Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 356.4 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 27, with a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 300 billion yuan maturing [1]. Group 2: Liquidity Conditions - The central bank has shifted to net injection in the open market, ensuring ample liquidity in the interbank market, with overnight repo rates slightly declining to around 1.31% [3]. - The overnight pricing in the anonymous click (X-repo) system is at 1.28%, with supply close to 200 billion yuan [3]. - Non-bank institutions are borrowing overnight funds using credit bonds as collateral, with rates dropping below 1.4% [3]. - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.01% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is at 1.65%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [6]. Group 4: Government Bonds and Futures - The main contracts for government bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year contract down 0.01%, the 10-year down 0.06%, and the 5-year down 0.01%, while the 2-year contract saw a slight increase of 0.01% [11]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - In October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 5.5% year-on-year, while the total profit for January to October reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the allocation of 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan in special bonds for "hard investment" projects in the previous and current years, respectively [12]. - The NDRC is actively promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include more sectors and asset types [13]. Group 6: Global Macro Developments - The Japanese government plans to issue more bonds to fund an economic stimulus package, with an additional budget of approximately 18.3 trillion yen (about 117 billion USD) funded by issuing 11.7 trillion yen in bonds [15]. - The Bank of Korea maintained its key interest rate at 2.5%, aligning with market expectations, and revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0% from 0.9% [15]. Group 7: Bond Market Events - Vanke bonds experienced significant declines, with "21 Vanke 02" dropping over 57% and other bonds falling by more than 40% [17]. - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank plans to hold a meeting on December 10 to discuss the extension of "22 Vanke MTN004" [17]. - Tianfeng Securities intends to issue up to 9.6 billion USD in offshore bonds to ensure the normal repayment of existing debts [17]. Group 8: Non-Standard Asset Risks - Recent disclosures indicate multiple non-standard asset defaults related to trust plans, highlighting ongoing risks in the market [18].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 市场对明年一致预期或将提前反应 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 关注永续品种定价偏离带来的机会：信用 | 2025-11-24 | | --- | --- | | 债市场周观察 | | | 景 气 分 化 但 估 值 趋 同 ， 产 业 债 如 何 挖 | 2025-11-24 | | 掘？：产业债投资策略 | | | 指数接近前高， ...

1. 公开市场操作 央行 公告称， 11 月 26 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2133 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 2133 亿元，中标量 2133 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 3105 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净回笼 972 亿元。 2. 资金面 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 央行在公开市场连续净回笼，但银行间市场资金面依旧宽松，存款类机构隔夜回购利率小降并徘徊于 1.31% 附近；匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报 价最低探至 1.28% ，供给近 2000 亿。非银机构以信用债为抵押融入隔夜资金，报价在 1.4% 附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.96% 。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.64% 附近，较上日大致持平。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA） ...

转自：新华财经 货币市场利率（11月26日） 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中心 新华财经北京11月26日电（刘润榕）人民银行26日开展2133亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有3105亿元7天期逆回购到 期，公开市场实现净回笼972亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）延续窄幅震荡。具体来看，隔夜Shibor与前日持平，报1.3160%；7天Shibor上涨2.00BP，报1.4530%；14天Shibor下跌 3.30BP，报1.5070%。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（11月26日） 银行间质押式回购市场方面，隔夜资金价格仍在1.3%关口徘徊。具体看，DR001、R001加权平均利率分别下行0.2BP、上行0.2BP，报1.3187%、 1.3894%，成交额分别减少1481亿元、2421亿元；DR007、R007加权平均利率分别上行2.9BP、6.1BP，报1.4703%、1.5566%，成交额分别增加684亿元、 4326亿元；DR014、R014加权平均利率分别上行1.3BP、0.3BP，报1.5428%、1.5448%，成交额分别减少55亿元、1337亿元。 一级存单 ...

