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新中产的“标配”,Lululemon年内跌没1220亿
美股研究社· 2025-06-27 14:26
Core Viewpoint - Lululemon's recent financial performance indicates a slowdown in growth, with a significant drop in stock price following disappointing earnings guidance and increased inventory levels, raising concerns about the brand's high-end positioning and market strategy [3][5][8]. Financial Performance - For Q1 of fiscal year 2025, Lululemon reported revenue of $2.371 billion, a year-over-year increase of 7.32%, while net profit decreased by 2.13% to $310 million [3][5]. - The company has lowered its revenue guidance for Q2 and the full fiscal year, expecting a revenue increase of approximately 5% to 7% for the year, with total revenue projected between $11.15 billion and $11.3 billion [4][5]. - Following the earnings report, Lululemon's stock price fell by 19.8%, reaching a five-year low, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 39% and a market cap loss of over $17.1 billion [5][7]. Market Dynamics - Lululemon's inventory surged by 22.81% in Q1, contrasting with a revenue growth of only 7.32%, suggesting potential future discounting to manage excess inventory, which could harm brand perception [8][16]. - The company’s revenue breakdown shows that the Americas accounted for 57.47% of total revenue, while China contributed 17.39%, indicating a growing reliance on the Chinese market for growth [18][20]. Strategic Adjustments - Under CEO Calvin McDonald, Lululemon shifted its strategy towards a more inclusive market approach, increasing the proportion of men's products and expanding into new categories [11][12]. - The company plans to open 40 to 45 new stores in 2025, primarily in international markets, with a focus on second and third-tier cities in China [27][30]. Challenges Ahead - The brand faces a dilemma between maintaining its high-end image and expanding into lower-tier markets, which could dilute its brand equity [16][32]. - Analysts express concerns that Lululemon's growth quality is diverging from its premium positioning, likening its strategy to that of Coach rather than Hermes [35][36].