行 业 及 产 业 房地产 2025 年 11 月 02 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 10 月销售降幅扩大，政策亟待进一步呵护 看好 ——2025 年 10 月房企销售数据点评 事件： ⚫ 10 月 31 日，克而瑞发布 2025 年 10 月房地产公司销售排行，保利单月销售排名第一，实现销售金 额 210 亿元，中海、招蛇单月销售额分别为 186、154 亿元，排名第二、三位，前三门槛从去年同 期 310 亿元下降至 154 亿元。10 月单月销售过百亿房企为 9 家，较 2024 年同期减少 4 家。 点评： 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× guzheng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 10 月房企销售额单月同比-42%/累计同比-20%，分别较前值-32pct/-20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with significant month-on-month increases in new home sales across major cities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of favorable policies, including low mortgage rates and city-specific initiatives aimed at urban renewal, which are expected to stimulate market activity [3][32]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, particularly in commercial real estate and property management [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 2.604 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 166%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 170% increase [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 24%, with first and second-tier cities down 22% and third and fourth-tier cities down 43% [3][7][8]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current available area of 90.1 million square meters [3][23]. 2. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reported that the average mortgage rate for new loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down 25 basis points year-on-year [3][32]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources released 13 industry standards to guide urban renewal and the revitalization of underutilized spaces [3][32]. - Various cities have implemented tax incentives for rental housing enterprises and optimized public housing fund policies to support homebuyers [3][32]. 3. Company Performance - China Jinmao reported a 6% increase in sales volume to 3.675 million square meters and a 27.3% increase in sales revenue to 80.69 billion yuan for the first nine months [3][36]. - Other major developers like Poly Developments and China Vanke reported declines in sales volume and revenue, with Poly Developments seeing a 25.1% drop in sales volume [3][36]. - The report notes that several companies are actively engaging in financing activities, including issuing convertible bonds and providing loan guarantees [3][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5][46]. Core Views - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for recovery in core cities, leading to a rebound in leading companies and opening up new development avenues for "new products, new pricing, and new models" [5][46]. - The current monetary easing cycle is seen as advantageous for commercial real estate, with a reassessment of the value of high-quality commercial properties already beginning to manifest [5][46]. Industry Data - New home transaction volume in 34 key cities decreased by 22% year-on-year during the National Day holiday, with total transactions of 40 million square meters, which is only 42% of the average from 2017 to 2024 [5][15]. - In October, new home transactions in 34 cities are down 28.4% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities down 23.2% and third and fourth-tier cities down 58.5% [5][8]. - The inventory of residential properties in 15 cities increased by 0.1% week-on-week, with a total available area of 90.43 million square meters [5][28]. Policy and News Tracking - Various cities have introduced supportive policies for the real estate sector, including measures in Chongqing, Hefei, and Yunnan to enhance housing supply and optimize loan conditions [5][37]. - The report highlights significant land transactions, including a residential land deal in Beijing for approximately 4.31 billion yuan and six residential land deals in Nanjing totaling about 4.21 billion yuan [5][39]. Company Dynamics - China Merchants Shekou plans to issue up to 82 million preferred shares to fund project delivery, while Yuexiu Property secured a 3 billion HKD revolving loan [5][42]. - Jianfa International reported a cumulative sales amount of 71.03 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [5][42]. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 3.01%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which increased by 1.99% [5][46]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for mainstream AH-listed real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are 17.5 and 15.3 times, respectively [5][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Insights - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for recovery in core cities, leading to a resurgence in leading companies and opening new development avenues [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing monetary easing cycle, which favors commercial real estate, indicating that the revaluation of quality commercial properties has begun [4]. Industry Data Summary - **New Housing Transaction Volume**: In the week of September 27 to October 3, 2025, 34 key cities saw a total new housing transaction of 2.472 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 0.6%. The transaction volume for first and second-tier cities increased by 3.2%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline of 46.3% [4][5]. - **Monthly Year-on-Year Change**: In October, the transaction volume in 34 cities is expected to decrease by 28% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities down by 23% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 58.5% [4][7]. - **Inventory Levels**: As of October 3, 2025, the total available residential area in 15 cities was 90.434 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 0.1%. The average monthly depleting months for the last three months was 25.9 months, an increase of 1.1 months [4][28]. Policy and News Tracking - **Policy Initiatives**: Various cities have introduced supportive real estate policies, including the establishment of a land supply heat map mechanism in Hefei and enhanced housing subsidy policies in Yunnan [4][38]. - **Land Market Transactions**: In Nanjing, six residential land plots were sold for approximately 4.21 billion yuan, while a plot in Beijing's Sun Palace area was sold for about 4.31 billion yuan [4][38]. Company Dynamics - **Financing Activities**: China Merchants Shekou plans to issue up to 82 million preferred shares to fund project delivery, while Yuexiu Property secured a 3 billion HKD revolving loan [4][44]. - **Sales Performance**: Jianfa International reported a cumulative sales amount of 71.03 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, despite a decrease in sales area by 15.8% [4][44]. Sector Performance Review - **Market Performance**: The SW Real Estate Index rose by 3.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 1.99%. The real estate sector ranked 4th among 31 sectors [4][48].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly four-year high, closing at 3683.46 points, up 0.48%, surpassing the previous high of 3674.4 points from October 8, 2022 [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 2.15 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase of 269.