编者按 丙午马年，资本市场是否会迎来奔腾之势？面对利率下行、存款"搬家"的宏观背景，以及A股震荡、商 品波动的复杂局面，投资者如何布局？"策马点金"栏目邀请友山基金首席投资官金焰、上海旭诺资产管 理有限公司投资经理户涛、上海大墉资产管理有限公司创始人兼基金经理鲍瑞海，从宏观配置、衍生工 具、实物资产等不同维度，为投资者奉上马年财富管理的专业参考。 周期股与商品期货的"双重表达" 在利率持续走低的背景下，居民存款向资本市场转移已成为确定性趋势。 金焰介绍，2025年非银机构存款余额显著增加6.4万亿元，银行理财产品规模突破33万亿元，较2024年 年末增加3.3万亿元，其中97%以上为固收类产品。"在利率下行的背景下，单纯的固收类资产难以满足 投资者的收益需求，增配权益类资产来提升整体回报已成为必然选择。预计'固收+'策略将凭借稳健与 增强收益的特性，成为广大投资者资产配置的主流选择。"他说。 他进一步表示，"固收"部分以中短久期、高等级信用债为主，获取稳健票息收益，并充当"安全 垫"；"+"部分则通过可转债、ETF、精选个股以及CTA策略等工具实现收益增强。配置比例需严格依据 资金风险收益目标动态校准，控制在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pursuit of the "perfect" investment portfolio, emphasizing that while investors seek high returns with low risk, such opportunities are nearly impossible to find in reality. The focus is on understanding risk management and the evolution of modern portfolio theory to achieve better investment outcomes [5][6][7]. Group 1: Investment Portfolio Theory - The concept of diversification is central to building a "perfect" investment portfolio, which should adapt to both personal circumstances and market changes [7][8]. - The article highlights that the definition of a "perfect" portfolio varies among individuals, and simpler, low-cost strategies are often more sustainable for average investors [8][12]. - The historical context of portfolio diversification is illustrated through the story of the "Trente Demoiselles de Genève," showcasing early awareness of diversification's value [9][10]. Group 2: Key Figures in Investment Theory - The article introduces ten influential economic thinkers who have shaped modern investment theory, emphasizing their contributions to understanding risk and return balance [12][21]. - Harry Markowitz is recognized for developing the mean-variance optimization theory and the concept of the efficient frontier, which revolutionized portfolio construction by focusing on asset correlation rather than individual stock selection [15][16]. - William Sharpe's introduction of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the beta coefficient provided a framework for understanding systematic risk, complementing Markowitz's theories [17][18]. Group 3: Behavioral Finance and Market Dynamics - The article discusses the integration of behavioral finance into traditional investment theories, with Andrew Lo's Adaptive Market Hypothesis offering a new perspective on market efficiency and investor behavior [20][21]. - The effective market hypothesis, proposed by Eugene Fama, is acknowledged as a foundational concept that has influenced passive investment strategies and the understanding of market dynamics [19][21]. - The article emphasizes the importance of simplicity in investment strategies, advocating for low-cost, diversified portfolios accessible to all investors, as exemplified by Jack Bogle's contributions [22][24].

郁嘉言表示，近年来，全球投资者对中国股票的投资兴趣持续增长，投资主体也从以往的传统新兴市场 基金，扩展至全球纯多头基金和对冲基金。这一变化的背后主要有三大驱动因素：首先，市场对中国企 业不断提升的竞争力和创新潜力给予更多认可，同时中国股票整体估值具有相对优势；其次，外部环境 趋于缓和，市场风险溢价相应下降；第三，中国国内政策与资本市场发展、企业盈利水平以及经济结构 转型之间的协同性持续增强，增强了投资环境的吸引力。 本报讯(记者毛艺融)威灵顿投资管理宏观策略师郁嘉言日前发布对中国股票市场的最新观点。 "当前全球主要发达市场的估值普遍处于历史高位，后续上行空间相对有限。"郁嘉言提到，在此背景 下，中国市场的强劲表现日益受到重视。忽略中国配置的投资组合或将面临显著的业绩落后风险，还将 错失这一重要的分散化投资标的。中国股市受全球多数宏观因素的影响相对较小，能够为全球核心持仓 提供有效的对冲支撑。 同时，中国企业正在不断扩大海外布局，在全球市场扩展业务，甚至在汽车制造、工业机械、新能源装 备等领域挑战海外行业领先企业。对全球投资者而言，忽略中国市场的发展动向，很可能错失重塑其持 仓企业所属行业格局的颠覆性趋势，付出 ...

