后周期复苏
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中联重科(000157)深度研究:后周期复苏蓄势 “价值+成长”领航
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-18 06:28
Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned as a post-cycle player with strong growth potential in new markets and products, particularly in the context of the ongoing recovery in the domestic engineering machinery sector [1][2]. Group 1: Company Characteristics - The company is a typical post-cycle entity, with the current domestic engineering machinery cycle gradually shifting from excavators to concrete machinery and cranes, indicating potential for post-cycle elasticity [1]. - The company has achieved a three-year CAGR of 62% in overseas revenue, with significant growth in its three new business segments: earthmoving, agricultural machinery, and high-end machinery [1]. Group 2: Valuation and Dividend - The company is considered one of the industry leaders with a low valuation and high dividend yield, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 50%, highlighting its value proposition [1]. - The ongoing global and diversified strategy has transformed the company from a "cyclical" to a "value growth" enterprise, significantly enhancing the quality and sustainability of its performance [1]. Group 3: Innovation and AI Integration - The company has developed five humanoid robots and established a training facility with hundreds of workstations, with several units already operational in factories [1]. - The launch of the cloud-based intelligent model and toolchain, combined with comprehensive resources in policies, components, and computing power, positions the company favorably in the AI-enabled smart manufacturing landscape [1]. Group 4: Organizational Structure and Market Strategy - The company features a diversified and market-oriented shareholding structure that retains the resource advantages of a state-owned enterprise while enhancing market-driven operational vitality [2]. - The integration of software and hardware in R&D, along with the establishment of the Zhonglian Smart Industrial City, leverages policy benefits to build advanced production capacity at minimal cost [2]. - The direct sales model, complemented by the "airport" model and localization strategies, is expected to enhance profitability and expand the direct sales approach globally [2]. Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.8 billion, 6.3 billion, and 8 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2]. - A target price of 10.22 yuan per share for A-shares is set based on a 14x PE ratio for 2026, with a corresponding target price of 9.22 HKD per share for H-shares, maintaining a "buy" rating for both A and H shares [2].