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申银万国期货早间策略-20250425
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 03:30
Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market shows increasing resilience. Future focus should be on China's policies to boost the domestic economy. It is recommended to take a cautious long - position approach in operations. The impact of tariffs on the market has decreased, but the outcome of the Sino - US tariff dispute remains uncertain [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Futures**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different periods increased, with the increase ranging from 1.60 to 6.00. The trading volume of IF next month was 48,747.00, the highest among IF contracts. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for the IF far - season contract which increased by 149.00 [1]. - **IH Futures**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different periods all increased, with an increase of about 8.00 - 8.80. The trading volume of IH next month was 24,156.00. The open interest of some contracts decreased, while the current - month and far - season contracts increased [1]. - **IC Futures**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different periods decreased, with a decrease of about 15.80 - 18.80. The trading volume of IC next month was 39,686.00. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for the far - season contract which increased by 385.00 [1]. - **IM Futures**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different periods decreased significantly, with a decrease of about 52.20 - 55.60. The trading volume of IM next month was 135,094.00. The open interest of some contracts decreased, while the far - season and next - season contracts increased [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased compared to the previous values [1]. 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.07%, the SSE 50 index increased by 0.25%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.52%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 1.07%. Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed different trends, with industries such as energy rising and industries such as telecommunications business falling [1]. 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different futures contracts relative to the corresponding spot indexes changed compared to the previous two - day values [1]. 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.58%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by 0.42%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.68% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.74%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.49%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.03%, and the DAX index increased by 0.47% [1]. 5. Macroeconomic Information - The 2025 version of the Market Access Negative List reduced the number of items from 117 in the 2022 version to 106, further relaxing market access restrictions. New business forms such as unmanned aerial vehicle operations and new - type tobacco products were included in the negative list [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified that there were no ongoing Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [2]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized promoting cross - border trade facilitation [2]. - The central bank governor stated China's stance on opening - up, free trade, and maintaining global economic and financial stability [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce said China will continue to expand high - level opening - up and support foreign - invested enterprises [2]. 6. Industry Information - Seven ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation plan for the digital and intelligent transformation of the pharmaceutical industry from 2025 - 2030 [2]. - In the first quarter, the cumulative telecom business revenue was 446.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and the telecom business volume increased by 7.7% at constant prices of the previous year [2]. - China is willing to resolve Sino - EU electric vehicle trade frictions through dialogue [2]. - In the first quarter, China's freight volume increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and transportation fixed - asset investment reached 675.2 billion yuan [2]. - Shanghai issued measures to cultivate the commercial space advanced manufacturing cluster, aiming for an industrial scale of 100 billion yuan by 2027 [2]. 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes rose. In the previous trading session, the stock indexes were divided, with the beauty care sector leading the gain and the computer sector leading the decline. The total trading volume was 1.14 trillion yuan. The financing balance on April 23 increased by 2.026 billion yuan to 1.799789 trillion yuan [2].