Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The Middle - East conflict has brought a risk premium to commodities and increased freight rates. However, due to the heavy selling pressure of the Brazilian soybean harvest, the price of soybean F08 is under pressure. Under the global large - supply situation, the upside of the soybean meal futures price is limited in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the release of Brazilian selling pressure, Sino - US trade dynamics, and domestic reserve releases. With the high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal at domestic oil mills and sufficient downstream备货, the buying interest is weak, and the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to be under pressure [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Data on Basis and Spread - On March 5, the basis of the soybean meal main - contract in Dalian was 317, down 14; in Tianjin, it was 257, down 14; in日照, it was 197, down 34. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main - contract) in Zhangjiagang was 197, down 34, and so on for different locations. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 125, up 80. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 548, and the futures spread (main - contract) was 525 [4] 3.2 International Data and Related Indicators - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 6.8733. The E - type soybean CNF premium (in cents per bushel) was 158.00. The chart shows the 2025 soybean CNF premium trend and the 2025 imported soybean futures gross margin [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - The data shows the inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports (in ten thousand tons) and the inventory of soybeans at major domestic oil mills (in ten thousand tons) from 2021 to 2026. Also, the inventory of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills (in ten thousand tons) and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises are presented [5][8] 3.4开机 and压榨情况 - The data shows the operating rate (%) of major domestic oil mills, the soybean crushing volume (in ten thousand tons) of major domestic oil mills, and the downstream goods receipt volume (in ten thousand tons) from 2019 to 2026 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Amidst the risk premium of commodities due to the Middle - East conflict and rising freight rates, the F08 price of soybeans is under pressure from the selling pressure of Brazil's bumper harvest. With the global large - scale supply suppressing, the upside of the soybean meal futures is limited in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the release of Brazil's selling pressure, Sino - US trade dynamics, and domestic reserve release. In China, with high inventories of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills and sufficient downstream stockpiling, the buying interest is weak, and the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to be under pressure [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on March 4th: in Dalian it was 331 with a decrease of 13; in Tianjin it was 271 with a decrease of 13; in Rizhao it was 231 with a decrease of 13; in Zhangjiagang it was 231 with a decrease of 13; in Dongguan it was 211 with a decrease of 13; in Zhanjiang it was 231 with a decrease of 13; in Fangcheng it was 251 with a decrease of 13. For rapeseed meal spot basis, in Guangdong it was 45 with an increase of 16, and NE - d was - 115 with an increase of 5, RM5 - 9 was - 53 with an increase of 6 [3] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 639 with a decrease of 23, and the futures spread of the main contract was 526 [4] 3.3 International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8741. The CNF premium of soybeans in 2025 and the import soybean futures gross profit are presented in the form of a chart, including data of different months in Brazil [4] 3.4 Inventory Data - The inventory data of soybeans in Chinese ports, soybeans in major domestic oil mills, soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises, and soybean meal inventory in major domestic oil mills are presented in the form of a chart from 2020 - 2026 [4][5] 3.5开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The operation rate and soybean pressing volume of major domestic oil mills from 2020 - 2026 are presented in the form of a chart, as well as the downstream purchase volume and trading volume from 2017 - 2026 [5]

Group 1 - The article re-evaluates commodities as an asset class, highlighting their unique price returns and potential supply-demand changes as foundational to the global economy [1][2] - Commodities are characterized by their non-homogeneity and low correlation among different markets, with specific exceptions among commodities involved in the same production process [2][3] - Historical trends show that commodity prices have only moderately increased from 1970 to 2019, contradicting the belief that prices will inevitably rise over time due to limited natural resources [3][4] Group 2 - Commodities have three components of returns: spot price changes, roll yield, and collateral yield, with spot prices reflecting current supply-demand conditions [5][6] - The role of commodities in portfolios includes inflation protection and diversification, with historical evidence supporting their effectiveness against unexpected inflation [8][10] - The correlation between inflation rates and commodity returns is positive, indicating that higher inflation leads to higher average returns for commodities [11][13] Group 3 - Diversification benefits from commodities arise from their low correlation with traditional asset classes, potentially reducing overall portfolio volatility [15][17] - The performance of commodity-inclusive portfolios has varied over time, with lower volatility not necessarily compensating for lower returns compared to traditional portfolios [18][19] - The internal correlation among commodities increased during the 2008 financial crisis but has since returned to historical lows, suggesting potential for diversification benefits [19][20] Group 4 - The article discusses alternative methods for constructing commodity beta, emphasizing the need for diversified approaches to capture low correlations among commodities [23][24] - Commodities can serve as a foundation for expressing specific investment themes, allowing investors to capitalize on unique geopolitical or economic factors [28][30] - Tactical trading strategies using commodities can be based on fundamental changes in supply-demand dynamics, making them suitable for short-term investment objectives [30][31] Group 5 - The concept of risk premium in commodities suggests that investors can achieve repeatable returns by selling insurance to other market participants [32][34] - The article encourages a re-examination of commodity allocations in diversified portfolios, advocating for tactical approaches and factor-based investment strategies [34][35]