中国人民银行1月8日发布公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了99亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利 率为1.4%。因当日无7天期逆回购到期、有11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，叠加当日等量续做的 买断式逆回购，最终实现净投放99亿元。专家认为，财政存款、信贷投放等多种因素叠加共振将影响1 月流动性，央行或将继续通过国债买卖、中期借贷便利（MLF）等多种政策工具保持流动性充裕，预 计资金面将延续宽松态势。（中证报） ...

华福证券 2026 年 01 月 04 日 固 定 收 益 跨年资金维持宽松 年后中枢或难显著提升 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 260104 投资要点： 固 货币市场：本周 7DOMO 净投放 11710 亿。跨年因素扰动下，周初资 金价格分化，隔夜利率维持低位，周二 DR001 再创 2023 年 8 月以来的新 低，但跨年资金价格有所提升。随着央行持续大额净投放，年末财政或集 中支出，跨年当日资金整体维持宽松。 定 收 益 定 期 报 告 本周质押式回购成交量持续回落，日均成交量环比下降 2.44 万亿至 6.04 万亿；质押式回购整体规模同样持续回落，周三降至 12 万亿下方。本 周大行净融出持续大幅回落；上半周股份行净融出持续上升、城商行维持 震荡，二者均在跨年当日大幅下降；银行刚性净融出持续走低，周三降至 4.5 万亿附近。非银刚性融出持续上升超 7000 亿，尤其是其他产品与理财 大幅提升；非银刚性融入规模震荡回落，但整体降幅不大，其中基金、券 商融入降幅较大。资金缺口指数周一下行后有所回升，季调后指数周三升 至-6360，高于上周的-8857，但仍处于历年跨年的最低水平。本周银行间 市场和交 ...

成文日期：20251226 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:国债期货 研究分析师：武吟秋（期货从业资格号：F03087154；投资咨询从业证书号: Z00018989) 品期货号报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 当日（20251226），期货品种十年国债（T2603）合约早盘低 开，开盘价格 108.200元，开盘后出现震荡走势，日内最低价 108.195 元，日 K 线收阳线，持仓量 253517 手，成交量 67379 手。 1.2 品种价格 国债期货 12 个合约, 二年国债（TS2603）合约, 二年国债 (TS2606) 合约, 二年国债（TS2609）合约，价格呈现近低远高 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 来源：国金期货行情软件 的市场格局、五年国债（TF2603）合约，五年国债（TF2606） 图表 2：国债期货行情表 说明: 数据来源：中国金融期货交易所 | 合约代码 | 今开盘 | 雷宫队 | 磨喉や | 成交星 | 成交金额 | 持仓星 | 持仓变化 | 今收窄 | 今結 ...

| | | 中德国债收益率曲线(到期)% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 12月19日 | 12月26日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.19 | 1. 1057 | -8. 43 | | 0.08 | 1. 2437 | 1. 1901 | -5. 36 | | 0. 17 | 1.3336 | 1.248 | -8.56 | | 0. 25 | 1.35 | 1. 3053 | -4. 47 | | 0.5 | 1.35 | 1. 3185 | -3.15 | | 0. 75 | 1.3519 | 1.2872 | -6. 47 | | 1 | 1.3547 | 1.2872 | -6. 75 | | 2 | 1. 3752 | 1. 3378 | -3.74 | | 3 | 1.3941 | 1. 3627 | -3.14 | | 5 | 1.6021 | 1.5948 | -0. 73 | | 7 | 1.7258 | 1. 7033 | -2. 25 | | 10 | 1.8308 | 1.8376 | 0.68 | | I E | 2. 114 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is showing signs of upward momentum, with the total A-share index rising by 0.60% and trading volume increasing by 467 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is attempting to establish new narratives, which historically accompany successful breakthroughs of previous highs at year-end [1][2] - The report suggests that the index is approaching previous highs, with the total A-share index breaking through 6400 points, nearing the highs of October and November [2] Group 2 - The report identifies strong performance in specific sectors, particularly defense, military, and communication industries, which have successfully broken through previous high points, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these sectors [2] - The commercial aerospace sector has led the market with a cumulative increase of 31.12% since November 24, and its trading volume has reached a historical high of 6.05% of total A-share trading volume [3] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with short-term bonds showing a downward trend while long-term bonds are under pressure due to rising yields influenced by equity market movements [4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the commodity market has shifted from a broad rally to a more differentiated performance, with precious metals experiencing a decline while industrial metals remain resilient [6] - The report emphasizes that the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short-term volatility may arise due to profit-taking after significant price increases [7] - The report discusses the dynamics in the polysilicon industry, where price increases are being driven by supply-side adjustments, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]

