Core Viewpoint - China has officially announced an expansion of its zero-tariff policy, providing more export facilitation to African countries, particularly benefiting agricultural exports from nations like Kenya and Ethiopia [1][2][6]. Group 1: Zero-Tariff Policy Impact - The zero-tariff policy will cover 100% of product categories for 53 African countries, enhancing trade relations and economic partnerships [1]. - Kenya's avocado exports to China have significantly increased, with expectations that exports could account for 40% of the country's avocado production due to the zero-tariff policy [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China imported approximately 6,892.5 tons of Kenyan avocados, valued at around 90 million RMB, making Kenya the third-largest avocado supplier to China [1]. Group 2: Tea and Coffee Exports - Kenya's tea exports to China are expected to quadruple by 2030, with a 175.2% year-on-year increase in tea imports from Kenya in the first quarter of 2025 [2]. - Ethiopia's coffee exports to China reached $102 million in 2024, a 377.67% increase compared to 2020, benefiting from the zero-tariff access [2][3]. Group 3: Other Agricultural Products - Rwanda's chili pepper exports have gained momentum since 2021, with a significant project initiated in 2024 to enhance production and export capabilities [4][5]. - The collaboration between Chinese and Rwandan companies has improved infrastructure and quality in the chili pepper supply chain, leading to increased exports [5]. - Cocoa from West African countries like Togo and Côte d'Ivoire is also expected to benefit from the new zero-tariff policy, as they seek to expand their market share in China [6]. Group 4: Trade Growth Statistics - The trade volume between China and Africa surpassed 2 trillion RMB in 2024, with agricultural imports from Africa reaching 158.3 billion RMB in the first five months of the current year [6]. - The zero-tariff policy has led to a notable increase in the export scale and variety of African agricultural products entering the Chinese market [6].

Group 1 - The article highlights the shift of African countries towards China due to the imposition of high tariffs by the United States, which has led to a collective decision among 53 African nations to seek closer ties with China [1][3][6] - The U.S. tariffs, which include a 15% tax on 18 African countries and 25%-30% on four specific nations, are described as a "tariff trap" that disproportionately affects economically vulnerable nations [1][3] - In contrast, China has implemented a zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries since December 2024, covering all product categories, which has significantly boosted trade between China and Africa [3][4] Group 2 - The article notes that the trade volume between China and Africa reached $295.6 billion in 2024, marking the highest level globally for four consecutive years, with China maintaining its position as Africa's largest trading partner for 16 years [4][6] - African businesses have reported substantial increases in sales due to the elimination of tariffs, with one café owner stating that coffee bean sales tripled after the introduction of zero tariffs [4][6] - The article emphasizes the historical ties between Africa and China, citing the support African nations provided to China during its bid for UN recognition, which has fostered a sense of loyalty and mutual benefit in current trade relations [6][8] Group 3 - African scholars express a desire for China to become a global leader akin to the United States, viewing the current U.S. trade policies as detrimental and politically motivated [6][8] - The article discusses the anticipated growth of intra-African trade, projected to increase from $192.2 billion in 2023 to $520 billion by 2030, highlighting the potential for enhanced economic cooperation among African nations [6][8] - The conclusion drawn is that the U.S. approach has backfired, pushing African nations towards China, which is seen as a more responsible partner willing to invest in long-term relationships and development [8]

Core Points - China is expanding its zero-tariff policy to 53 African countries, effective December 1, 2024, which will significantly lower the cost of African products entering the Chinese market [7][9][10] - This initiative is expected to deepen economic cooperation between China and Africa, enhancing the value-added potential of trade [7][10] Group 1: Economic Impact - The zero-tariff policy will cover a wide range of products, including agricultural goods like coffee, cocoa, and fruits, as well as minerals and industrial products [10][12] - In 2022, trade between China and Africa reached a record high of $295.6 billion, with China maintaining its position as Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years [9][10] - The import of coffee from Africa to China saw a remarkable increase of 70.4% in the first quarter of this year, while cocoa imports rose by 56.8% [9][10] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The policy aims to create more opportunities for African countries to export to China, thereby supporting local economies and enhancing their industrial capabilities [12][14] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly investing in African economic zones, which is expected to create significant employment opportunities and boost local tax revenues [14][15] - The initiative encourages the establishment of processing bases and logistics systems in Africa, facilitating a more integrated trade relationship [15] Group 3: Strategic Development - The expansion of the zero-tariff policy represents a shift from limited, specific agreements to a more comprehensive approach that benefits all African partners equally [11][12] - The initiative is designed to respond to African nations' aspirations for equitable participation in global trade, simplifying customs procedures and enhancing trade facilitation [11][12] - The establishment of a pre-assessment system for African food products is expected to streamline their entry into the Chinese market, further promoting trade [11][12]