Core Insights - John Bogle, known as the "father of index funds," revolutionized investing with the launch of the first index fund in 1975, emphasizing the importance of long-term investment strategies over short-term market trends [1][2] - Bogle's investment philosophy is built on four core pillars: cost efficiency, mean reversion, diversification, and long-termism, which collectively guide investors towards better decision-making [2][3][4] Cost Efficiency - Bogle's formula "Return = Market Return - Cost" highlights that costs are one of the few certain variables in investing, with active fund management typically exceeding 1% in fees compared to much lower fees for index funds [2] Mean Reversion - The mean reversion principle suggests that past high-performing funds often do not sustain their success, urging investors to reconsider their tendency to chase "star managers" [3] Diversification - Bogle advocates for diversification as a scientific investment principle, recommending broad-based index funds to achieve true diversification across sectors and asset classes, which can lower portfolio volatility and enhance investment experience [4] Long-Termism - Bogle emphasizes the importance of long-term investment, likening it to planting a tree, where patience and a focus on long-term growth are essential despite short-term market fluctuations [4] Investment Discipline - Bogle's insights into investor behavior reveal that emotional biases often lead to poor decision-making, advocating for systematic investment disciplines such as dollar-cost averaging and setting clear profit-taking standards [6] Legacy and Philosophy - Beyond investment strategies, Bogle's philosophy encompasses a broader life perspective, emphasizing the importance of creating value and serving others, as demonstrated by his philanthropic efforts in education [6][7]

记者丨施诗 编辑丨李依农 视频丨蔡于恬 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 出品丨21财经客户端 21世纪经济报道 编辑丨金珊 多个经济大省确定2026年GDP增长目标 中央一号文件，首提常态化精准帮扶 SFC 21君荐读 2 悦 读 · 智能 权 威 . r7 o 扫码点击下载 近期，国际金价在高位震荡。在1月下旬创下历史新高后，国际金价持续下跌，一度跌超 12%，最低触及4682美元/盎司。不过，2月4日，国际金价重新站上5000美元/盎司。 在达利欧看来，更重要的问题并不是"现在该不该买黄金"，而是"在整体资产中，黄金应该占 多大比例"。 他建议，无论是个人投资者，还是央行和主权基金，应该从更长周期的角度出发，重新审视 资产配置的结构。合理的做法是先确定一个适合自身的配置比例，并根据行情进行再平衡： 涨得过多时适当减持，跌得过多时适度增持，从而始终把配置比例维持在一个相对稳定的区 间。 达利欧强调，黄金是一种非常有效的分散化工具。当困难时期到来时，黄金往往表现相对更 好；而在经济繁荣、风险偏好上升的阶段，它的表现则通常不如风险资产突出。正是这种与 其他资产不同步的特性 ...

Group 1 - The macro environment for next year may continue with fiscal policies such as trade-in programs and consumer subsidies, while overseas liquidity is expected to be supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Concerns about whether AI has entered a bubble phase are prevalent, with significant adjustments in the US stock market and worries about cash flow and debt issues among cloud companies [1] - However, compared to the internet bubble in 2000, the cash flow, profitability, and profit margins of leading overseas cloud companies are healthier, with capital expenditure growth expected to reach 30% to 40% next year [1] Group 2 - Some growth sectors' earnings expectations for next year are already priced in, while high dividend and high cash flow assets have lagged behind, making them attractive for investment [2] - The recommendation is to diversify investments, especially for sectors with high floating profits, to achieve a better investment experience during potential market fluctuations [2] Group 3 - The direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is relatively clear, which may lead to a more accommodative overseas liquidity environment, benefiting technology growth sectors [3] - Domestic monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential for further rate cuts, which would favor high dividend and high cash flow assets [3] - Historical data shows a negative correlation between high dividend assets and domestic bond yields, suggesting that a decline in bond yields could enhance the attractiveness of high dividend assets in the A-share market [3] Group 4 - High dividend and high cash flow assets are becoming the core of investment allocation, with specific ETFs like cash flow ETF (159399) and dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) offering distinct advantages [4] - The current market is undergoing valuation adjustments, and long-term funds are encouraged to accumulate positions at lower prices, with a balanced allocation being more suitable for the market outlook in 2026 [4]