近期资金利率快速下行，隔夜利率下探至1.27%。2年期活跃券250017收益率今日继续下行至1.3650%的新低，显示当前资金面持续宽松。长端利率方面， 受到交易盘影响，下行趋势出现反复，10年利率小幅回升至1.8450%。资金利率维持低位反映央行对债市的态度偏呵护，叠加10年利率现处于1.85%的央 行合意区间上沿，后市债市温和修复的方向保持不变。 来源：Wind 从近日发布的经济数据来看，目前国内总需求尚待修复，通胀回升的基础仍不稳固，对债市形成边际利好。期限利差的扩大不利于货币政策传导，在流动 性维持宽松的环境下，短端利率下行有望传导至长端。考虑次年财政端压力或相对可控，在宽货币工具仍待落地的环境下，长远来看长债仍具配置价值。 建议关注十年国债ETF（511260），考虑短期利率超调后的配置机会。 风险提示： 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场 基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分 ...

Report Summary Core View - There are both positive and negative factors in the bond market. Positive factors include a loose capital market despite the contraction of the manufacturing PMI, and rumors of "dual cuts" in the political situation boosting sentiment, leading to a decline in yields and an overall rise in futures. Negative factors are that the central bank's bond - buying scale is lower than expected, causing yields to rise and futures to fall, as well as banks selling bonds to realize profits and bond funds facing redemption pressure, resulting in consecutive increases in yields and falling futures. The trading advice is to pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying intensity and short - term liquidity and keep positions flexible [2] Specific Data and Indicators Yield and Interest Rate - Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are presented, along with data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day terms and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [3] Term Spread - Data on treasury bond term spreads (7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y) from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are provided [4][5] Futures Position and Trading Volume - Data on the positions and trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from different time periods are shown [7][8] Basis and Spread - Data on the basis of the current - quarter contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented, as well as the inter - period spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures. Additionally, data on cross - variety spreads (TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL) are provided [9][10][14][16][18][19][20]

对于DR001低位运行，天风证券固定收益首席分析师谭逸鸣认为原因有三： 对于DR001为何在近日跌破年内低点，多位分析师认为，这主要是资金供需两端共同作用的结果。 □置换债发行节奏前置、年末财政支出提速，对12月流动性形成补充 □央行投放力度与节奏匹配机构需求，稳定了资金面预期 □历史经验显示，12月资金利率波动多集中在跨年阶段，其余时点往往围绕中枢窄幅运行 ◎记者 张欣然 进入12月，银行间资金利率在低位区间继续回落。上周，具有市场风向标意义的DR001阶段性跌破 1.3%，收于1.27%的年内新低，打破了今年以来隔夜利率"低位低波但不破下限"的运行状态。 随着12月税期临近，市场对资金面是否转紧的关注明显升温。不过，从央行操作节奏及机构判断来看， 在中长期流动性提前投放、财政支出形成补充以及机构资金需求偏弱等因素支撑下，税期扰动预计难以 改变年末资金面整体平稳充裕的格局。 隔夜利率低位运行 进入12月，银行间资金利率延续平稳偏松态势。业内人士认为，财政支出投放提速、央行年末流动性呵 护以及机构资金需求阶段性偏弱等因素叠加，是推动短端利率回落的主要原因，整体流动性仍处于偏松 区间。 从走势看，隔夜资金利率呈 ...

国债衍生品周报 2025/12/12 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 . 国债期货持仓 source： wind 手 2年期国债期货 5年期国债期货 10年期国债期货 30年期国债期货 15/12 17/12 19/12 21/12 23/12 50000 100000 150000 200000 国债期货成交 source： wind 手 2年期国债期货 5年期国债期货 10年期国债期货 30年期国债期货 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 2年期国债期货当季合约基差 source： wind 元 2年期国债期货基差:当季 02/29 04/30 06/30 08/31 10/31 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3924 points, up 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.6% [1] - The total market turnover was approximately 2.05 trillion, showing an increase compared to the previous period [1] Key Focus Areas - The market's rise was primarily driven by gains in non-bank financials and technology stocks, supported by insurance funds adjusting risk factors to release more investable capital [2] - The Politburo meeting emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, indicating a favorable policy environment [2] - Despite the A-share market's increase, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.2%, suggesting weak foreign capital inflow and limited signs of savings migration [2] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index filled the gap from November 21 and closed slightly above the 20-day moving average, indicating that the technical rebound target has been achieved [2] - Future movements may require consolidation rather than a sustained upward trend, with attention on the potential for a "hawkish rate cut" from the Federal Reserve [2] External Market Conditions - Overnight, U.S. stock markets saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.45% and the Nasdaq down 0.14% [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.16%, indicating a shift in bond market sentiment [3] - The A50 index and Hang Seng futures showed minor declines, reflecting a stable external environment [3] Investment Strategy - The strategy leans towards a rotational approach, focusing on sectors such as industrial machinery, satellite internet, and semiconductor equipment materials, which are seen as key areas for investment [3] - Continuous monitoring of external policy changes, including potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, is essential for guiding investment decisions [3]