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2024人口格局变了!经济第一大省重返第一,经济第二大省陷入停滞!什么信号?
21世纪经济报道· 2025-04-01 09:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing population dynamics across various provinces in China in 2024, highlighting both growth and decline trends in different regions, influenced by economic factors and demographic shifts. Summary by Sections Population Growth Trends - In 2024, 25 provinces have reported population data, with 8 provinces showing positive growth. Notably, Guangdong ranks first in total population growth, while Zhejiang leads in mechanical growth [1][3][6]. - Some provinces that previously experienced continuous population growth, such as Jiangsu, have now reached zero growth, while others like Shaanxi, Anhui, and Fujian have rebounded [3][10]. Economic Factors Influencing Population Movement - The decline in cross-province migration is attributed to narrowing regional economic disparities and high living costs in major cities, which have reduced their attractiveness [4]. - Guangdong and Zhejiang maintain their appeal due to strong economic structures and development potential, particularly in digital economy and manufacturing [4][9]. Population Statistics - As of March 31, 2024, Guangdong's population is reported at 127.8 million, with a net increase of 740,000, while Shandong and Jiangsu show negative growth trends [6][9]. - In 2024, Shandong's natural population growth rate is -1.67‰, indicating a decline of 16,800 people, while Jiangsu's population remains stable compared to the previous year [9][10]. Demographic Changes and Aging Population - The article highlights the relationship between population changes and the aging demographic, with provinces like Jiangsu showing a significant proportion of elderly residents, impacting natural growth rates [11][18]. - The need for improving population structure through higher birth rates and attracting young talent is emphasized, as many regions face challenges due to aging populations [18][20]. Regional Variations and Strong Provincial Capitals - Some provinces, such as Shaanxi and Anhui, have seen a rebound in population due to the development of strong provincial capitals, which attract residents through diverse job opportunities and lower living costs compared to first-tier cities [14][16]. - The article notes that while some midwestern provinces are experiencing positive growth, eastern coastal regions remain the primary destinations for population inflow [17]. Policy Recommendations for Population Improvement - To address the challenges of an aging population, the article suggests enhancing public services related to childcare and healthcare, as well as implementing supportive policies for young families [20]. - Attracting young talent requires not only job opportunities but also a vibrant cultural environment that fosters a sense of belonging [20].