李凌表示，高库存是行业"内卷"的根源，但这一局面有望在"十五五"期间迎来转折。办公楼新开工面积 在2024年已降至2019年峰值的四分之一，预计从"十五五"后期开始，新增供应将显著放缓。 高标仓市场的调整更为迅速。2026年新增供应预计同比下降30%，2027年将进一步降至300万平方米以 下，空置率有望回落至15%左右的健康水平。尽管跨境电商需求增速放缓，但高标仓作为基础设施的韧 性凸显：2025年前三季度净吸纳量同比增长62%，达720万平方米，创历史新高。 "高标仓资产价格已逐步触底，部分项目估值甚至跌破建设成本。"李凌指出，"随着供需在未来1–2年内 再平衡，资产价格将迎来系统性重估。"与此同时，零售物业展现出抗周期韧性。他建议投资者关注区 域型购物中心和目的地型奥特莱斯，并适度布局经济发达区域的三线城市龙头项目。 新华财经北京11月14日电（康耕甫） 近日，国内一线城市商业地产迎来投资风口。研究报告显示，国 资、险资等投资型买家正积极买入上海核心物业，人民银行重庆分行也在推动发行重庆市首单公租房商 业地产抵押贷款支持票据。展望后市，经历了多年周期性低谷之后，商业地产凭借长久期、低波动和现 金流稳定等 ...

Office Market - The Grade A office market in Beijing shows significant structural optimization, with a net absorption rate of 80%[1] - The vacancy rate has increased, with a reported decline of 5.1% in rental prices year-to-date[3] - Demand from TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors remains strong, contributing to a 10% increase in consulting services[3] Retail Property Market - Retail properties are experiencing a rental adjustment, with a year-to-date decline of 2.6% in rental prices[3] - The average rental price in secondary commercial areas has decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating pressure on older projects[10] - New retail projects are expected to add approximately 100,000 square meters of space in the coming year[10] Logistics and Warehousing Market - The logistics market has seen a 2.5% increase in rental prices quarter-on-quarter, with a year-to-date increase of 8.7%[14] - Demand for logistics space is shifting towards more cost-effective options, with a noted 5.3% decline in traditional logistics rental rates[14] Investment Market - Small-scale and "bottom-fishing" investments dominate the property investment market, with a transaction volume of 4.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025[24] - New buyers are emerging in the Beijing investment market, with a focus on high-quality assets and a 5.03% increase in investment confidence[25]

