港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：磐石 商业地皮方面，连续第二年没有商业用地推出发售，将透过改善供需情况来支持写字楼及零售物业市 场。而各项人才计划已吸引27万人来港，其中逾10万人透过高端人才通行证计划来港，为香港创造额外 的住屋需求。 另外，政府正寻求将房托基金(REITs)纳入互联互通机制，并引入修订条例草案以促进REITs私有化或重 组，以及可能豁免寻求上市的REITs转让非住宅物业的印花税；此举对领展属正面因素。整体而言，该 行对香港楼价复苏保持建设性看法，预期今年楼价升10%，且不预期年内会推出任何收紧措施。香港地 产股年初至今股价已累升约20%至50%，部分上行空间已被消化。即将展开的业绩期，在利润率下降及 2026年盈利展望疲弱下，可能带来波动。 2月26日，摩根士丹利发表研报指，港府新一份《财政预算案》宣布将价值超过1亿港元的住宅物业印花 税率上调至6.5%。该行估算此类物业在2025年占总成交量0.3%，但占总成交额8%，预期措施将对九龙 仓集团构成负面影响；其他有此类物业风险敞口的公司包括恒隆地产、长实、恒地及新地。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing significant growth, with a notable increase in both primary and secondary residential property transactions, indicating a recovery trend in the sector [4][6][7]. Group 1: Primary Residential Market - In January, the transaction value of primary residential properties more than doubled year-on-year, reaching HKD 19.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 148% [4][6]. - The number of primary residential transactions in January was 1,539, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 103% [6][7]. - Key developers such as Henderson Land, New World Development, and Cheung Kong achieved sales growth exceeding 100%, with the total sales of six major developers increasing by 173% [4][7]. Group 2: Secondary Residential Market - The secondary residential market also saw a significant increase, with transaction values rising by over 50% year-on-year, totaling HKD 29 billion in January [4][8]. - The average price index for large residential estates increased by 2.5% month-on-month and 7.3% year-on-year, marking the largest monthly increase in three years [4][8]. Group 3: Financial Environment - The mortgage loan environment remains supportive, with new mortgage approvals in December increasing by 22% year-on-year, and the average mortgage rate decreasing to 3.25% [5][11]. - The overall mortgage-to-value ratio has improved to 60.1%, indicating a stable financial backdrop for property transactions [5][11]. Group 4: Commercial Real Estate - The vacancy rates for commercial properties, including private offices and retail spaces, have shown improvement, with a decrease in vacancy rates by 0.3 percentage points for offices and 1.2 percentage points for retail properties [5][12]. - Retail sales continued to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in December, driven by a rise in tourist numbers and economic recovery [5][12][13]. Group 5: Land Transactions - In January, a residential land parcel in Kowloon was successfully bid by a consortium led by Sino Land, with a transaction price of HKD 1.61 billion [10][30]. - The land area was approximately 3,800 square meters, with a planned gross floor area of 20,682 to 34,470 square meters [10][30].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment in Chengdu shows a GDP of 4,148.9 billion CNY, with a third industry growth rate of 6.0% and a retail sales growth rate of 6.5% [4][6][8] - The average disposable income for urban residents in Chengdu is 44,507 CNY [10] - The real estate development investment growth rate in Chengdu is -0.2%, indicating a challenging market [14] - The office market in Chengdu has a total stock of 3,473,265 square meters, with an average rent of 84.00 CNY per square meter per month, and a vacancy rate of 31.8% [19][35] - The retail market has a total stock of 8,498,923 square meters, with an average rent of 585.00 CNY per square meter per month, and a vacancy rate of 8.68% [40][54] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - Chengdu's GDP is 4,148.9 billion CNY, with a third industry growth rate of 6.0% and retail sales growth of 6.5% [4][6][8] - The average disposable income for urban residents is 44,507 CNY [10] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment growth rate in Chengdu is -0.2% [14] - Major land transactions in 2025 include residential land in various districts, with prices ranging from 16,500 to 21,500 CNY per square meter [17] Office Market Overview - The office market has a total stock of 3,473,265 square meters, with an average rent of 84.00 CNY per square meter per month and a vacancy rate of 31.8% [19][35] - The market has not recorded any new supply in the last quarter, and the net absorption has turned negative for the first time [35] - The financial district is expected to see significant new projects entering the market, which may create pressure on supply and demand balance [35] Retail Market Overview - The retail market has a total stock of 8,498,923 square meters, with an average rent of 585.00 CNY per square meter per month and a vacancy rate of 8.68% [40][54] - The market is expected to see a slowdown in new supply due to some projects being stalled [54] - International brands are expanding their presence in Chengdu, indicating strong consumer potential [54]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has issued a report rating Link REIT (00823) as "in line with the market" with a target price of HKD 37 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Link