时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 8 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：上涨 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均大幅上涨，涨幅超过 2%。沪深京三市全天成交额 25788 亿元，较上日放 量 872 亿元。股市成交金额连续多个交易日大于 2 万亿元，说明 ...

1. 公开市场操作 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 随着 央行 公开市场的连续资金注入，银行间市场资金面呈现常态宽松。存款类机构隔夜和七天回购加权利率均回落，均下行 5 个 bp 左右， D R001 目前 在 1.41% 附近， D R007 在 1.46% 附近。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价也集中在 1.4% 附近，供给数百亿。 Wind 数据显示， 8 月 25 日 -29 日当周央行公开市场将有 20770 亿元逆回购到期，还将有 3000 亿元 MLF 到期、 5000 亿元 6 个月期买断式逆回购到 期、 4000 亿元 3 个月期买断式逆回购到期。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.31% 。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.67% 附近，较上日基本持平。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA ...

资金面均衡偏松，资金利率延续回落，DR001在1.41%附近，DR007在1.47%附近。 投资的目的是赚钱，市场每天都有无数的赚钱机会，我们只赚属于能力范围内的钱，什么钱都想赚，代表你还没有建立起自己的投资体系，还不知道自己 的能力边界在哪里。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250822— "英伟达不过如此，纳斯达克也就那样"（-股市站上3800点-国债一级发行结果偏弱+MLF净投放3000亿+资金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展3612亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2380亿元逆回购到期，净投放1232亿元。此外，央行公告：将于2025年8月25日以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.08.22) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化品 | 成交当占 | | | (%) | (bp) | ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 周三早盘 A 股震荡回落，午后人工智能板块带动反弹，无视隔夜美股及亚太 股指下跌，股指期货大涨呈逼空态势，与碳酸锂跌停形成反差。资金面宽松 是主因：央行宽松政策下，资金为求回报流入股期市场；居民财富管理意识 提升、房地产吸引力下降，部分资金转向金融领域，充实股市资金池。市场普 遍看涨形成正向反馈—投资者买入推升价格，价格上涨又吸引更多资金入场， 放大涨幅，这种情绪与信心转变成为股指期货 IM、IC 逼空行情的重要心理基 础。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低做多 国债 保持观望 研究咨询部 2025-08-21 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司期货交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 ◆ 核心观点： 以前期高点作为参考，如果后续收益率调整高度不能突破前高（以 30 年国债 活跃券 2500002 前高 2.06%为例），那么权益市场的强势表现对债市冲击最 猛烈的时刻很可能已经过去；同时债市还迎来了税期过后资金面重回宽松以 及基金赎回压力经历前期释放而有所缓解的边际利好 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘继续低开高走，盘中摸到4.4星。 到收盘涨幅回落，还在4.5星。 大中小盘股都上涨，中小盘股上涨略多。 成长风格领涨，创业板等指数上涨较多。 价值风格相对低迷，红利、自由现金流等指数微跌。 A股有风格轮动的特征，遇到成长风格强势的时候，价值风格就低迷一些。 港股相对低迷，略微下跌。港股科技股微涨。 从去年9月以来，港股出现了三波上涨，春节后比A股多上涨了一轮，多涨了百分之十几。 港股也率先走出4星，达到3.9星上下。 A股最近补涨，涨幅比港股还高一些。 不过最近随着股票市场持续上涨，纯债市场比较低迷。 今天长期纯债基金下跌较多。 30年期国债指数基金，下跌超1%，这对债基来说是很大的波动了。 当前长期纯债基金还没跌到低估。人民币10年期国债收益率在1.77%上下。 一般到2-3%之间，长期纯债算回到正常水平。 不过这对我们投资也有好处，这样到牛市后期，还有低估品种可以买。 1. 有朋友问，最近市场这轮上涨的原因和哪些方面有关呢？ 一方面是去年A股港股的估值非常低，最低一度达到5.9星，比全球市场股票平均估值低50%。 即便最近上涨后，A股的估值还比全球平均估值低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has a low "profit - making effect", leading to the continuous withdrawal of trading funds. Despite marginal positive factors, the bond market continued to decline last week. The current situation is similar to the reversal in the bond market in the fourth quarter of last year [4][7]. - It is difficult to expect the bond market to rise again due to the end of the stock market rally. The triggers for the bond market to rise again are that loose liquidity becomes the dominant factor and the coupon value meets investors' psychological expectations [10]. - Although trading enthusiasm is cooling, the bond market still has two supporting factors: continued loose liquidity and rigid allocation demand. The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year is not pessimistic, and short - term trading enthusiasm is hard to recover immediately [4][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: The "Reverse Mirror" of the Bond Market in Q4 2024 - The bond market adjustment last week was mainly due to the low "profit - making effect", causing trading funds to withdraw. The current situation is similar to the change in the bond market sentiment in Q4 last year. The reversal last year was due to the central bank's actions and the economic "small