北京，2025年10月30日——享誉全球的房地产服务及咨询顾问公司戴德梁行根据"十五五"规划纲要作出 专业解读，并发布《"十五五"规划——重塑未来五年中国房地产市场格局》报告。作为"两个一百年"奋 斗目标历史交汇期的关键规划，"十五五"规划（2026-2030 年）不仅是衔接"十四五"、奠定2035年现代 化建设基础的核心蓝图，更将通过五大核心主线，重塑未来五年中国商业地产市场的发展格局。 自1953年以来，中国已连续实施十四个五年规划，形成"短期-中期-长期"层层递进的目标传导机制。"十 五五"规划立足全面建成小康社会的历史节点，聚焦向第二个百年奋斗目标迈进的首程任务，针对"十四 五"期间面临的国内高质量发展转型压力、全球地缘政治动荡与产业链重构等挑战，以"双循环"新发展 格局为核心战略，明确了现代化产业体系建设、科技自立自强、国内市场培育、高水平对外开放等重点 方向，为商业地产行业提供了清晰的发展指引。 新质生产力激活写字楼和产业地产需求 "十五五"规划将现代化产业体系建设提升至首位，涵盖传统行业优化、新兴产业壮大与未来产业布局三 大维度。新能源汽车、生物医药等战略性新兴产业已在政策扶持下实现规模化增长， ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai investment market showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, driven by significant transactions in benchmark commercial projects, with a total of 17 asset transactions amounting to 14.97 billion yuan, a 78.1% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The hotel market in Shanghai continued to perform well, supported by the ongoing recovery of the inbound tourism sector, with a notable increase in international visitor arrivals [2] Investment Market Overview - In Q3 2025, the average transaction amount for single projects was 881 million yuan, significantly higher than the average of 560 million yuan in 2024 and 420 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - Office assets regained dominance in the investment market, accounting for 75% of transaction value and 53% of transaction volume, with one benchmark office project setting a new record for single transaction value in nearly two years [1][2] - The report indicates that 47% of transactions were above 500 million yuan, highlighting a strong interest in high-value assets [1] Demand and Regional Insights - Investment demand constituted 91% of the market, indicating strong confidence among high-net-worth investors and various corporate buyers in the long-term appreciation potential of Shanghai's large assets [2] - Projects within the inner ring contributed 86% of the total transaction value and 81% of the transaction volume, reflecting a return to core areas [2] Future Outlook - The investment market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend in Q4 2025, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policy efforts, increased foreign investment interest, and the release of scarce core assets [2] - The hotel sector is also anticipated to benefit from the continued recovery of the tourism market, with several new hotel openings in Q3 2025 contributing to the positive performance [2]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen retail property market is experiencing a dual activation of supply and demand, with significant new project entries and strong absorption rates [1][2] Supply Overview - In Q3, two new projects were launched, adding a total supply of 225,000 square meters, bringing the total market stock to over 8 million square meters, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.9% [1] - By the end of the year, total retail property stock is expected to reach 8.188 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [2] Demand Dynamics - The market's absorption performance in Q3 was notably strong, with new projects opening at high pre-leasing rates and existing projects maintaining stable occupancy rates [1] - The net absorption for the quarter was recorded at double the average level of the past five years, leading to a slight improvement in vacancy rates, which decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8% [1] Brand Landscape - The "richness" of the Shenzhen retail market emerged as a key highlight, with significant brand renewals in benchmark projects and the introduction of new high-quality projects featuring brands like Zegna, APPLE, and Staple [1] - This diversification enhances consumer choices and further elevates the brand variety in the Shenzhen retail market [1] Rental Trends - Despite the overall stable performance in tenant occupancy, the rental index for retail properties remained flat quarter-on-quarter and decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the average rent recorded at RMB 524.7 per square meter per month [1] Future Outlook - The supply pace in the Shenzhen retail property market is expected to slow down in Q4, with only one new project anticipated to enter the market [2] - The local owners and commercial operation teams are expected to become more responsive to changing consumer preferences, accelerating the pace of brand renewal and solidifying Shenzhen's leading position in retail brand diversification in South China [2]

Core Insights - The Beijing property investment market in Q3 2025 recorded 11 major transactions totaling approximately 3.434 billion yuan, reflecting a 41% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 75% decline year-on-year, indicating a cautious market trend [1] - "Bottom-fishing" investment demand has been concentrated, particularly favoring small to medium-sized, income-generating assets, with emerging enterprises becoming key players in the market [2][3] Transaction Characteristics - The focus remains on retail properties, long-term rental apartments, and industrial parks, with a notable transaction being the acquisition of the Kangqiao Daxing Life Science Park by the Kangqiao Life Science Infrastructure Core Fund, which has a total scale of 925 million yuan [2] - Office properties accounted for 38% of the total transaction value in Q3, highlighting a significant interest in business parks [2] - The majority of transactions were small-scale, with many being judicial sales, indicating a trend towards opportunistic buying [3] Buyer Composition - Corporate buyers represented 73% of the transactions, with a strong demand for scarce quality assets, including self-use office purchases by educational and domestic enterprises [4][5] - Institutional investors are still actively seeking investment opportunities, focusing on the operational capabilities and cash flow performance of assets, with a notable example being an insurance company acquiring a life science park [6] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by domestic capital dominance, with a focus on specific niche sectors, as institutional investors prioritize asset stability and operational capability [7] - The emergence of corporate buyers seeking long-term asset allocation has contributed to the market's activity, contrasting with traditional short-term investment approaches [7] Seller Composition - Real estate companies accounted for 69% of the total transaction value, driven by developers' need for cash flow, with significant transactions involving the transfer of stakes in ongoing projects [8] - The rapid clearance of properties by developers is seen as a positive signal for market confidence, suggesting a potential recovery in the real estate sector [8]

