可持续航空燃料(SAF)产业
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嘉澳环保(603822):第三季度 SAF 量价齐升,公司实现扭亏为盈
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-21 03:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has achieved a turnaround in profitability, with significant revenue growth driven by SAF exports and increased demand in Europe [1][4][13] - The SAF industry has a promising outlook, with substantial demand growth expected due to regulatory requirements in Europe and other regions [3][20][23] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2003, focuses on the research, production, and sales of bio-based plasticizers and biomass energy, with SAF becoming its main product since 2025 [2][10] - The company has built the first domestic 500,000-ton SAF production line using Honeywell technology, with plans for a second line to be operational next year [2][11] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 189.39%, and a net profit turnaround [1][4] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 1.707 billion yuan, up 511.45% year-on-year, with a net profit of 53 million yuan [1][4][13] Industry Outlook - The SAF market is expected to grow significantly, with Europe mandating a 2% SAF blending requirement starting in 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030 [3][20] - The report highlights a supply-demand gap in the SAF market, with European consumption projected to reach 1.9 million tons this year against a production capacity of only 1 million tons [3][25] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 4.465 billion, 7.005 billion, and 9.608 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 87 million, 465 million, and 703 million yuan [4][39] - The report anticipates a significant increase in EPS from 1.13 yuan in 2025 to 9.15 yuan in 2027 [4][39] Valuation - The company's fair valuation range is estimated between 97.75 and 121.00 yuan, based on both absolute and relative valuation methods [4][40][46] - The current stock price is 91.88 yuan, indicating potential upside based on the valuation range [7]