1. 公开市场操作 央行 公告称， 11 月 25 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3021 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 3021 亿元，中标量 3021 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 4075 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净回笼 1054 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 中国银行间市场周二资金面平稳向宽，主要期限回购利率低位徘徊，存款类机构隔夜回购利率微降并停留于 1.32% 附近。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上， 隔夜报价亦仍在 1.3% ，供给规模接近两千亿元人民币；非银机构质押信用债融入隔夜资金，报价降至 1.4% 附近。交易员指出，资金很松，市场真不缺 钱，资金面整体平稳偏宽态势不改；考虑到本周适逢月末时点，仍需关注央行后续投放力度及资金变化情况。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.93% 。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月25日电（刘润榕）人民银行25日开展3021亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，与前次持平；鉴于当日有9000亿元1年期中期借贷便 利（MLF）和4075亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净回笼10054亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）延续窄幅震荡。具体来看，隔夜Shibor与前日持平，报1.3160%；7天Shibor下跌1.40BP，报1.4330%；14天Shibor下跌 0.20BP，报1.5400%。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（11月25日） 银行间质押式回购市场方面，短期资金价格整体小幅回落，R007成交额占比高位徘徊。具体看，DR001、R001加权平均利率分别下行0.1BP、0.5BP，报 1.318%、1.3843%，成交额分别减少1529亿元、409亿元；DR007、R007加权平均利率分别下行1.6BP、3.3P，报1.4541%、1.5238%，成交额分别增加347 亿元、122亿元；DR014、R014加权平均利率分别下行1.1BP、1.2BP，报1.5317%、1.533%，成交额分别减少66亿元、64亿元。 货币市场利率（11月 ...

证券研究报告 【平安固收】2025年11月托管月报： 年末债市需求仍有支撑 平安证券研究所固定收益团队 2025年11月25日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 分析师：刘璐 S1060519060001 （证券投资咨询） 邮箱：liulu979@pingan.com.cn 分析师：郑子辰 S1060521090001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱： ZHENGZICHEN160@pingan.com.cn 核心摘要 10月托管规模同比持平于上月，券种上同业存单正贡献、利率债负贡献。2025年10月，债券托管余额同比增速为 14.0%，较9月下降0.1个百分点。当月新增托管规模为1.5万亿元，和去年同期新增规模基本持平。券种上，10月同业 存单是同比多增的主要贡献，银行10月可能在宽松的流动性环境下加大了同业存单的供给，以提前应对年末和明年开 门红的信贷需求。10月利率债（国债+地方债+政金债）明显少增，主要由于今年政府债供给前置。此外，信用债在企 业资产负债表修复、信用债收益率回落、科创债新政提振的背景下也实现了明显的同比多增。 分机构：配置型机构配债力量退坡，非法人产品明显增配。10月分机构来看，同比多增的主要是非法人产 ...

