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【永新股份(002014.SZ)】包装行业专注分红的价值缔造者——投资价值分析报告(姜浩)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-16 13:55
Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading player in the domestic soft plastic packaging industry, demonstrating steady long-term growth in performance despite challenging market conditions [2]. Industry Overview - The plastic packaging market has a stable long-term demand, with soft plastic packaging gaining traction due to its cost-effectiveness, practicality, convenience in storage, and low production energy consumption. The domestic market size for plastic soft packaging reached approximately 120.5 billion RMB (about 17.22 billion USD) in 2023, marking it as a new "trillion-level" market. The industry is characterized by numerous competitors, but market share is expected to concentrate among leading companies that excel in safety, environmental sustainability, and innovation [3]. Company Highlights - The company has a broad customer base across essential consumer sectors such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and daily chemicals, which provides a degree of demand stability. This demand is somewhat inelastic and can offset fluctuations in costs, showcasing its anti-cyclical properties [4]. - The company's gross margin is on a rising trend due to its "vertical integration," "business expansion overseas," and "product innovation" strategies, which have opened up growth potential [4]. - The company boasts a strong return on equity (ROE) and net cash ratio, indicating robust profit quality and substantial profit margins [4]. - The company has a consistent dividend policy, having distributed cash dividends 21 times since its listing in 2004, with an average payout ratio exceeding 70%. This provides a comparative advantage in a declining interest rate environment [4].