胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：中东地缘风险降温 [Table_T ， itle油价周内 ] 下跌 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] | | | 上次评级——看好 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 10 月 12 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 2025 年 10 月 10 日当周，国际油价下跌。国庆期 间，欧佩克计划 11 月继续增产及库尔德地区原油出口恢复引发供应 过剩担忧，加之美国政府停摆引发经济担忧，国际油价下跌；而后， 特朗普为哈马斯设定最后期限，引发地缘风险担忧，欧佩 ...

路透社10月8日报道，阿根廷政府发布官方决议宣布，至2025年12月31日期间临时 取消钢铝及其衍生品的出口关税，适用范围为对上述商品征收至少45%进口关税的国 家。阿经济部表示，此举旨在提升出口能力及产业竞争力，推动贸易政策向更开放方 向调整。此次调整是阿近期贸易政策系列变动之一，政府上月曾短暂暂停大豆、玉 米、小麦及生物柴油等农产品出口税以促进外汇收入，但该措施实施不足一周即告终 止。 （原标题：阿根廷临时取消钢铝及其衍生品出口税） ...

马来西亚政府在周五发布的2026年预算中公布的经济展望报告中表示，由于全球产量增加和其他植物油 产量增加，明年毛棕榈油均价料为每吨3900-4100马币。 船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚10月1-10日棕榈油出口量为523602吨，较上月同期出口的476610 吨增加9.86%。 二、基本面汇总 一、行情回顾 周五夜盘，棕榈油期货主力合约小幅收跌0.86%，报9406.00元/吨。 马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB公布数据显示，截至9月底，马来西亚棕榈油库存较上月增加7.20%，达到 236.1万吨。 三、机构观点 铜冠金源期货：宏观方面，美国政府持续停摆导致经济数据发布处于真空期，美元指数上涨；原油震荡 收跌。基本面上，产地棕榈油生产将进入淡季，供应预期收缩，需求端印尼B40，印度进口等需求仍 在，预计马棕油库存将下降，关注即将发布的MPOB报告。叠加印尼政府重申明年将实施B50政策，扩 大生柴需求，题材炒作提供支撑。预计短期棕榈油宽幅震荡运行，关注上方压力区间。 中辉期货：印尼政府考虑设定汽油中的生物乙醇的强制含量标准为10%，试图扩大使用由棕榈油和甘蔗 制成的生物燃料；另外印尼能源部官员称B50生物柴油政 ...

油脂异动点评：MPOB 报告或显示 9 月马来西亚棕 榈油库存回落，盘面于节后补涨 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 王泽辉（投资咨询资格编号：Z0019938） 2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 电话：020-88818064 邮箱：wangzehui@gf.com.cn 行情导读：国庆节后首日，棕榈油盘面迎来大涨，截至收盘，棕榈油 P2601 合约涨幅达到 4.13%，收 9570 点，盘中一度窜高至 9580 点。 驱动分析一：基本面呈现供降需增局面，9 月产地库存或出现拐点 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）将于 10 月 10 日公布官方月度报告。一项行业调查显示，马来西亚 9 月棕榈油库存将出现 2 月份以来首次下滑，因为出口增长而产量下滑。其中产量预计为 179.4 万吨， 环比下降 3.3%，出口量预计为 142.7 万吨，环比增长 7.7%，库存将降至 214.6 万吨，环比下降 2.5%。 马来西亚棕榈油协会(MPOA)称，2025 年 9 月马来西亚棕榈油产量预估为 181 万吨，环比下降 2.35%， 其中马来西亚半岛的产量环比下降 6.17%，沙巴的产量环比增加 2. ...

巴西当地媒体9月22日援引路透社报道，巴西植物油工业协会于周一表示，巴西大豆加工商预计在 未来12个月内投资59亿雷亚尔（约合11.1亿美元），用于建设生物柴油扩产项目，以应对持续增长的生 物柴油市场需求。项目完成后，巴西大豆加工企业数量将由2024年的67家增至75家，加工厂总数将从 132家增至144家，全国大豆压榨能力预计将提升至每年8000万吨。届时，巴西生物柴油的年生产能力将 达到600万吨，较当前水平提升8%。根据美国农业部的数据，巴西是全球最大的大豆生产国和出口国， 同时也是继中国和美国之后的第三大油籽加工国。 （原标题：巴西大豆压榨产能因生物燃料需求强劲而扩大） ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to guide this pillar industry of the national economy to achieve high-quality development while maintaining reasonable growth, focusing on "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting innovation" [2][3] Industry Growth and Structure - The plan requires an average annual growth of over 5% in industry value-added from 2025 to 2026, while pursuing improvements in economic efficiency and innovation capabilities [2][3] - The plan is expected to promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and lead to healthier industry development, optimizing supply-side dynamics [3] Capacity Control and Market Dynamics - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and rational determination of new ethylene and paraxylene production scales, aiming to prevent overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol sector [3] - Future supply of refining and ethylene will be significantly limited, potentially optimizing the competitive landscape of the industry [3] Chemical Products and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights key investment directions in the chemical sector, including potassium fertilizers, pesticides, refrigerants, and fluorinated liquids, driven by improving supply-demand dynamics and resource scarcity [5][6] - The global potassium fertilizer industry is characterized by high concentration and tight supply-demand balance, with companies like "Yara International" expected to maintain high prices [6] - The pesticide sector is anticipated to see price recovery due to increased demand from South America and limited export growth from India and the U.S. [6] Emerging Trends and Policy Support - The plan supports the development of new chemical materials, such as electronic chemicals and high-performance fibers, to meet the needs of emerging industries like semiconductors and renewable energy [3] - The fertilizer industry is encouraged to strengthen raw material supply and stabilize production, ensuring a reliable supply during critical agricultural periods [4] Price Trends and Economic Indicators - The chemical product price index (CCPI) reported a decline of 8.4% from the beginning of the year, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [5] - The manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery, but demand remains weak, highlighting the need for continued monitoring of economic conditions [5]