作为全球最大可可生产区的西非正面临又一个令人失望的收成季。尽管天气状况较前几个收成季有所改善，但树木老化和作物病害等结构性问题仍可能持续 限制可可产量，并导致可可价格居高不下。 根据对8位交易员和分析师的调查，作为全球最大可可生产国的科特迪瓦预计将在今年10月至明年3月的收成季收获140万吨可可豆，与预期基本相当。但加 纳自本月开始的收成季前景更为严峻，预计将仅收获62万吨可可豆，远低于该国历史最高水平。这一结果意味着全球可可供应仍将持续紧张，尽管在今年全 球可可市场出现了约4万吨的预估短缺后需求疲软带来了些许缓解。 根据国际可可组织的数据，库存与使用比率——衡量供需关系的关键指标——目前接近自1981年以来的最低水平。在美国，由交易所监管的仓库所追踪的可 可库存也大幅低于10年平均水平。 荷兰合作银行分析师Oran van Dort表示："我不认为可可产量会显著恢复。"他指出，在多年的投资不足后，"科特迪瓦和加纳的综合作物产能逐年下降的可 能性越来越大"。 在西非，接下来的三个月至关重要。经历了4月至6月的雨季之后，可可豆荚正进入生长发育的高峰阶段。尽管6月的丰沛降雨缓解了7月干燥季前的担忧，但 据国际投行 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the shift in global trade dynamics, with China becoming the largest bilateral trading partner for almost all countries, surpassing the US [3][5][17] - The US's unilateral tariff policies, particularly under the Trump administration, have led to significant trade disruptions, with tariffs as high as 35% imposed on allies, while China has opened its market to 53 African countries with zero tariffs [5][13][19] - The imposition of tariffs has resulted in a decline in exports from US allies, such as Japan and South Korea, with Japan's exports to the US dropping by 11.4% and South Korea's by 8.1% [9][11][17] Group 2 - China's strategic response to US tariffs includes implementing zero tariffs for African nations, significantly boosting imports of African goods, such as coffee, which saw a 129.5% increase in the first half of the year [13][15][21] - The US's trade policies have adversely affected American companies, with Tesla facing increased costs due to tariffs on Chinese auto parts, leading to price hikes and job cuts [19][25] - European nations are reevaluating their security frameworks and trade relationships with the US, as seen in the coordination of nuclear arsenals between the UK and France, indicating a shift towards independent security strategies [11][25]

Core Viewpoint - China's commitment to expanding trade with African nations through a zero-tariff policy is a strategic move to counteract unfair tariffs imposed by certain countries, particularly the United States, while simultaneously enhancing its own market access and resource stability [1][5]. Group 1: Trade Policy and Economic Impact - China has implemented a zero-tariff policy for 100% of products traded with 53 African countries, which is expected to significantly boost trade volumes and economic cooperation [1][3]. - In the first three months following the implementation of this policy, imports from these African nations surged to $21.42 billion, marking a 15.2% increase [1]. - The zero-tariff initiative allows African businesses to access the Chinese market, which has a population of 1.4 billion, thereby enhancing their competitiveness and income [3]. Group 2: Resource Acquisition and Industry Benefits - The zero-tariff policy enables China to secure essential resources such as minerals and agricultural products, stabilizing its supply chains [3][5]. - For instance, a reduction in tariffs on Niger's sesame seeds resulted in a tax savings of 122,000 yuan for a company in Hubei, showcasing the direct financial benefits of this policy [3]. - The trade relationship has also led to significant increases in imports of coffee and cocoa from Africa, with year-on-year growth rates of 145.7% and 88.6%, respectively [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context and Competitive Advantage - The U.S. has struggled to effectively engage with African nations, as its strategies have been criticized for lacking substantial projects beyond military aid [3][5]. - China's approach contrasts sharply with the U.S. by promoting mutual benefits through trade rather than coercive measures, thereby positioning itself as a more favorable partner for African countries [7]. - The ongoing trade dynamics indicate that while the U.S. imposes tariffs, China is actively reshaping global trade rules to foster inclusivity and equitable growth [5][7].

