Core Viewpoint - The North China rainy season has been notably prolonged this year, lasting 55 days as of August 28, compared to the average of 30 days, influenced by various climatic factors such as sea temperature anomalies and persistent high-pressure systems [1][2][5]. Group 1: Rainy Season Characteristics - The rainy season began on July 5, 13 days earlier than the average start date of July 18, marking the earliest onset since 1961 [2][5]. - Cumulative rainfall in the monitoring area has exceeded the normal seasonal value by 131% as of August 25 [2][3]. - The rainy season has been characterized by high humidity and frequent heavy rainfall events, with 29 significant precipitation events recorded since the onset of the rainy season [3][4]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - Multiple factors contribute to the extended duration of the rainy season, including anomalies in equatorial Pacific sea temperatures, a strong and northward-shifted subtropical high-pressure system, typhoon activity, and geographical features [5][6]. - The subtropical high-pressure system has been particularly strong, reaching its northernmost position since 1961, facilitating the influx of warm, moist air from the south [6][7]. - The interaction between warm, moist air and cold air from higher latitudes has led to increased precipitation in North China [6][7]. Group 3: Climate Change Implications - The record-breaking rainy season is seen as a local manifestation of global climate system changes, with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events attributed to climate change [8]. - Experts suggest that the duration of the rainy season exhibits significant interdecadal variability, with a trend of increasing duration observed since 2011 [7][8]. - There is a call for enhanced disaster prevention and mitigation measures in response to extreme weather, emphasizing the need for societal engagement in climate adaptation strategies [8].

核心阅读 7月5日，今年华北雨季从内蒙古中部拉开大幕，截至8月28日，已持续55天，较常年雨季长度（30天） 明显偏长。这与赤道太平洋海温异常、西太平洋副热带高压持续偏强偏西偏北、台风活动及地形等因素 密切相关。 8月27日，北京、天津、河北等地又下雨了。其中，河北保定市、沧州市和秦皇岛市，北京房山区、大 兴区、门头沟区，天津宝坻区和武清区等局地出现了大暴雨。 这样的大雨，对于今年夏天的北方来说，已经比较常见，以至于不少人感觉"北方一直下雨且潮湿，像 江南一样"。 记者从国家气候中心获悉：从7月5日开始的华北雨季仍未结束，开始早、时间长、雨量大，是今年华北 雨季的显著特点。 华北雨季也被称为"七下八上"防汛关键期。这是因为华北雨季往往在每年7月下半月至8月上半月，如 今，时间已来到8月末，华北雨季仍未结束。 今年华北雨季为何偏长？ 今年华北雨季为何时间长、湿度大？ 今年华北雨季降雨次数多、降雨量大、空气湿度大 今年7月5日，华北雨季从内蒙古中部拉开大幕，较往年华北雨季平均开始时间——7月18日，偏早13 天，为1961年以来历史最早年份。 国家气候中心统计数据显示，截至8月28日，华北雨季已持续55天，较常年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The North China rainy season has been notably prolonged this year, lasting 55 days as of August 28, which is significantly longer than the average duration of 30 days, influenced by various climatic factors [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Rainy Season Characteristics - The rainy season in North China began on July 5, 13 days earlier than the average start date of July 18, marking the earliest onset since 1961 [2][5]. - As of August 25, the cumulative rainfall in the monitoring area was 131% above the normal seasonal value [2]. Rainfall Events - There have been 29 significant rainfall events since the onset of the rainy season, with 10 classified as strong and 2 as exceptionally strong [3]. - Notable rainfall amounts include over 250 mm in certain areas, with specific locations like Beijing's Miyun District recording 573.5 mm and Baoding in Hebei reaching 605.8 mm [3]. Influencing Factors - The prolonged rainy season is attributed to several factors, including abnormal sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, a strong and shifted subtropical high-pressure system, typhoon activity, and geographical features [5][6]. - The subtropical high-pressure system has been particularly strong and has shifted northward, facilitating the influx of warm, moist air from the south [6]. Climate Change Context - The record-breaking rainy season is seen as a local manifestation of global climate change, with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events [7][8]. - Experts suggest that while the rainy season's duration has shown an increasing trend since 2011, it is too early to definitively conclude that this "warming and wetting" trend will continue [7][8].

"破纪录"并非偶然 "今夏华北地区雨季降水呈现明显偏多态势，与赤道太平洋海温异常、西太平洋副热带高压（以下简 称'副高'）持续偏强偏西偏北、台风活动及地形因素等多种因素密切相关。"支蓉说。 支蓉表示，在全球变暖影响下，副高北界向高纬度拓展，为副高北抬提供了大尺度环流背景。2025年春 季以来，赤道太平洋持续呈现"西暖东冷"的海温异常分布，此类海温配置有利于东亚夏季风偏强，并推 动副高位置异常偏北。 今年7月以来，副高整体较常年同期明显偏强偏西偏北。尤其是7月，副高脊线位置达到1961年以来历史 同期最北水平。在这样的异常环流影响下，低纬暖湿气流沿副高外围源源不断向北输送至我国北方地 区，与高纬地区南下的冷空气相结合，导致华北等地降水异常偏多。 据中央气象台预报，8月27日8时至28日8时，京津冀地区仍有明显降雨。国家气候中心数据显示，今年 我国汛期雨季进程总体偏早。华北雨季于7月5日开始，较常年偏早13天，为1961年以来最早。截至8月 25日，华北雨季已持续52天，较常年雨季长度（30天）明显偏长，且还未结束。今年华北雨季超长"待 机"的原因是什么，这种破纪录事件正常吗？针对以上问题，科技日报记者采访了国家 ...

今年第11号台风"杨柳"将于8月13日中午前后在台湾东南部沿海登陆，穿过台湾岛后再次入海，并将于13日夜间至 14日凌晨在福建厦门到广东汕头一带沿海再次登陆。明后两天，台风"杨柳"还将继续深入影响广东、广西、江西 南部等地，带来暴雨或大暴雨、局地特大暴雨。 截至目前，今年登陆我国的台风共有4个。值得注意的是，今年的台风有"深入"北方、带来明显降雨的表现。例如 今年第8号台风"竹节草"远距离向北京输送水汽，辅助制造了一场极端强降雨。 第11号台风"杨柳"已发展为强台风级，登陆后是否会"北上"？台风"杨柳"和台风"竹节草"有什么不同？8月13日， 中央气象台举办媒体通气会，中央气象台首席预报员吕心艳就上述问题进行解答。 台风"杨柳"未来48小时路径概率预报图。中央气象台供图 明后两天，台风"杨柳"将继续深入影响广东、广西、江西南部、湖南中南部、贵州、重庆南部等地，上述地区有 暴雨或大暴雨，局地特大暴雨。 全国降水量预报图。中央气象台供图 追问1 台风"杨柳"是否会对北方天气产生影响？ "杨柳"将登陆两次，随后深入影响广东、广西等地 13日11时，台风"杨柳"在距离台湾台东市东南方向约65公里的海面上，强度为强台风 ...

随着第七号台风"范斯高"今天生成，截至目前，今年已有7个台风生成，预计，7月底8月初，仍是台风 活跃期。根据气象部门最新预计，7月下旬，西北太平洋热带系统仍较活跃，还将有1到2个台风生成。8 月份，台风影响区域主要集中在华东、华南，其中有1个台风影响北方地区。 ...