REIT is expected to announce its fiscal year results for the period ending March 2026 in May [1] - Despite improvements in Hong Kong's retail sales, Morgan Stanley anticipates a year-on-year decrease of 7.3% in distribution per unit for the fiscal year 2026, while the market predicts a decline of 9.3% [1] - This indicates that the distribution per unit in the second half of 2026 is expected to decline by 9.9% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - The report highlights that the downward trend in renewal rents may continue until the first half of the fiscal year 2027 due to lagging effects and slower-than-expected recovery in mass retail [1] - The growth of online sales and increased penetration of e-commerce in China may pose challenges to Link REIT's retail property portfolio [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese commercial real estate investment market is expected to recover in 2026 despite cautious investor sentiment, with a slight increase in the proportion of respondents planning to invest and sell more actively [1] - Domestic net investment intentions have turned positive due to institutional investors and real estate funds, while foreign investors continue to show a net selling intention [2] Investment Sentiment - 43% of respondents plan to adopt a more aggressive investment strategy in 2026, and 52% are inclined to sell more actively, indicating a potential increase in transaction willingness [1] - 39% of respondents intend to increase their real estate asset allocation, up 3 percentage points from the previous year, with 12% planning significant increases, a rise of 6 percentage points [5] Property Preferences - Industrial logistics, rental residential, and retail properties remain the top three preferred property types among investors [6] - In alternative assets, student apartments have gained significant attention due to a supply-demand gap in higher education dormitory space, followed by infrastructure and life sciences real estate [9] Financing Environment - Nearly 80% of investors expect further interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China in 2026, and new regulations on merger loans have improved the financing environment for large-scale commercial real estate investments [10] - The rental residential sector is expected to continue its growth trend, supported by policies for urban renewal and the integration of private-public REITs [10] ESG Considerations - Investors are shifting from general concern to a more focused approach regarding Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards, with 83% already adopting or planning to adopt ESG criteria in real estate investments [11] - Green buildings are recognized for their competitive advantage in attracting and retaining tenants, contributing to improved cash flow performance [11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Shenyang Grade A office market maintained a total stock of 1,369,293 square meters with no new supply in Q4 2025, and recorded a net absorption of -5,470 square meters, leading to a vacancy rate increase to 33.5% [38] - The average rent decreased by 2.7% to RMB 55.1 per square meter per month [38] - The retail market in Shenyang remained stable with a total stock of 6,569,251 square meters and an average rent of RMB 227 per square meter per month, while the overall vacancy rate was 19.53% [62] Summary by Sections Macro Economic Overview - Shenyang's GDP was reported at 7,248 billion RMB, with a third industry growth rate of 4.3% [4][6] - The per capita disposable income for urban residents was 43,482 RMB [10] Real Estate Development - Real estate development investment growth rate in Shenyang was -26.0% [13] Major Land Transactions - Significant land transactions included commercial and residential land in Heping District and Yuhong District, with total prices ranging from 0.239 billion to 6.445 billion RMB [16] Grade A Office Market Overview - The total stock of Grade A office space was 1,369,293 square meters, with no new supply in Q4 2025 [22] - The average rent was RMB 55.1 per square meter per month, with a vacancy rate of 33.5% [38] - The top three industries by leasing transactions were trade (23%), TMT (22%), and professional services (21%) [32] Retail Market Overview - The total stock of quality retail properties was 6,569,251 square meters, with an average rent of RMB 227 per square meter per month [42] - The vacancy rate was 19.53%, and the market focused on the decommissioning and upgrading of existing projects [62] - New store openings were primarily in the dining and experiential retail sectors, indicating a shift towards innovative consumption [62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong real estate sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is showing signs of bottoming out, with potential benefits for Hong Kong-based real estate companies. Since 2018-2019, the market has undergone significant adjustments, but there are indications of marginal