黄金 金价仍延续3120美元到3500美元的震荡区间。当然不排除地缘政治风险带来的避险升温，带动黄金向上突破3500美元，在7月也没有降息预期的情况下，黄 金向上突破3500美元的概率较低。 白银 在下半年美国降息的预期下，将会推动资金流入贵金属市场进而提振银价。展望未来一个月，白银仍将保持在34.50美元以上的高位震荡，有望继续创出新 高。 铜 第一部分：大类资产核心观点简述 一、贵金属市场 英镑 6月镑美价格一度触及1.37810附近，在英国有更多的降息预期下，市场未来有回调性下跌的风险，短期关注1.34510一线的支撑。中长期来看，结合英国总体 经济保持温和复苏，七月市场有望创新高。 日元 在关税风险不确定的情况下，尤其是以汽车为主导的核心产业，并未传出利好消息，为日本经济蒙上一层阴影。结合技术面来看，美日大概率保持弱势上 行，大概率维持在140.50到149.60区间运行。 三、商品市场 在中美经贸磋商后关税延期到8月，在未来一两月内，美国关税政策风险有所减弱。同时在供给端相对减少的情况下，铜价格在4.85美元有较强的支撑性， 展望未来行情，铜价未来仍有机会维持相对高位，七月铜价仍可能保持4.85美元 ...

一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.70 | 49.50 | 49.50 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.50 | 50.30 | 50.50 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22870.00 11599.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M1(货币):同比 | % | 2.30 | 1.50 | -0.8 ...

各位朋友，我是帮主郑重。今天咱们聊聊全球贸易这场大戏——离7月9日的"大限"只剩两天，特朗普的关税大棒悬在各国头顶，咱们来看看这两天的最新 进展。 八轮谈判估计又是一场硬仗。瑞士这次算是"曲线救国"，美国在232条款里给药品出口开了绿灯，瑞士政府已经默许协议草案，就等特朗普签字。印尼则 拿出1700种商品近零关税的诚意，希望美国把32%的关税降到20%以下，用矿产合作换贸易让步，这算盘打得挺精。 最后说说美国这边的动向。特朗普已经签了12封贸易信函，周一就要发出去，新关税从10%到70%不等，8月1日生效。农业部长那边透风，可能对可可 豆、咖啡这些美国种不了的农产品免税，这算是给发展中国家一点甜头。不过贝森特特意否认8月1日是"新大限"，这表态有点矛盾，看来美国内部对关税 策略也有分歧。 现在这局势就像一场全球贸易棋局，每个国家都在算自己的得失。英国、越南这些达成协议的国家，算是暂时避开了关税大棒，但留下的尾巴随时可能 引爆新争端。欧盟、韩国、日本这些还在谈的，要么硬扛要么找替代方案。而美国呢，看似掌握主动权，但高关税对全球供应链的冲击，最终可能反噬 美国经济。咱们作为投资者，得盯着这些关税变化对行业的影响， ...

Group 1 - The establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Colombia marks its 45th anniversary, with Colombia officially joining the high-quality co-construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative in May [2] - Bilateral trade between China and Colombia is projected to exceed $19.3 billion in 2024, representing a growth of over 1900 times compared to the initial years of diplomatic relations [2] - Colombia aims to enhance agricultural exports to China and seeks to attract more Chinese investments in agriculture, technology, and ecological protection [2] Group 2 - Chinese companies are involved in constructing the Bogotá Metro Line 1, which is the largest infrastructure project in Colombia's history [3] - A new shipping route connecting Shanghai, Peru's Chancay Port, and Colombia's Buenaventura Port was launched in February, further promoting economic cooperation and job creation in Colombia [3] - There is significant potential for agricultural technology cooperation between China and Colombia, particularly in the processing of specialty agricultural products like coffee and cocoa [3] Group 3 - The China-Latin America Forum, which has been operational for 10 years, serves as a crucial platform for regional integration and cooperation between Latin American countries and China [4] - Strengthening collaboration between Latin America and China can enhance the representation and voice of the Global South in global governance [4] - The relationship between Latin America and China is expected to deepen, with ongoing efforts to promote development agendas and enhance global dialogue [4]