Group 1 - The central bank has increased liquidity withdrawal after the quarter-end, but the central tendency of funding rates continues to decline, with the one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit (CD) yield dropping below 1.6% [1][2] - Market optimism regarding future funding conditions is rising, supported by accelerated fiscal spending and increased demand for CDs from wealth management and money market funds [1][3] - Concerns about banks' liability pressure and the potential for increasing CD issuance limits have emerged as the interbank CD registration quota usage accelerates [1][7] Group 2 - The central bank's recent operations included a net withdrawal of over 10 billion yuan, while the funding rates continued to decline, with DR001 and DR007 falling to 1.31% and 1.42% respectively [2][3] - Analysts expect the one-year AAA CD yield to have further downward potential, with a lower limit around 1.50%, influenced by fiscal spending and weak credit [3][4] - The current valuation of one-year CDs is slightly high, with the central bank considering the impact of CD rates on banks' net interest margins and loan issuance [5][6] Group 3 - As of the end of May, the disclosed CD issuance plans from banks reached a cumulative total of 33 trillion yuan, with a significant increase compared to previous years [6][7] - The issuance pace of CDs varies among different types of banks, with state-owned banks showing a higher usage ratio compared to joint-stock banks [6][7] - The upcoming months will see a substantial amount of CDs maturing, with approximately 14.75 trillion yuan due from July to December, raising concerns about banks' liability management [7][8]

市场供需结构也发生显著变化。上海金融与法律研究院研究员杨海平对《证券日报》记者表示，从需求 端看，自5月份起商业银行资金需求扩张放缓，对同业存单的发行诉求减弱；从政策端看，降准降息等 货币政策落地，市场流动性充裕，机构对同业存单的配置意愿增强，供需两端共同推动利率下行。 杨海平进一步表示，同业存单利率下行对市场产生三重影响：在成本优化层面，商业银行降低负债成 本，为优化负债结构、提升资金效率创造空间；在流动性管理层面，低位利率缓解6月份到期兑付高峰 压力，降低银行流动性风险；在资产配置层面，负债端成本下移促使银行加速布局长久期资产，通过期 限错配锁定收益，进而重塑金融市场资金流向。 华西证券（002926）研报显示，本月中下旬，同业存单到期压力大幅提升。本周(6月9日—6月13日)同 业存单到期12125亿元，为历史单周到期量最大规模，后续两周，同业存单到期规模将维持1万亿元以 上。整体来看，6月份同业存单到期压力较大，为4.2万亿元。与此同时，季末银行信贷冲量需求与政府 债券密集发行，将进一步考验市场资金面。 不过，多数机构认为季末流动性大幅波动风险可控，资金面有望维持平稳。光大证券金融业首席分析师 王一峰 ...