spring". Currently, the bond market is also facing the consensus of low profit - making effect [4][7]. - It is difficult for the bond market to rise again because of the end of the stock market rally. The bond market's rise depends on loose liquidity and the coupon value reaching investors' expectations. The former requires central bank signals, and the latter needs sufficient withdrawal of trading funds and investors' confidence in limited bond market adjustment [10]. - There are two supporting factors for the bond market: continued loose liquidity and rigid allocation demand. The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year is not pessimistic, but short - term trading is difficult, and medium - and short - term credit products still have allocation value [4][11][12]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: Increasing Supply of Local Government Bonds 2.1 Domestic August LPR to be Announced - This week, China will announce the August LPR, the US will announce the July new - home starts, and the eurozone will announce the August consumer confidence index and PMI. The Fed Chairman will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday [14]. 2.2 This Week's Increase in Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance - This week, it is expected to issue 931.2 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds, a relatively high level compared to previous years. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue about 402 billion yuan, local government bonds 369.2 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds about 160 billion yuan [16]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Improved Risk Appetite Puts Pressure on the Bond Market 3.1 Continued Net Withdrawal in Reverse Repurchase Operations - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operations continued to have a net withdrawal. The reverse repurchase scale reached 711.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. Tax - period funds saw a low - level increase in interest rates, with the repurchase volume rising and then falling, and the overnight and 7 - day DR and R rates changing compared to the previous week [22][23]. - The issuance of certificates of deposit remained at a relatively high level, with a net financing of - 131.1 billion yuan. The issuance by different types of banks and the proportion of different maturities changed, and the certificate of deposit rates mostly increased [28][29]. 3.2 Improved Market Risk Appetite - Last week, the resurgence of anti - involution policies led to a rapid rise in commodity prices and a stronger equity market, improving market risk appetite and putting pressure on the bond market. Despite poor financial and economic data, the positive impact was limited, and the redemption pressure on bond funds increased the bond market adjustment. On August 15, the yields of various - maturity treasury bonds mostly increased, with the 10 - year China Development Bank bond rising the most [38]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most开工率 Declined - On the production side, most开工率 declined, such as blast furnace and semi - steel tire开工率, while the asphalt开工率 increased. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early August narrowed [47]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales diverged. The year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area remained negative. The export indices SCFI and CCFI decreased [47]. - On the price side, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices declined, coal prices were divided, and in the middle - stream, building material prices mostly decreased. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory rose rapidly. Vegetable prices increased, while fruit and pork prices decreased [48].