Core Insights - China's capital market has significantly opened up, with approximately 90% to 95% of the foreign investment access goals achieved, indicating a mature and complete foreign institutional access mechanism [1] - The focus should now be on improving risk management tools, expanding interconnectivity targets, and enhancing capital utilization efficiency to further increase the international appeal of the Chinese market [1] - The provision of predictable macro policies and robust growth fundamentals of listed companies are crucial for attracting long-term international investors [1] Group 1: International Investor Trends - International investors are increasingly active in China, with a notable rise in trading-type investors contributing significantly to market liquidity since September of the previous year [1] - In contrast, allocation-type investors are extending their research efforts and closely monitoring developments in Chinese listed companies, policies, and technological innovations [1] - As of November 7, 2023, foreign institutions have conducted 8,406 research sessions involving 770 A-share companies, focusing on sectors such as telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and robotics [2] Group 2: Investment Preferences and Growth Sectors - International investors show a preference for large-cap blue-chip stocks with good liquidity and attractive valuations, while also focusing on high-growth sectors like technology, AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [4] - The attractiveness of growth sector companies is often linked to specific events and timing, with recent developments enhancing international recognition of China's technological innovation capabilities [4] - Companies with strong fundamentals, favorable industry policies, and global competitiveness are more appealing to overseas investors, who prioritize long-term strategies over short-term performance [4] Group 3: Globalization and Future Outlook - As Chinese companies expand internationally, sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are gaining increased attention from international investors [5] - Companies must focus on continuous product or model innovation to maintain competitiveness in overseas markets, emphasizing the importance of talent acquisition and local partnerships [5] - The attractiveness of Chinese assets to international investors is expected to rise further by 2026, despite potential market volatility in late 2025, with expectations of sector rotation enhancing overall asset valuations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Davos Global FOF Summit is set to take place in Davos, Switzerland, from January 19 to January 23, 2026, and aims to facilitate multilateral dialogue among global fund of funds (FOF) industry leaders [2][16][17]. Group 1: Summit Details - The summit will host over 100 prominent figures from global funds of funds, investment institutions, and leading venture capital cities to discuss navigating economic cycles and exploring future development directions for the global fund industry [16][17]. - Scott Voss, Managing Director of HarbourVest, has confirmed his attendance and will deliver a speech at the summit [3][4]. Group 2: Previous Engagements - Scott Voss previously emphasized the importance of diversified investing at the Second Sino-US FOF Summit in August 2018, advocating for diversification across various perspectives including strategy, vintage, region, asset type, and management scale [6][7]. Group 3: HarbourVest Overview - HarbourVest, founded in 1982 in Boston, manages over $147.9 billion (approximately RMB 1,035.3 billion) in assets and operates across primary funds, secondary transactions, infrastructure, real assets, and private credit [12][13]. Group 4: Anticipated Outcomes - The summit will feature the release of the "2025 World's Best FOF Investment Institutions List," compiled by the Global FOF Association based on recommendations and evaluations from investment associations across Europe, the US, and the Middle East [18][19]. - Previous summits have seen Chinese GPs raise over $1 billion, highlighting the significance of the event for private equity investment in China [20][21]. Group 5: Networking Opportunities - The summit provides a unique opportunity for participants to engage with leading global LPs, discussing investment logic and strategies, particularly in the context of RMB and USD funds [20][21]. - Attendees will also partake in various activities, including visits to the Swiss National Innovation Park and UBS headquarters, enhancing networking and collaboration prospects [25][26].

Group 1 - Bridgewater China emphasizes the value of gold as a diversification asset despite its significant price increase, driven by persistent inflation concerns, high government debt, and escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - Investors have not yet made substantial adjustments to their gold allocations, indicating a potential for further investment in gold as a hedge against currency risk [1] - The price movements of gold reflect a growing trend among global central banks and investors to use gold as a safeguard against currency devaluation and significant capital loss due to regional conflicts [1] Group 2 - As of September 5, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index rose by 3.62%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Western Gold (up 9.70%) and Zijin Mining (up 5.85%) [3] - The Gold Stock ETF Fund saw a 48.70% increase in net value over the past six months, ranking in the top 1.56% among comparable funds [4] - The Gold Stock ETF Fund has demonstrated strong performance metrics, including a maximum monthly return of 16.59% and a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [4] Group 3 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, with the top ten stocks accounting for 66.52% of the index [5] - The top weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, with Zijin Mining holding a weight of 10.84% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Bridgewater China emphasizes that despite the significant rise in gold prices, it still holds allocation value and can provide diversification benefits for investment portfolios [1] Group 1: Investment Perspective - Investors have not yet made substantial adjustments to their gold allocations, indicating a potential for increased interest in gold as a hedge against currency risks [1] - The long-term structural factors enhancing gold's attractiveness are unlikely to diminish in the short term [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price movement of gold reflects a growing trend among global central banks and other investors to use gold as a hedge against monetary risks [1] - There appears to be a considerable amount of capital willing to purchase gold at current prices, even when facing the opportunity cost of zero "interest yield" [1]