晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 2026 年 03 月 03 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 4182.59 | 0.47 | | 深证成指 | 14465.79 | -0.20 | | 创业板指 | 3294.16 | -0.49 | | 科创 50 | 1464.77 | -1.56 | | 北证 50 | 1475.73 | -3.99 | | 沪深 300 | 4728.67 | 0.38 | 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -8% 2% 12% 22% 32% 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 2025-12 上证指数 沪深300 | 黄红卫 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 | | | huanghongwei@hnchasing.com | | | 陈郁双 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530524110001 | | | chenyushuang@hnchasing.com | | 晨会聚焦 一、财信研究观点 【市场策略】三 ...

装备制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 2 日 [T分析师： able_Author 赵晓闯] 执业证书号：S1030511010004 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：zhaoxc@csco.com.cn 分析师：杨贵洲 执业证书号：S1030524060001 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：yanggz1@csco.com.cn 研究助理：董李延楠 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：donglyn@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] 证券研究报告 光伏产业链上下游分化 [Table_ReportType]装备制造行业周报（2 月第 4 周） [Table_S 市场行情回顾 ummary] ： 春节前后两周 9 个交易日机械设备、电力设备及汽车行业指 数涨跌幅分别为+6.86%、+3.04%及+2.36%，在 31 个申万一级 行业中排名分别为第 11、16、17 位；同期沪深 300 涨跌幅为 +1 ...

证券研究报告 工程机械 行业深度报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 02 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 工程机械行业深度报告 投资评级： 看好（首次） ——七十年艰苦奋斗路，两周期寰宇立潮头 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 图表目录 工程机械的行业逻辑是怎样的？工程机械是国民经济建设的重要支柱产业，2024 年 全球工程机械行业规模达 2135 亿美元，其中中国市场规模为 234 亿美元，占比 11%。 挖掘机械、装载机、起重机械产品价值量分列前三，占行业整体超 60%份额。上游 成本中原材料占比最高，液压系统是价值核心。行业根本需求逻辑或来自国内下游 新增 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-03-02 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260302：伊朗问题对股债商汇等大类资产的影响 事件：2026 年 02 月 28 日，美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事打击，伊朗对 以色列及中东地区多处目标予以还击，阿联酋、巴林、科威特、沙特等中 东多国发生爆炸，中东地缘冲突正在加剧并扩散。 观点：2 月份以来， 地缘政治风险已悄然积聚，全球金融市场通过原油和黄金的联动上涨显 现出强烈的避险情绪。2 月 28 日伊朗地区军事冲突爆发，核心风险主要 体现在三个层面：（1）"能源咽喉"阻塞风险，霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油 运输的咽喉要道，运输量约 2000 万桶/日，约占全球石油总消费量的 20%， 约占全球 1/4 的海运石油贸易量，如果霍尔木兹海峡被实质性封锁，国际 原油价格极可能在短期内持续冲高；（2）化工产业链中断风险，伊朗是全 球第二大甲醇生产国，占全球产能约 10%，而中国超过 60%的进口甲醇 来自伊朗，供应中断将直接冲击下游的烯烃和塑料加工行业；（3）运费与 保险飙升风险，若地区冲突向着失控的局面演化，波斯湾及红海 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Engineering Machinery Industry Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a potential recovery due to the nearing update cycle of excavators in China, combined with emission constraints and accelerated second-hand machinery exports, leading to a possible lower actual ownership than market expectations [1][2] - The "artificial substitution" logic continues to drive demand, with room for growth in excavator ownership compared to developed countries, particularly as urbanization progresses and maintenance needs increase [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - The domestic equipment update cycle typically spans 8-10 years, with a significant portion of excavators entering a phase of extended usage and maintenance costs, indicating a need for gradual updates [2] - The actual ownership of excavators may be tighter than market estimates due to the impact of engine updates and emission constraints, as well as accelerated second-hand exports, which could lead to a steeper demand curve if recovery occurs [2] - The shift in construction demand from "earthwork" to "non-excavation" categories, such as truck cranes and crawler cranes, suggests a potential expansion of investment into tower cranes and subsequent maintenance phases [1][4] Export Trends - A notable increase in engineering machinery exports is expected by the end of 2025, with an estimated growth rate of approximately 14% for the year, driven by changes in tariff policies and enhanced competitiveness of Chinese companies [5][6] - The demand for overseas mining machinery is supported not only by commodity prices but also by the sustained urbanization efforts in resource-rich countries, providing ongoing support for engineering machinery demand [7] Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Market Influence - China's FDI growth, particularly in Belt and Road Initiative countries, has increased Chinese participation in local mining and energy projects, thereby boosting demand for engineering machinery [8][9] Market Signals and Demand Recovery - Recent surveys indicate a more optimistic outlook for equipment purchases in the U.S. market, with a decrease in contractors planning to refrain from buying equipment, suggesting a structural improvement in demand [10][12] - In Europe, particularly Germany, there are positive signals with engineering machinery orders showing an 18% year-on-year increase, indicating a better-than-expected performance [13] Rental Market and Recovery Indicators - The domestic tower crane rental market shows signs of recovery, with rental rates and utilization rates reaching their highest levels in three years, indicating a potential upward trend in demand [14] Future Catalysts - Key catalysts for future growth include domestic macro and industrial policies, global commodity price trends, and the expansion of data center construction in Southeast Asia, which may drive additional demand for engineering machinery [15][16] Sector and Stock Recommendations - The focus is on three main categories: complete machinery (e.g., SANY, XCMG), components (e.g., Hengli Hydraulic), and general equipment (e.g., Anhui Heli). The order of benefits will depend on the timing of demand recovery in emerging markets versus developed markets [17]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **engineering machinery industry** and its outlook for **2026**. The industry is expected to experience a mild recovery, with significant potential for growth driven by various factors, including seasonal demand and policy support [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Surge in 2026**: The traditional peak season for engineering machinery in China (March-April) is likely to exceed expectations due to higher market share aspirations from manufacturers and diversified sales strategies [1][2]. - **Improvement in Payment Collection**: Since August 2024, payment collection has improved from a range of 30%-40% to nearly 50%, indicating a shift from a critical balance state to a more sustainable one [3]. - **Sales Growth Projections**: The domestic sales growth for engineering machinery in 2026 is projected to be between **5%-10%** under baseline conditions, with potential increases to **10%-20%** if unconventional sales methods like "turning to export" and operating leases are considered [4][5]. - **Export Performance**: The unexpected export growth in 2025 was primarily driven by demand from regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Indonesia, particularly for large excavators, which have significantly higher profit margins compared to other products [6][7]. Additional Important Content - **Risks and Challenges**: Key risks include exchange rate fluctuations and the impact of Russia's scrappage tax on short-term export volatility [9][10]. - **Cost Structure and Material Prices**: The impact of rising raw material prices on manufacturers is manageable, as direct materials constitute a relatively low percentage of total costs, and the ability to pass on costs is limited [11]. - **Valuation Trends**: Leading manufacturers are currently valued at around **20 times earnings**, with potential for further upward adjustment due to improved asset quality and shareholder returns [12][13]. - **Stock Selection Recommendations**: The focus for stock selection includes major manufacturers such as SANY, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, and Shantui, as well as component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic [14]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections regarding the engineering machinery industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks as the sector approaches 2026.