Report Summary Core Views - Last week, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias, and the yield curve steepened and shifted downward. Despite the rise in the stock market and commodity prices and better-than-expected July trade data suppressing market sentiment, the bond market was supported by loose liquidity and the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements. The long - term yields declined overall, with the short - term yields falling more than the long - term ones [2]. - This week, the bond market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The better - than - expected July trade data shows export resilience, but low PPI and CPI data reflect insufficient aggregate demand. The upcoming July financial data is likely to show that the credit volume will not exceed expectations and the structure may be poor. The central bank still has a strong willingness to maintain liquidity, so the short - term liquidity is expected to remain loose. However, the "anti - involution" policy has improved market expectations and relieved some downward pressure on PPI. The recent good performance of the stock and commodity markets may continue to boost market risk appetite, attracting some funds out of the bond market and suppressing the bond market. Overall, the bond market is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the 10 - year Treasury yield expected to range between 1.65% - 1.75% [2]. Market Review Last Week Secondary Market - The bond market was strongly oscillating last week, and long - term bond yields continued to decline. The 10 - year Treasury futures' main contract rose 0.18% in the whole week. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.68bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 2.28bp, with the term spread widening [3]. - On August 4, affected by the new VAT policy, the bond market continued to decline in the morning but was pressured and weakened in the afternoon due to the rebound of the stock and commodity markets. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 0.24bp [3]. - On August 5, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.22bp [3]. - On August 6, affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and rumors of large banks buying 7 - 8Y old bonds, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.62bp [3]. - On August 7, the better - than - expected July trade data and the rising stock market pressured the bond market, but the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements in the afternoon released a positive signal, and the bond market recovered. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.05bp [3]. - On August 8, the stock market continued to rise, but the bond market oscillated with a positive bias supported by loose liquidity. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell slightly by 0.03bp [3]. Primary Market - Last week, 62 interest - rate bonds were issued, 30 less than the previous week. The issuance volume was 808.5 billion yuan, an increase of 136.1 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing was 595.9 billion yuan, an increase of 42.6 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased, while those of local government bonds decreased [11]. Important Events Last Week - July's foreign trade data exceeded expectations. In July 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points higher than in June. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, 3.0 percentage points higher than in June. The increase in exports was mainly due to the low base in the same period last year and the "rush - to - export" and "re - export" effects caused by the changing US tariff policy. The increase in imports was due to the rebound of international commodity prices and the demand for imports in the export process [14]. - July's CPI and PPI continued to operate at a low level. In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly affected by the high base of vegetable and pork prices in the same period last year. PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with a 0.2 - percentage - point decline month - on - month, mainly due to the uncertainty in international trade, the decline in prices of some major export industrial products, and the impact of the real - estate market and electricity prices. However, the "anti - involution" policy improved the prices of domestic - dominated industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, and lithium - battery, alleviating the decline of PPI [14][15]. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed trends. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants and the daily average molten - iron output decreased. The semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week [16]. - On the demand side, the BDI index rebounded slightly, while the CCFI continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [16]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated and decreased slightly, while most commodity prices rose. Rebar and copper prices increased, and crude - oil prices declined [16]. Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [27]. - The half - year national - share direct - discount rate decreased, and the volume of pledged repurchase transactions continued to increase. The R007 and DR007 both increased slightly, and the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward. The inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased slightly [28][29][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be oscillatory with a downward bias. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the feedback of risk preference on off - season macro data and new developments in Sino - US trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The weekly performance of Treasury bond futures contracts showed a slight recovery, and the curve flattened on a weekly basis. The market presented a differentiated feature where the short - end maintained resilience and the long - end's volatility converged. The short - end was supported by loose liquidity and demand for tax - exempt bonds, while the long - end was affected by policy expectations and data games. Attention should be paid to the pricing of newly issued Treasury bonds and the impact of the new VAT policy on the long - end curve [3][5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content summary is provided in the report. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 0.35%, foreign capital decreased by 0.16%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 0.08%. In terms of weekly changes, private funds decreased by 9.44%, foreign capital increased by 2.19%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.75% [11].

Group 1 - The investment rating of the bond industry is not mentioned in the report Group 2 - The core view of the report is that there are both positive and negative factors in the bond market. The positive factors are the continuous loosening of the capital market and the increasing expectation of the overseas Fed's interest rate cut. The negative factors are the rising inflation expectation and the phased recovery of capital interest rates. The market is cautious about the VAT benefits and regards them as short - term factors and should not be overly optimistic [3] Group 3 Market Factors - Positive factors include the continuous loosening of the capital market, rising treasury bond futures prices, falling yields, and increasing overseas Fed's interest rate cut expectation, which support the domestic bond market and boost the overall atmosphere [3] - Negative factors include the rising inflation expectation caused by policy - stimulated commodity price increases and the phased recovery of capital interest rates combined with high - level wealth management leverage, leading to partial profit - taking behavior [3] Transaction Advice - The market is cautious about the VAT benefits and considers them as short - term factors, not suitable for excessive optimism [3] Data Presentation - The report presents the data of treasury bond yields, capital interest rates, treasury bond term spreads, treasury bond futures positions, trading volumes, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads, covering 2 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds [4][5][8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].