2025年 上海房地产 市场回顾 CBRE 科技与金融推动办公楼去化 户外运动与韩国潮牌积极拓展 仓储物流需求创新高 2025年上海经济运行平稳,三大先导产业快速增长,外贸和 消费持续回暖。办公楼TMT引领新增需求,全年净吸纳量同 比增长显韧性。零售市场户外运动和韩国潮牌表现活跃,礼品 文创和玩具品类成为持续增长的亮点。仓储物流全年净吸纳创 历史新高,空置率同比下降。商务园区办公楼新增供应集中释 放,科技与消费品行业推动市场去化近半。投资市场交易活跃 度稳步修复,机构投资者领跑市场。 CBRE世邦魏理仕中国区研究部资深董事 陆燕 2025年，上海办公楼市场共录得11个新项目交付，总体量达到79.2万平方米。在持续高供应与市场压 力的背景下，新项目整体平均预租率不足10%，导致全市空置率同比上升1.2个百分点至23.3%。尽管 需求复苏速度缓慢，但呈现逐季递增的趋势。下半年，随着企业搬迁和扩租活动的明显增多，全年净吸 纳量累计达到约39万平方米，同比增长76.6%。 从行业需求结构来看，TMT行业今年超越金融业位居首位，占比达20%。游戏、电商及人工智能企业 成为其主要增量来源，如字节跳动在五角场的新租成为年度 ...

2026大中华区 房地产市场展望 大中华区研究部 2025年12月 戴德梁行丨2026年大中华区房地产市场展望 0 目录 P2 摘要 P3 介绍 P4 宏观趋势 P5 热点话题和另类资产 P6 写字楼市场 P7 零售物业市场 P8 工业物流市场 P9 大宗交易市场 P10 城市市场 P24 要点总结 1 摘要 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 宏观趋势 2026年仍将是经济结构转型的调整之年，扩大内需、提振消费 将成为拉动来年经济增长的主要动力。 热点话题和另类资产 由人工智能驱动的数据中心将持续受到投资者关注 。市场剧烈 竞争环境下，资产管理在提升资产价值中愈发展现其重要性。 写字楼 新质生产力的发展将带动 TMT行业需求在 2026年显著增长 ， 配套设施已成为业主的核心差异化优势。 零售物业 中国零售品牌在竞争中强势崛起 ，并从"规模扩张"转向"价 值创造"。消费市场正在从满足物质需求转化为提供体验感和 情感共鸣。 工业物流 2026年，物流与制造设施整合将持续强化大中华区供应链韧性 及竞争力。全球产业链的重塑为工厂空间搬迁创造投资机遇。 大宗交易 公募REITs范围进一步扩大至写字楼及酒店将推动投资 ...

龙记集团(00255)发布公告，与截至2024年12月31日止年度的净亏损1400万港元相比，预期本集团取得 截至2025年12月31日止年度的净亏损不少于2100万港元。净亏损增加主要因为在艰难的市场环境下集团 销售收入有所减少;截至2025年12月31日止年度，因香港零售物业市场租金下调所导致投资物业公平值 的减少1020万港元(2024年：550万港元)。 ...

博富临置业(00225)发布截至2025年9月30日止年度业绩，该集团取得收入1.74亿港元，同比增加3.82%; 公司拥有人应占亏损2.16亿港元，同比减少63.88%;每股亏损1.96港元，拟派发末期股息每股32港仙。 于2025年财政年度，受该等市场动态影响，本集团的租金表现仍有所恢复。本集团办公、零售及住宅物 业的入住率及租金收入全年保持稳定，选择性续租及新租赁出现复苏迹象。展望2026年，本集团将对短 期波动保持警惕，并继续优先维持稳健的入住率。本集团亦将审慎地优化其金融投资策略，以提高集团 收入。总之，本集团对香港及中国内地的经济复苏前景持谨慎乐观态度，并将随时准备抓住可持续发展 的机遇。 ...