improvements in office rental rates and vacancy rates in core areas, as well as a narrowing decline in retail property rents. The macroeconomic and property market recovery may lead to a gradual exit from the low point, positively impacting rental income and property value reassessment for developers [3][6][21]. Summary by Sections Hong Kong Commercial Real Estate - The report indicates that Hong Kong's commercial real estate is currently at a bottoming signal, with core area office rents and vacancy rates showing marginal improvements. Retail property rent declines are also narrowing, suggesting a potential recovery in the market [3][6]. Swire Properties - Swire Properties is highlighted as a leading comprehensive commercial project developer and operator, with 2024 revenue from Hong Kong and mainland China accounting for 60% and 37% respectively. The company has a high proportion of rental income from properties, with 93% of its income derived from property investments. The tenant structure is favorable, and the company has committed to a significant investment plan of HKD 670 billion by 2025 [3][39][81]. Hang Lung Properties - Hang Lung Properties focuses on high-end properties, with a diversified portfolio across nine cities in Hong Kong and mainland China. In 2024, rental income from mainland properties accounted for 57.5%, while Hong Kong's rental income was 27.1%. The company aims to stabilize rental income through project expansions and asset optimization [3][97][98]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with a high proportion of rental income, such as Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties, as they are likely to benefit from the recovery in the commercial real estate market driven by financial activity and retail sector recovery [3][21].

Core Insights - The report by JLL highlights a recovery in Shanghai's real estate market, with demand for Grade A office spaces driven by cost-sensitive relocations and upgrades, stable retail leasing demand, and a resurgence of investment activity in core areas [1] Grade A Office Market - The overall market liquidity continued to recover moderately in Q4, with a net absorption of 161,000 square meters for the quarter and a total of 499,000 square meters for the year [3] - The financial sector remains the primary driver of demand for Grade A office spaces, accounting for 23% of the total demand, followed by the technology and internet sectors at 17%, particularly in artificial intelligence [3] - Professional services, represented by domestic law firms, maintained resilience with a demand share of 14%, while outdoor sports and trendy brands showed expansion needs due to changing consumer patterns [3] Retail Property Market - In Q4, the net absorption in Shanghai's urban areas reached 273,000 square meters, bringing the total for the year to 404,000 square meters [4] - Emerging consumer trends and policy stimuli have created new opportunities, with demand driven primarily by consumer electronics, sports apparel, trendy goods, pet consumption, and affordable dining [4] Hotel Market - The Shanghai tourism market is experiencing a robust recovery, with a significant increase in international visitors, leading to improved hotel performance [5] - During the New Year holiday, the city welcomed 6.82 million tourists, generating a total tourism consumption of 12.271 billion yuan, with an average hotel occupancy rate of 70% [5] - The recovery in international tourist flow has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, although some areas face increased competition due to recent supply additions [5] Industrial Parks - Three industrial park projects were completed in Q4, with a total construction area of 618,000 square meters, and a net absorption of 396,000 square meters for the year [7] - Tenants are actively seeking quality upgrades and cost balance in response to new project entries, with technology and internet companies being the main demand drivers [7] - Headquarters economy and research institutions are also showing active demand, with preferred projects being those with comprehensive advantages [7] Logistics Real Estate - The leasing demand for logistics real estate in Shanghai remains stable, with a net absorption of 263,500 square meters in Q4 and a total of 533,600 square meters for the year [8] - Cost-sensitive tenants are optimizing space to enhance operational efficiency, which is a key source of demand in the logistics sector [8] Investment Market - In 2025, the Shanghai bulk transaction market saw a slight decline, with 89 transactions totaling approximately 48.7 billion yuan [9] - The office asset class accounted for 52% of transaction value and 42% of transaction volume, indicating continued investor focus [9] - Investment demand constituted 82% of the market, reflecting confidence in the long-term appreciation of bulk assets in Shanghai, particularly in core areas [9]

