, the largest container port in West Africa, has increased its annual throughput from 1.2 million to 2.5 million standard containers after upgrades [16] Private Sector Activation - The government has adopted a "flooding the market" approach to stimulate the private economy through policy relaxation and market opening [17] - In 2023, over 25,000 new businesses were registered in Côte d'Ivoire, reflecting a vibrant entrepreneurial environment [17] - The collaboration between public and private sectors has resulted in an average economic growth rate of 6.5% from 2021 to 2023, despite global challenges [17]

Group 1: China-Africa Cooperation - The "Ten Partnership Actions" proposed by President Xi Jinping at the China-Africa Cooperation Forum in September 2024 have received high praise and broad response from African countries, indicating a strong direction for deepening practical cooperation between China and Africa [2][3] - In the first seven months of this year, China's imports from the least developed African countries reached $39.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, showcasing the growing trade ties and the entry of various African specialty products into the Chinese market [3] - Chinese enterprises are enhancing investment quality and efficiency in Africa through overseas economic and trade cooperation zones, contributing to the industrialization of Africa and increasing the local processing rate from 15% to 45% [3][4] Group 2: Inbound Consumption - The number of duty-free shops for outbound tax refunds has increased significantly, exceeding 7,200, reflecting a growing focus on inbound consumption as an important area for expansion [5][6] - In the first half of this year, over 19 million inbound foreign visitors were recorded, a 30% year-on-year increase, with tax refund sales growing by 95%, indicating a robust recovery in inbound consumption [6] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance the international consumption environment and promote various consumer activities to attract more foreign visitors and Chinese residents to experience shopping in China [6] Group 3: China-U.S. Trade Relations - China's trade negotiation representative, Li Chenggang, is set to visit Washington for discussions, emphasizing the importance of dialogue in maintaining healthy and stable China-U.S. trade relations [7] - The Ministry of Commerce is committed to supporting foreign trade enterprises in maintaining orders and expanding markets, focusing on policy support and assistance for enterprises facing various challenges [8] - Efforts will be made to help enterprises explore diversified international markets and utilize trade promotion activities effectively [8]

Group 1: China-US Economic Relations - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the importance of continuing dialogue and cooperation with the US to maintain a healthy and stable economic relationship [1] - Chinese delegation led by Li Chenggang visited Canada and will meet US officials in Washington to discuss trade issues [1] Group 2: China-Africa Economic Cooperation - China imported $39.66 billion from the least developed African countries from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, enhancing consumer choices in China and supporting African industries [2] - Chinese enterprises are investing in Africa through overseas economic cooperation zones, focusing on sectors like agricultural processing, home appliances, logistics, and renewable energy [2] - The IMF report highlights that China-Africa cooperation contributes 1-2 percentage points to Africa's economic growth annually, with local processing rates in Africa increasing from 15% to 45% due to Chinese investments [2] Group 3: Green Development Initiatives - Chinese electric vehicles and solar products are gaining popularity in Africa, supported by Chinese financial institutions establishing special funds for green industries [3] - Initiatives include clean energy projects and digital economy cooperation, such as e-commerce training programs and the establishment of a digital verification platform [3] - The Ministry of Commerce aims to further implement the "Ten Partnership Actions" to enhance economic integration and shared development between China and Africa [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in trade between China and the least developed countries in Africa, with imports from these nations increasing by 10.2% year-on-year in the first seven months of the year, reaching $39.66 billion [1] - China actively supports the least developed African countries by providing zero-tariff treatment on 100% of product categories, facilitating the entry of unique African products into the Chinese market, which enriches consumer choices in China [1] - Notable products imported include avocados from Kenya, Arabica coffee beans from Ethiopia, and cocoa beans from Cameroon, which have contributed to the development of related industries in Africa [1] Group 2 - The article discusses how industrial chain cooperation is enhancing the quality and efficiency of investments in Africa, with Chinese enterprises establishing economic cooperation zones that foster industrial clusters and deepen investment in sectors like agricultural processing, home appliances, logistics, and renewable energy [2] - Chinese investments have increased the local processing rate in Africa from 15% to 45%, significantly contributing to the continent's industrialization and integration into global supply chains [2] - The International Monetary Fund's report indicates that trade between China and Africa contributes 1-2 percentage points to Africa's economic growth annually, underscoring the importance of this partnership [2] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the role of green development in fostering cooperation in emerging fields, with Chinese electric vehicles and photovoltaic products gaining popularity in African nations [2] - Chinese financial institutions are establishing special funds for green industrial chains, supporting numerous clean energy projects in Africa, which aligns with the continent's green development goals [2] - Initiatives such as the "Cloud Classroom" for e-commerce and the establishment of a digital verification platform for trade are aimed at enhancing digital talent in Africa and deepening digital economic cooperation between China and Africa [2]

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of excessive tariffs by the United States is hindering the industrial development and economic growth of African countries [1] Group 1: Impact on Exports - African countries primarily export raw materials, such as cocoa beans from Ghana and Ivory Coast, and coffee beans from Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, to the United States [1] - The excessive tariffs imposed by the U.S. increase the prices of these exported products, leading to a decline in their competitiveness in the international market [1] Group 2: Economic Development - The economic growth of these African nations is significantly dependent on raw material exports, and the tariffs will obstruct their economic development [1] Group 3: Employment Effects - The excessive tariffs will make it difficult for African enterprises to maintain sufficient profit margins and competitiveness in a highly competitive environment [3] - To sustain operations, these companies may resort to layoffs, resulting in job losses across African nations [5]