交银国际研究 行业剖析 2025 年 12 月 3 日 房地产行业 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博搜寻 NH BCM 或 登录研究部网站 https://research.bocomgroup.com 2026 年展望：在新平衡中拥抱拐点与复苏 中国内地房地产："十五五"开局之年，寻找新均衡。展望2026年，我们 预计行业在政策大力托举下探索新的发展模式，整体虽仍或面临一定挑 战，但"好房子"和"好城市"带来的结构性机会已显现。我们预计 2026 年全国商品房销售面积将为 9.0 - 9.5 亿平方米区间（对比 2024 年的约 9.7 亿平方米）同时，由于销售面积和全国平均房价的结构性调整（部分被高 端项目入市对冲），我们预计全国商品房销售金额预计将在约 10 - 11 万亿 元人民币，其中包括约 8 - 9 万亿元人民币商品住宅销售。投资建议：我们 对中国内地房地产的偏好排序为：估值不高的国企/国企背景开发商>拥有 一/二线城市土地储备的民企龙头>其他民企开发商。 | | 行业与大盘一年趋势图 | | | | --- | --- ...

Property Market Overview - Hong Kong's private residential prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year in October and 1.8% year-to-date, indicating a moderate recovery in residential prices and transaction volume [1] - The new project Spring Garden in Wan Chai achieved a sales rate of 97%, attracting both mainland Chinese and overseas investors [1] Rental Market Insights - Demand for 1 to 2-bedroom units remains strong, particularly from mainland Chinese professionals, with rental activities concentrated on units priced below HKD 60,000, while rentals between HKD 200,000 and HKD 400,000 have also seen an increase [1] - The leasing demand from expatriates in the financial sector and corporations is also recovering [1] Office Space Trends - Grade A office buildings on Hong Kong Island show strong resilience, recovering faster than traditional office spaces, which are under pressure due to oversupply and tenant preferences for quality over quantity [1] - Demand for small office spaces and co-working spaces has increased, driven by the IPO needs of mainland Chinese companies and startups [1] Kowloon District Activity - In November, transaction volume in Kowloon increased, primarily driven by small and medium-sized enterprises relocating to units under 3,000 square feet, with most transactions below HKD 20 per square foot [1] - Owners of subdivided properties are considering evicting tenants to seize investment opportunities as the market shows signs of bottoming out [1] Retail Market Performance - From January to September, Hong Kong's total retail sales reached HKD 276.5 billion, with a narrowed decline of 1% [2] - Retail sales have been recovering since April, ending a 14-month streak of negative growth, with luxury goods sales increasing by 6.2% from May to September [2] - Core retail areas are experiencing active leasing, with new retailers entering the market [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Outperform" [1][13] Core Insights - The recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market is expected to be a gradual process, with different asset sub-sectors recovering at different rates. The residential sector is anticipated to lead the recovery, followed by quality retail assets and core office spaces [1][8] - Key catalysts for the market recovery include improvements in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant policy easing, and a return of fundamental demand drivers such as demographic trends [5][21] - The report highlights that the residential sector is poised for a rebound, with rental levels expected to rise by approximately 3-5% in 2025, and property prices projected to increase by 3-5% in 2025, 5% in 2026, and 5% in 2027 [5][12] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting the right sub-sector in the Hong Kong real estate market, indicating that the recovery will not be a single event but a phased process targeting different segments [8][20] - The report identifies Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Link REIT (823 HK) as preferred investment targets, expecting both to benefit from the sector's recovery and multiple catalysts in the next 1-2 years [1][13] Market Trends and Drivers - The report notes that the Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a turning point, with several important catalysts indicating that the market is at or near a reversal point [5][20] - The residential sector is expected to see a significant rebound driven by sustained population inflow, which will continue to support housing demand, particularly in the rental market [5][21] - Retail properties are also on a recovery path, supported by stabilizing local consumer sentiment and an increase in inbound tourists, although the growth rate is expected to be more moderate compared to residential properties [5][12] Valuation Overview - The report discusses the potential for asset net value (NAV) expansion and valuation multiple expansion as key drivers for stock price appreciation in the real estate sector [12][11] - The anticipated recovery in rental income and asset prices will directly impact companies' NAV estimates, providing a solid foundation for stock price increases [12][11] Company-Specific Insights - Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) is highlighted as a key beneficiary of the residential recovery, with expectations of improved sales performance and profit margins due to high absorption rates and rising average selling prices [14][15] - Link REIT (823 HK) is positioned as a defensive, high-yield investment choice, expected to benefit from potential interest rate cuts and inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which could attract new capital inflows [16][17]