Core Insights - The 2025 Beijing real estate market shows signs of resilience despite challenges, with office vacancy rates declining for four consecutive quarters and retail properties benefiting from urban renewal initiatives [1] Office Market - The office market in Beijing experienced a historical low in new supply, with only 180,000 square meters added in 2025, alleviating market de-stocking pressure [2] - New leasing demand showed a "high-middle-weak" trend throughout the year, with relocation needs dominating at 76% of transactions, while the area of relocation transactions decreased compared to the previous year [2][3] - The net absorption for the year reached 438,000 square meters, leading to a year-on-year vacancy rate decrease of 1.9 percentage points to 19.1% [3] - Average rental prices in the city fell by 2.7% year-on-year to 228.5 yuan per square meter, with a total annual decline of 10.7% [4] Retail Market - The retail property market saw a total new supply of 534,000 square meters, all from urban renewal projects, indicating a shift towards "old for new" strategies [6] - The overall retail sales in Beijing decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed, suggesting signs of market stabilization [7] - The average rent for shopping centers decreased by 1.0% to 30.0 yuan per square meter, with an annual decline of 2.4% [8] Warehouse and Logistics Market - The warehouse and logistics market faced a supply peak with 1.4 million square meters added, resulting in a record high vacancy rate of 40.7% [10] - The demand shifted from third-party logistics to manufacturing, with new leasing demand driven by sectors like automotive parts and pharmaceuticals, accounting for 40% of new leases [10][11] - Average rents in Beijing fell to 37.1 yuan per square meter, marking a 14.8% annual decline [11] Business Park Market - The business park market welcomed seven new projects, primarily in the life sciences sector, totaling 598,000 square meters [12] - The net absorption for the year was 465,000 square meters, with the strongest demand observed in the Yizhuang Economic Development Zone [13] - Average rents in the business park sector decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, with an annual decline of 10.9% [14] Investment Market - The Beijing investment market recorded 40 transactions totaling 23.27 billion yuan, with a notable increase in transaction volume in the fourth quarter [16] - Corporate buyers accounted for 71% of transactions, indicating a strong interest in core assets despite a decline in transaction value [17] - Office assets dominated the market, comprising 64% of total transaction value, reflecting a continued preference for core area properties [18]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the Beijing retail property market is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on urban renewal and the optimization of retail formats, particularly in the food and beverage sector [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Supply and Trends - In 2025, the total new supply of retail properties in Beijing is projected to be 534,000 square meters, all coming from urban renewal projects, highlighting a trend of "old for new" in the market [1] - The food and beverage sector remains the largest segment in Beijing's retail property market, although its share decreased from 49% at the beginning of the year to 42% by the fourth quarter, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [1] - The report notes a significant increase in the share of lifestyle stores, which reached 8.4% in the fourth quarter, driven by consumer demand for emotional satisfaction and enhanced shopping experiences [1][2] Group 2: Performance and Rental Trends - The retail property vacancy rate in Beijing saw its first decline in the fourth quarter after four consecutive quarters of increase, attributed to landlords adopting strategies such as rent concessions and focusing on more attractive tenant types [2] - Average rent for first-floor shopping centers in Beijing decreased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter to 30.0 yuan per square meter per day, with an annual decline of 2.4% [2] - There is a notable market differentiation, with secondary business districts like Zhongguancun and Wangjing facing significant rental pressure due to new supply and insufficient local demand, while core business districts maintained stable occupancy and rental levels [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2026, over 500,000 square meters of new retail property supply is expected in Beijing, primarily from renovation projects in mature business districts and large new developments in peripheral areas, indicating a diverse positioning strategy [3] - The upcoming projects are anticipated to focus on themes such as "emotional value" and "heritage + commerce," aiming to attract foot traffic through unique commercial experiences [3] - This evolution is expected to contribute to the high-level development of Beijing's commercial landscape, characterized by "multi-center, networked, and differentiated" growth [3]