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities in the AIDC and solar power sectors due to electricity shortages in North America, as well as historical opportunities in advanced packaging equipment for semiconductors [1][2][3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: Northern Huachuang, SANY Heavy Industry, Zhongwei Company, Hengli Hydraulic, CIMC, Tuojing Technology, Haitian International, Bichu Electronics, Jingsheng Mechanical, Jereh, Zhejiang Dingli, Hangcha Group, Xianjin Intelligent, Changchuan Technology, Huace Detection, Anhui Helix, Jingce Electronics, Nuwei Co., Chip Source Micro, Green Harmonics, Haitian Precision, Hangke Technology, Yizhiming, New Lai Materials, and High Measurement Shares [1] Gas Turbine Sector - The report notes that President Trump encourages large companies to build their own power sources, which is expected to boost demand for natural gas power generation equipment. The domestic gas turbine industry is highlighted as having significant investment opportunities, particularly for companies like Jereh, Dongfang Electric, and Yingliu [2] Photovoltaic Equipment - The report emphasizes the growing demand for solar power in both terrestrial and space computing applications, with Tesla planning to expand its solar capacity significantly by 2028. Companies recommended in this sector include Maiwei Shares, Jingsheng Mechanical, High Measurement Shares, and Aotwei [3] Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the benefits for domestic equipment manufacturers due to rising tensions between China and Japan, which favor local alternatives. Companies like Changchuan Technology, Chip Source Micro, and Maiwei are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [4] PCB Equipment and Liquid Cooling - NVIDIA's strong performance is noted, with significant revenue growth indicating robust demand for computing power. The report suggests investment opportunities in the PCB and liquid cooling supply chains, recommending companies like Dazhu CNC, Chip Source Micro, and Yinguang Technology [5][6] Robotics Industry - The report indicates a recent pullback in the robotics sector but suggests that upcoming events, such as the release of Tesla's V3 robot, could catalyze growth. Companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Sanhua Intelligent are recommended as key players [10] Oil and Gas Equipment - The report identifies the Middle East as a core market for oil services, with companies like Jereh and Nuwei highlighted for their growth potential in this region [43]

2026 年 03 月 01 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 近期涨价链行情观点及 3-4 月布局思路 最近一年走势 相关报告 《流动性周报 2 月第 3 期：社融同比增速放缓，权 益基金发行回暖*赵阳》——2026-02-24 《年报预报落地后，市场如何演绎？*赵阳》—— 2026-02-01 《流动性周报 1 月第 3 期：宏观资金均衡偏松，ETF 继续大幅净流出*赵阳》——2026-01-28 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、怎么看待近期涨价链行情；2、即将 到来的三月该配置什么风格和主题。 | 2、 | 三月中旬开始可能要关注风格切换 6 | | --- | --- | | 3、 | 三月的三个配置思路 8 | | 4、 | 风险提示 14 | 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《流动性周报 2 月第 2 期：宽基流出明显收窄*赵 阳》——2026-02-10 《流动性周报 2 月第 1 期：宽基 ETF 继续大幅流 出*赵阳》——2026-02-02 2 月份涨价是 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 机械行业周报（20260223-20260301） 推荐（维持） 建议关注商业航天、液冷 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 汇川技术 | 300124.SZ | 72.92 | 2.11 | 2.54 | 3.00 | 34.58 | 28.75 | 24.32 | 6.07 | 强推 | | 法兰泰克 | 603966.SH | 13.45 | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 22.44 | 17.58 | 14.26 | 3.06 | 强推 | | 信捷电气 | 603416.SH | 56.14 | 1.83 | 2.30 | 2.78 | 30.63 | 24.44 | 20. ...

风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2026/2/24-2026/2/27）4 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 4.07%，在申万 31 个一级行业 分类中排名第 12；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.08%。2026 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 14.04%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 9；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.74%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 约翰迪尔 26Q1 财报超预期，看好农机出口和周期反转。全球农机龙头约翰迪尔 2026 年一季报超预期，小型农 业与草皮业务（SA&T）实现收入 21.7 亿美元，同比增长 24%（26 年全年公司指引增长 15%）；生产与精准农业 业务（PP&A）实现收入 31.6 亿美元，同比增长 3%（26 年全年公司指引同比变动-5~-10%）；公司同时上调全年 利润指引，从 40-47.5 亿美元提升到 45-50 亿美元。全球中小型农机市场的复苏态势仍然蓬勃，主因是在全球 大宗商品价格上涨、农产品价格底部企稳的背景下，畜牧业、林果业显著反 ...