商品市场预期全面走强
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中信建投期货:1月21日能化早报
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-21 01:25
Group 1: Natural Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - As of January 18, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber is 584,900 tons, an increase of 1,670 tons or 2.94% from the previous period [5] - The global market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels as the Northern Hemisphere enters the low production season [5] - Demand for rubber products is expected to grow moderately by 2026, but growth may be limited due to global trade barriers [5] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6% [6] - The overall supply of PX is expected to remain ample due to weak maintenance plans for the first quarter [6] - The demand side is under pressure due to numerous maintenance plans for downstream PTA devices in the first quarter [6] - The PX market is expected to shift to a loose supply-demand pattern in the first quarter [6] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 76.3%, which is below the historical average for this time of year [8] - New order sentiment is weak, and the operating rate of terminal factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is continuously declining [8] - PTA futures rose over 2% due to market optimism towards chemical stocks, but the sustainability of this strength is under scrutiny [8] - The PTA export volume in December 2025 was approximately 362,000 tons, an increase of 0.9% month-on-month and 40.3% year-on-year [10] Group 4: EG Market - The domestic ethylene glycol industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.4%, with the synthetic gas load increasing by 1.6 percentage points to 80.2% [11] - Despite high shipping costs and potential import reductions due to Middle Eastern maintenance, domestic supply remains ample [11] - Weak new order performance and declining operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are expected to lead to inventory accumulation in January [11] Group 5: PF Market - The load of direct-spun polyester short fibers remained stable at 99.1%, supported by low inventory levels [13] - Demand is expected to weaken as downstream yarn enterprises accelerate cash recovery and become cautious in procurement [13] - The operating rate of polyester yarn is expected to decline, further suppressing demand for short fibers [13] Group 6: PR Market - The bottle-grade polyester industry load decreased by 6.4 percentage points to 68.4%, with ongoing supply contraction expected [16] - The current beverage consumption season is traditionally weak, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [16] - The PR market is expected to follow raw material prices, with short-term strategies favoring PR over PF [16] Group 7: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, while spot prices remained stable [41] - Recent production increases have led to supply pressure, with soda ash production rising by 22,000 tons to 775,000 tons [41] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, and the overall market sentiment is weak [41] Group 8: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a significant decline, while spot prices remained stable [43] - The latest glass inventory decreased by 125,000 tons to 2.651 million tons, but year-on-year figures show an increase of 20.9% [43] - The short-term glass market is expected to experience weak price fluctuations due to seasonal demand [43]