Core Insights - The commercial real estate sector in major Chinese cities is experiencing a resurgence in investment interest, particularly from state-owned and insurance capital buyers, as they actively acquire core properties in Shanghai [1] - The high inventory levels in the commercial real estate market are identified as a root cause of the industry's "involution," but a turning point is anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - Urban renewal is becoming a central focus for future urban development, shifting from quantity expansion to quality enhancement in commercial real estate [3] Investment Trends - Investment in commercial real estate is being driven by the stability and cash flow characteristics of long-term assets, with a notable increase in demand for core properties in first-tier cities [1] - The supply of new office space is expected to decline significantly, with new construction in 2024 projected to be only one-fourth of the peak levels seen in 2019 [2] - The high-standard warehouse market is showing resilience, with net absorption in the first three quarters of 2025 increasing by 62% year-on-year, reaching a historical high of 7.2 million square meters [2] Urban Renewal and Policy Changes - The upcoming five years are critical for urban renewal, with a projected increase in the office space aged 30 years or more in first-tier cities from 1.14 million square meters to over 10 million square meters by 2030 [3] - Policies are evolving to support the renewal of existing properties, including innovative mechanisms for extending land use rights and addressing the renewal of commercial and industrial land [4] - The expansion of public REITs is facilitating exit channels for existing assets, with expectations that office buildings and hotels will be included in the REITs framework during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5]

Office Market - The Grade A office market in Beijing shows significant structural optimization, with a net absorption rate of 80%[1] - The vacancy rate has increased, with a reported decline of 5.1% in rental prices year-to-date[3] - Demand from TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors remains strong, contributing to a 10% increase in consulting services[3] Retail Property Market - Retail properties are experiencing a rental adjustment, with a year-to-date decline of 2.6% in rental prices[3] - The average rental price in secondary commercial areas has decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating pressure on older projects[10] - New retail projects are expected to add approximately 100,000 square meters of space in the coming year[10] Logistics and Warehousing Market - The logistics market has seen a 2.5% increase in rental prices quarter-on-quarter, with a year-to-date increase of 8.7%[14] - Demand for logistics space is shifting towards more cost-effective options, with a noted 5.3% decline in traditional logistics rental rates[14] Investment Market - Small-scale and "bottom-fishing" investments dominate the property investment market, with a transaction volume of 4.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025[24] - New buyers are emerging in the Beijing investment market, with a focus on high-quality assets and a 5.03% increase in investment confidence[25]

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) aims to reshape China's commercial real estate market through five core themes, addressing challenges such as high-quality development and global geopolitical shifts [1] - The plan emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, focusing on traditional industry optimization, emerging industry growth, and future industry layout [2] - The real estate sector is transitioning from a national economic pillar to a core of livelihood security, with a shift from "having a house" to "living well" [8] Group 1: Economic and Industrial Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes modern industrial system construction, which includes the growth of strategic emerging industries like new energy vehicles and biomedicine, with the latter expected to see significant growth in authorized transactions [2] - China's production of new energy vehicles is projected to reach 12.8 million units in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 72% [2] - The number of industrial robots installed in China has surpassed that of all other regions combined, with 276,300 units installed in 2023, making China the global leader [2] Group 2: Consumer and Retail Market Dynamics - The plan promotes a consumption-driven economy, shifting focus from material investment to human capital and social welfare, with policies aimed at stimulating consumer potential [4] - Consumer-focused REITs have gained traction, with existing products showing significant growth, indicating a robust market for retail properties [4] - The market is expected to see continued expansion of consumer REITs, driving retail properties to innovate and enhance consumer engagement [4] Group 3: Global Investment and Asset Appeal - China's commitment to high-level openness is enhancing the attractiveness of its assets, particularly in the context of global protectionism [5] - Panda bonds have seen cumulative issuance exceeding 1 trillion yuan, highlighting their appeal in the international market [5] - The expectation of increased foreign capital inflow into China's commercial real estate market is anticipated, particularly for quality assets like retail properties and logistics [5] Group 4: Real Estate Market Transformation - The real estate market is moving towards high-quality development, with a focus on improving living conditions and increasing the supply of affordable housing [8] - The proportion of real estate investment in GDP has decreased from nearly 15% in 2014 to 7.4% in 2024, indicating a reduced reliance on the sector [8] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes green transformation, aiming for significant growth in the green industry and the establishment of zero-carbon parks [8] Group 5: Future Outlook for Commercial Real Estate - The upcoming five years are seen as a golden window for commercial real estate, driven by industrial expansion, consumer demand, and international capital interest [10] - The transition towards a demand-driven economy and the emphasis on sustainability are expected to reshape the value standards in commercial real estate [10] - The sector is poised for a new cycle of restructuring and potential release, guided by policy support and market dynamics [10]