固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 透视券商自营债市策略 ——走在债市曲线之前系列报告（八） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 券商自营债券持仓规模持续增长，但市场占比略有下降，配置结构从以信用债为主转向利率债 与信用债并重，反映出对资本利得的博弈需求增强。其交易行为高频灵活且内部分化显著，久 期呈上升趋势以提升收益。通过胜率模型分析，券商在 10 年期国债上展现出较强的持仓成本 控制能力但止盈表现较弱，在二永债止盈与持仓成本胜率均更优。债券借贷业务是券商重要的 策略工具，参与动机多元，涵盖融资、做空、套息及结算应急等多重维度，以实现杠杆、方向 和套利收益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 报告要点 [Table_Title 透视券商自营债市策略 2] ——走在 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 24, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 338.7 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 283 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 55.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market in China showed a relaxed funding environment, with overnight repurchase rates slightly decreasing to around 1.32% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous X-repo system remained around 1.3%, with a supply scale of about 100 billion yuan [3] - Non-bank institutions were borrowing overnight funds against pledged credit bonds at rates between 1.47% and 1.48% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.91% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit from major banks was around 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Major Interest Rate Bond Yields - The yields for various government bonds were reported, with the 1-year government bond yield at 1.4025%, and the 10-year bond yield at 1.6900% [9] Group 5: Recent MLF Operations - The central bank plans to conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for November, as 900 billion yuan of MLF is set to mature [13] - The total medium-term liquidity released through MLF and reverse repos in November is 600 billion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level for four consecutive months [13] Group 6: Bond Market Developments - The central bank successfully issued 45 billion yuan in central bank bills in Hong Kong on November 24, with a 3-month issuance of 30 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.60% [13] - The issuance of local government bonds in Inner Mongolia is scheduled for December 1, amounting to 10.4 billion yuan [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View - In October, broad funds significantly increased their holdings of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs). The total bond custody scale increased by 1.31 trillion yuan month-on-month to 176.8 trillion yuan, with NCD custody scale up 7214 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly driven by broad funds. [2][10][77] - There is uncertainty about the Fed's rate cut in December. The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, higher than market expectations. The 9 - month non - farm data may be more accurate, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. As of November 23 noon Beijing time, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 71%. [2][23][77] - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, with bond yields likely to decline in a volatile manner. The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65% this year. [4][78] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - In October, the total bond custody scale increased by 1.31 trillion yuan month - on - month to 176.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from Shanghai Clearing House. NCDs were the main driver of the increase, with broad funds as the major buyers. [10] - On November 21, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China announced that savings bonds (electronic) will be included in the scope of personal pension products starting from June 2026. [23] 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of November 16, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume decreased by 5.4% year - on - year. As of November 21, the 7 - day national movie box office revenue increased by 74.8% year - on - year. As of November 7, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 34.6% year - on - year. [25][30] 2.2 Transportation - Affected by Double 11, freight activity remained high. As of November 16, the weekly port container throughput increased by 3.1% year - on - year. As of November 21, the 7 - day average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The weekly postal express pick - up volume increased by 8.9% year - on - year, and the delivery volume increased by 5.8% year - on - year. The weekly railway freight volume and highway truck traffic volume increased by 5.3% year - on - year. [32][36] 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of November 19, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. As of November 20, the average asphalt operating rate decreased by 5.0 percentage points year - on - year. The soda ash operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points year - on - year. [38][43] 2.4 Real Estate - As of November 21, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 16.2% year - on - year. As of November 16, the number of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 41.3% year - on - year. [46][49] 2.5 Prices - As of November 21, most prices recovered month - on - month. The average pork wholesale price decreased by 24.4% year - on - year but increased by 1.3% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average price of northern port thermal coal decreased by 0.7% year - on - year but increased by 11.9% compared to 4 weeks ago. [50] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On November 21, short - term rates mostly declined. Treasury yields mostly increased, with the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields at 1.40%/1.59%/1.82%/2.16% respectively, up 0.9BP/0.2BP/1.0BP compared to November 14 (except for the 1 - year, which decreased by 0.5BP). The US, Japanese, British, and German 10 - year Treasury yields were 4.06%, 1.78%, 4.55%, and 2.76% respectively, down 8BP/up 8BP/down 2BP/down 3BP compared to November 14. The US dollar - RMB central parity rate and spot exchange rate increased by 50/96 pips compared to November 14. [58][60][69] 4. Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first declining, then rising, and then declining. As of November 21, the estimated average duration was about 4.9 years, and the median was about 4.4 years, down 0.02/up 0.18 years compared to November 14. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend, and has declined this week. The estimated average duration was about 2.1 years, and the median was about 2.0 years, down 0.07 years compared to November 14. [73][74] 5. Investment Suggestions - The report is bullish on the bond market. Due to domestic economic pressure, falling housing prices, and high short - term interest rates, there is a significant need to cut policy rates. With the Fed's rate - cut cycle, policy rates may be cut by 20BP in the next six months. The report predicts that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury yield to 1.9%, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of large banks to 1.9%. [4][78]