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - As of August 13, 2025, 3511 stocks, representing 65.9% of the market, have surpassed their opening prices from October 8, 2022 [1] Underperforming Stocks - Despite the overall market rally, 172 stocks closed below their opening prices from September 24, 2022, with the ST sector being particularly affected, accounting for 39 of these stocks [1][2] - The stock *ST Suwu experienced the largest decline, down 87.8%, followed by *ST Zitian at -77.8% [2] Sector Performance - The food and beverage, as well as real estate sectors, are under pressure, with expectations of reaching performance bottoms by mid-2026 [7] - In contrast, the defense and pharmaceutical sectors have seen significant gains, with 60 stocks rising over 200% since October 8, 2022 [8] Notable High Performers - Among the top performers, *ST Yushun saw a remarkable increase of 580.28%, attributed to ongoing major asset restructuring [9] - The stock *ST Suwu led the declines, while other notable gainers include stocks from the basic chemical and medical sectors, with some stocks increasing over 1000% [10][11] Future Outlook - Analysts from Zheshang Securities predict that the market is in a "systematic slow bull" phase, with expectations for the Shanghai Composite Index to exceed previous highs [11] - Pacific Securities indicates a long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by shifting fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumer spending [12]

Group 1 - UBS expects the US stock market to decline in August due to worsening economic data, which may present a buying opportunity [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts the Federal Reserve will begin a series of three 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September, with a potential 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [2] - Deutsche Bank suggests that the sentiment for Fed rate cuts may continue to rise, especially after disappointing labor market reports [2] Group 2 - Dutch International Bank analysts indicate that OPEC+ may end its production increase as summer demand wanes and inventories rise [3] - Barclays forecasts that the European Central Bank will cut rates once more, with a 25 basis point reduction expected in December [4] - Barclays also notes that credit rating improvements in peripheral Eurozone countries are helping to narrow government bond yield spreads [4] Group 3 - MUFG analysts highlight that traders are concerned about potential secondary tariffs on Russian oil exports by the US, which could impact supply amid rising OPEC+ production [5] - Citic Securities believes the Chinese liquor industry is rapidly bottoming out, with leading companies adjusting channel structures for better market opportunities [7] - Citic Securities also anticipates a comprehensive price increase for mainstream and niche storage products in Q3, driven by seasonal demand [8] Group 4 - Huatai Securities expresses optimism about the commercial real estate sector under a value reassessment logic, particularly for operators with strong shopping center assets [9] - GF Securities sees significant potential in the STAR Market, driven by regulatory liquidity and the potential for capital inflows [10] - China International Capital Corporation notes that the commercialization of genetically modified crops will continue to accelerate, enhancing food security [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [8] Core Insights - The commercial real estate sector faces challenges in 2024, but leading companies are expected to outperform the industry in terms of scale expansion and operational efficiency. The investment opportunities in the commercial real estate sector for 2025 are promising due to several factors: 1) Policy catalysts are likely to support a sustained recovery in the consumer market, providing a solid foundation for commercial real estate [2][3]; 2) Consumer REITs are facilitating operators in asset monetization, liquidity, management premiums, and extending light-asset operational space [2]; 3) The relative management advantages of leading operators are continuously improving, reinforcing the logic of increasing concentration [2]; 4) Valuation advantages are becoming evident, with the valuation of held properties now roughly equivalent to market capitalization, as exemplified by New Town Holdings, where the market value of its development business is below the reasonable valuation of its held property segment, further enhancing investment value [2] Summary by Sections Market Environment - The retail real estate sector in 2024 is facing supply and demand challenges, with an increase in quality retail property supply in first- and second-tier cities, while consumer market activity remains relatively subdued, particularly in high-energy cities. The demand structure is rapidly changing, with an increasing emphasis on experiential and personalized value, leading to a higher tenant adjustment ratio and improved bargaining power for new brands. Operators are adopting a "price for volume" strategy, prioritizing occupancy rates over rental income to stabilize customer flow. As a result, rental declines in retail real estate are expected to widen in 2024, but with the implementation of various growth-stabilizing policies, market demand is showing signs of warming towards the end of the year, indicating an imminent market improvement [3][16] Supply - The new supply of quality retail properties in 2024 is expected to remain stable year-on-year, with first- and second-tier cities being the main supply drivers. The overall operational efficiency has declined due to the high inventory of quality retail properties and slowing consumption growth. In the first half of 2024, operators slowed down the pace of new supply, but a concentrated supply period is anticipated in the second half. According to JLL data, the new supply of quality retail properties in 21 core cities in 2024 is projected to be 8.696 million square meters, a slight increase of 1.4% year-on-year [35][36] Operations - High-energy cities are facing significant supply and demand pressures, leading to a more pronounced "price for volume" strategy. The average rental price of quality shopping centers in 21 cities is expected to decline by 3.3% year-on-year in 2024, with an overall vacancy rate of 10.2%, showing a year-on-year decrease. Only Beijing is expected to see a rental increase, while other first-tier cities are under pressure from new supply [41][42] Companies - Leading domestic operators are maintaining their expansion pace, with same-store retail sales growth outperforming the market. By the end of 2024, major domestic operators like China Resources Land, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and New Town Holdings are expected to see significant growth in their retail property areas. The rental income of leading operators is approaching the 20 billion threshold, with positive growth driven by external growth and improved occupancy rates. However, overall rental efficiency is under pressure due to consumer challenges and project ramp-up periods [4][50][63] Strategic Insights - The report highlights a shift from asset accumulation to profit generation, with C-REITs enabling value reassessment. The share of gross profit from held properties for major operators is increasing, marking a transition to a "dual rental and sales" model, where held properties become the core of profits. The expansion of consumer REITs is expected to enhance liquidity premiums for quality assets [5][6]