Group 1: Office Market Performance - In Q3 2025, Shanghai's Grade A office net absorption reached 190,400 square meters, driven by cost-driven relocations and upgrades, with some industries showing expansion demand [1] - The overall vacancy rate for office buildings in Shanghai decreased by 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with the central business district (CBD) vacancy rate dropping by 0.6 percentage points and non-CBD areas by 0.5 percentage points [1][2] - The total net absorption for the first three quarters of 2025 surpassed the entire previous year's level, reaching 270,000 square meters [1] Group 2: Rental Trends and Demand - Rental rates for office buildings continued to decline in Q3 2025, maintaining a favorable environment for tenants, influenced by the ongoing influx of new projects [2] - The demand for retail properties remained active, with net absorption in the city reaching approximately 105,500 square meters despite no new supply in Q3 2025 [3][4] Group 3: Retail Market Insights - The core shopping districts in Shanghai saw a vacancy rate decrease of 0.8 percentage points in Q3 2025, driven by brands' demand for flagship and concept stores [4] - Retail leasing activity increased significantly in tourist-heavy areas like Nanjing East Road and Xintiandi, with notable improvements in net absorption [4] Group 4: Investment Market Dynamics - The investment market in Shanghai showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with office transactions regaining dominance and investor interest in stable cash flows driving transactions [6][7] - A significant transaction involving the Shanghai Bohua Plaza project was completed at a price of approximately 10.8 billion yuan, marking a record for single transactions in two years and boosting confidence in core city assets [7] - Investment demand accounted for 91% of the market, indicating a strong focus on capital allocation, with high-net-worth investors and various corporate buyers actively participating [7]

Core Viewpoint - Sunshine Real Estate Fund (00435) reported a property portfolio occupancy rate of 89.2% as of September 30, 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 1: Occupancy Rates - The occupancy rates for office and retail properties were 89.7% and 88.2%, respectively [1] - The occupancy rate for the Daxin Financial Center was maintained at 90.6% with a current rent of HKD 36.1 per square foot [1] - The occupancy rate for Strand 50 in Sheung Wan improved to 85.5%, while the occupancy rate for Yunsan Building decreased to 80.2% due to transitional vacancies from tenant relocations [1] - In Kowloon, the occupancy rate for Fengyi Center rose to 96.4%, indicating its popularity as a beauty service hub [1] Group 2: Rental Rates - The overall current rent for the property portfolio is HKD 43.0 per square foot, with a 9.0% negative growth in renewal rents during the review quarter [1] - The retail property Upstream Center Shopping Mall achieved an occupancy rate of 87.8% with a current rent of HKD 104.1 per square foot [1] - The occupancy rate for New Town Plaza Phase 1 remained unchanged at 87.1%, with a current rent of HKD 53.2 per square foot [1]

Core Insights - The report by JLL indicates that the demand for improvement housing in Beijing's real estate market is expected to further increase [1][2] - The office market in Beijing continues to show weak incremental demand, maintaining a tenant-friendly environment [1] - The investment market is still dominated by domestic buyers, focusing on retail properties, long-term rental apartments, and industrial parks [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The high-end residential market is experiencing a boost in sentiment due to favorable policies, with improvement demand becoming the market's main driver [1][2] - The office market is entering a new normal, with the breaking down of regional rent barriers enhancing cross-regional liquidity [1] - After a supply peak in Q2, the luxury apartment market in Beijing has stabilized in Q3, with new launches maintaining a good sales pace [1] Group 2: Pricing and Supply - The threshold for purchasing high-quality housing continues to decrease, leading to an increase in improvement demand [2] - The second-hand high-end residential market has seen a rise in listings, with prices generally adjusting downward [2] - Developers are launching discount promotions to accelerate sales during this policy window [2]

Core Insights - The Beijing office market is entering a new normal by Q3 2025, with a breaking down of rental barriers between regions enhancing cross-regional liquidity [1] - Despite overall market pressure, the investment market continues to focus on retail properties, long-term rental apartments, and industrial parks, with retail showing highlights in IP and emotional consumption [1][2] - The overall rental decline trend in Beijing is expected to continue at least until 2027, with a slight decrease in vacancy rates for Grade A office buildings [1] Group 1: Office Market Trends - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings in Beijing slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 15.5% in Q3 [1] - The rental prices in the market continue to decline, with no new supply entering the market since the beginning of 2025, leading to a focus on retaining existing tenants [1] - The decision-making cycle for companies regarding relocation has been extended due to high renovation costs and narrowing price differences between renewing and new leases [1] Group 2: Retail Market Developments - Despite challenges, the retail real estate market has new growth highlights, such as the continued popularity of IP and emotional consumption, and the rise of the first-store economy [2] - Outdoor sports brands have become a significant driver in the fashion sector, accounting for 18% of the new store area in Q3 [2] - Domestic buyers remain the dominant force in the investment market, focusing on the safety of asset cash flows and long-term capital value, particularly in retail properties, long-term rental apartments, and industrial parks [2]