2025/9/29 13:25 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA⻢棕9⽉前25⽇产量环⽐减4.14% PAN巴西⼤⾖播种进度已达4.16% 20250929 | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 16 | -0. 28 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 1152 | 0. 05 | | 马未林吉特(MYR/USD) | 4. 2129 | 0. 12 | | 印尼卢比(IDR/USD) | 16702 | 0. 52 | | 巴西里亚尔(BRL/USD) | 5. 3470 | 0. 57 | | 阿根廷比索(ARS/USD) | 1329.000 | -0. 60 | | 新币(SGD/USD) | 1. 2925 | 0. 45 | 02 现货行情 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 基差隔日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE棕榈油2601 | 华北 | 9340 | 90 | -10 | | | 华东 | 9200 | -40 | 0 | | | 华南 | ...

9月29日，卓越新能涨5.18%，截至发稿，报52.58元/股，成交5085.65万元，换手率0.83%，总市值63.10 亿元。 资料显示，龙岩卓越新能源股份有限公司位于福建省龙岩市新罗区铁山镇平林(福建龙州工业园东宝工 业集中区)，成立日期2001年11月1日，上市日期2019年11月21日，公司主营业务涉及利用废油脂为原 料,通过纯化、甲酯化、分馏等现代生产技术,生产生物柴油(脂肪酸甲酯)及其深加工产品。主营业务收 入构成为：生物柴油81.33%，脂肪酸混合油脂8.86%，天然脂肪醇6.27%，环保型醇酸树脂1.53%，工业 甘油1.37%，生物酯增塑剂0.32%，其他(补充)0.31%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，中信建投基金旗下1只基金重仓卓越新能。中信建投稳利A（000804）二季度持有股数3261 股，占基金净值比例为0.25%，位居第二大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约8445.99元。 中信建投稳利A（000804）成立日期2014年9月26日，最新规模5360.98万。今年以来收益13.03%，同类 排名5426/8244；近一年收益21.63%，同类排名5159/8080；成立以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need for global action in response to the challenges of green transition, highlighting the importance of international cooperation, particularly between Peru and China, to advance renewable energy initiatives [4]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Opportunities - The biodiesel industry in South America is rapidly growing, with Peru expanding its market share alongside major producers like Brazil and Argentina, positioning itself as the second-largest biodiesel center globally after Asia [4]. - Peru has established a mandatory biodiesel blending standard, increasing from B5 (95% petroleum and 5% biodiesel) to B7.5, reflecting its commitment to clean energy and emission reduction [4]. - The glycerin market presents significant growth opportunities, with Peru exporting 525,000 tons of crude glycerin and 155,000 tons of refined glycerin annually, which are widely used in various industries [5]. Group 2: Raw Material and Sustainable Practices - Peru's palm oil production is significant, with plans to expand cultivation, as the region currently utilizes less than 1% of its farmland for palm planting, indicating substantial growth potential [5]. - The goal is to achieve carbon capture of 5 to 11 million tons of CO2 by 2030 through sustainable palm oil cultivation, ensuring no soil degradation occurs [5]. Group 3: Future Cooperation and Technological Innovation - The economic cooperation between China and Peru is expected to expand into digitalization to facilitate trade, with significant potential in intellectual property and unique technologies [6]. - The emerging energy sector, particularly in oil-based chemicals, has a market size of $20 billion, which can support high-end industrial development and contribute to sustainable aviation fuel production [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on bioenergy and catalytic purification environmental materials, with a core development direction in bioenergy, primarily producing biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [1] Company Overview - The main products of the company include biodiesel and biojet fuel, with a significant emphasis on the production of high-quality hydrocarbon-based biodiesel [1] - The hydrocarbon-based biodiesel can reduce carbon dioxide net emissions by 80% compared to fossil-based diesel, highlighting its low-carbon, clean, and environmentally friendly advantages [1] Production Capacity - The company has launched a 200,000-ton SAF isomerization project through its subsidiary, Shandong Sanju, adding approximately 160,000 tons/year of biojet fuel production capacity, with a biojet fuel yield of about 80% [1] - The biojet fuel products have received airworthiness certification from the Civil Aviation Administration of China and international certifications under ISCCCORSIA and ISCC-EU for HEFA [1] Business Focus - The company does not currently engage in liquid cooling, data center, or optical module business areas [1]