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存单周报:资金压力有限,提价可增配-20250518
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-18 14:13
Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (0512 - 0518): Limited Funding Pressure, Consider Increasing Allocation with Price Increase [1] - Report Date: May 18, 2025 [1] - Research Institution: Huachuang Securities Research Institute [1] - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi [1] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Under the pressure of funding gaps, attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the funding center. If the certificate of deposit price increases, it can be considered for increased allocation. The supply - side pressure to increase price for volume is limited, and the demand side is still strongly supported by wealth management. If the yield approaches 1.7%, the allocation value of certificates of deposit can be actively considered [2][46]. Summary by Directory Supply: Net financing decline and maturity structure compression - This week (May 12 - May 18), the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 51.399 billion yuan, and the net financing was 6.853 billion yuan (compared with 24.819 billion yuan from April 28 to May 11). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 34% to 39%, and that of joint - stock banks decreased from 30% to 13%. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased from 35% to 23%, and the weighted issuance maturity was compressed to 5.49 months (previous value was 7.51 months) [2][5]. - Next week (May 19 - May 25), the maturity scale will rise to 73.724 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 15.472 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in state - owned and joint - stock banks, with the 1 - year maturity amount being the highest at 37.324 billion yuan [2][5]. Demand: Wealth management is the main buyer in the secondary market, and the primary market subscription rate remains high - In the secondary market, wealth management is the main buyer, with the weekly net purchase volume increasing from 6.5632 billion yuan to 7.451 billion yuan. Wealth management outsourcing (other products) decreased slightly from 6.493 billion yuan to 6.1477 billion yuan, and money market funds had a weekly net purchase of 5.3526 billion yuan. Joint - stock banks' net sales decreased from 5.8852 billion yuan to 2.17 billion yuan, and city commercial banks' net sales increased from 14.1993 billion yuan to 14.9279 billion yuan. State - owned banks changed from net sales of 1.0485 billion yuan to net purchases of 0.187 billion yuan [14]. - In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) rose to around 93%. By institution, the subscription rate of city commercial banks decreased from 95% to 88%, that of rural commercial banks decreased from 98% to 87%, that of state - owned banks increased from 99% to 100%, and that of joint - stock banks decreased from 99% to 95% [14]. Valuation: Slight divergence in primary and secondary market trends - **Primary pricing**: The pricing of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit dropped to around 1.6%. Specifically, the 1 - month pricing remained around 1.62%, while the 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year varieties decreased by 1 - 6bp compared with last week. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks widened by 5bp, at the 14% historical quantile. The 1 - year credit spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 9.2BP to 8.76BP, and that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 10.33BP to 4.62BP [23]. - **Secondary yield**: The yield of AAA - rated certificates of deposit increased slightly. The secondary yields of AAA - rated certificates of deposit with various maturities decreased by 1 - 4bp. Specifically, the 1 - month and 9 - month yields increased by 4BP, the 6 - month increased by 1BP, the 1 - year increased by 2BP, and the 3 - month increased by 3BP. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated certificates of deposit narrowed, at the 13% historical quantile [29]. Comparison: Considering leverage space, the spread between certificates of deposit and short - term interest rates continues to compress - The spread between certificates of deposit and short - term interest rates continued to compress slightly. Specifically, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and the 15 - day moving average of DR007 changed from a negative 3.34BP to 3.17BP; the spread with the 15 - day moving average of R007 changed from a negative 6.45BP to 0.29BP. The spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds narrowed slightly to 22.42BP, with the quantile dropping to around 3%. The spread between certificates of deposit and policy - bank bonds narrowed by 2bp to 16.98BP, with the quantile dropping to 11%. In addition, the spread between AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes and certificates of deposit widened slightly to 2.37BP, with the quantile dropping to around 8% [36].