可持续房地产业发展新模式

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快评|中央城市工作会议有关房地产的五点解读
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-07-16 09:28
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a transformation in the real estate industry towards a "high-quality, low-risk, and sustainable" development model, supported by coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides to stabilize the market in the short term and guide long-term growth [1][14]. Summary by Sections Urbanization and Housing Demand - The urbanization rate in China has increased from 53.1% in 2012 to 67% in 2024, with 940 million people living in urban areas. This urbanization has led to over 150 million new jobs and a stable influx of agricultural migrants into cities, which continues to support housing demand [2][3]. - The gap between the permanent urban population and registered urban population remains significant, indicating ongoing rigid housing demand driven by the urbanization of agricultural migrants [3]. Urban Development Strategy - The recent Central Urban Work Conference outlines a shift from rapid urban growth to stable development, focusing on improving existing urban areas rather than expanding them. This includes a more human-centered approach and efficient urban development [3][5]. - The development of urban clusters and metropolitan areas is crucial, with a focus on coordinated growth among cities of different sizes, which will shape the real estate market landscape [5]. County-Level Urbanization - A significant portion of county-level cities (over 50%) has an urbanization rate below 60%, indicating substantial room for growth. These areas house 610 million residents, suggesting a strong potential for housing demand as urbanization progresses [6]. Supply-Side Adjustments - The strategy includes optimizing the supply structure by controlling new real estate development land and enhancing the quality of existing urban areas. This involves revitalizing underutilized land and increasing the supply of high-quality residential properties [8][10]. - The government aims to improve housing quality through new regulations, emphasizing safety, comfort, and sustainability in residential construction [12][13]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The focus on "good housing" is expected to stabilize the new housing market and create a new pricing benchmark, leading to a dynamic balance in supply and demand relationships in the real estate market [13][14]. - The article concludes that the ongoing urbanization will continue to support housing demand, with market share likely concentrating in core urban clusters, while high-quality urban renewal efforts will stimulate demand for improved housing [14].