巴克莱研究团队发表研究报告指，鉴于美联储独立性风险已有所下降，且人工智能资本支出可能构成结 构性利好因素，上调对美元的展望。大宗商品方面，巴克莱认为，与能源、电力及电气基础设施、冷却 与热管理系统、半导体及硬体投入、数据中心建筑材料相关的大宗商品，有望在这轮AI投资周期中受 惠。 巴克莱指，美国多家上市公司和私营企业都宣布了未来三到五年内巨额的AI相关资本支出计划，总额 可能远超美国GDP的10%水平。对比较早前德国基础设施支出计划引起的重视，其投资规模仅为此轮美 国AI资本支出的五分之一，且投资年期更长，可见市场对AI投资的反应出乎意料地平淡。 云技术的发展应用是一个持续多年的过程，企业通过向云服务供应商支付费用提升资讯科技效率。整体 而言，云技术应用导致不同行业和国家的盈余持续向美国科技巨头转移，而在国际层面，美国和中国均 是云技术投资的赢家。 另一方面，全球服务过去主要令高学历劳动力增长较快的国家受惠，但这种增长模式料将受到生成式 AI投资热潮的挑战。因此，服务业在出口结构中占比重大的国家将面临更大压力，尤其是资讯科技、 会计、顾问以及各类后勤支援服务行业，风险尤为突出。 该行表示，科技进步的速度，取决 ...

各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，专盯中长线投资的老江湖了。今天一早打开行情软件，大宗商品市场挺有意思——油价跌得不少，黄金 稳稳当当，伦铜悄悄回升，这三块料凑一起，看着乱其实有章法，咱们今天就聊点实在的，从短期波动里挖中长线的门道。 先说说最受关注的油价，昨天跌了2.1%，是一周来最大跌幅，WTI收在59美元上方，不少朋友可能慌了：这是要开启下跌通道了？其实不用急，咱们先 看为啥跌。一方面是美国那边出了库存数据，汽油和馏分油库存一个多月来第一次增加，供应端看着宽松了；另一方面更关键，俄乌冲突有了新动静， 泽连斯基去土耳其重启谈判，还有消息说美俄在研究结束冲突的新计划，虽然克里姆林宫否认了，但市场对地缘风险的担忧确实降温了。要知道这轮油 价波动，地缘冲突一直是重要推手，现在风险缓和，资金自然会先兑现利润。 但帮主得说句实在的，做中长线投资，不能盯着单条消息追涨杀跌。我跑财经口20年，见证过好几次地缘事件引发的油价波动，最后都会回归供需基本 面。现在美国对俄罗斯石油生产商的制裁还在，全球能源格局的重构也没结束，短期库存增加和地缘降温带来的下跌，更像是趋势中的回调，不是反 转。对中长线投资者来说，不用怕 ...

展望后市，东方证券表示，在全球货币宽松周期、资源战略地位提升及新旧产业转型共振下，有色 金属进入供需紧平衡驱动的新周期，走势相对独立。中信建投认为，2026年有色牛市有望再进阶。此 外，中信证券指出，预计供给紧张将望推动铜钴等商品价格继续上行，锂价则受益于储能需求超预期有 望上涨。黄金等贵金属整体看涨思路并未改变，电解铝等年内滞涨品种或将在四季度获得更高关注度。 预计在流动性宽松以及各国加强关键资源获取力度的背景下，大宗商品的投资热度有望延续。 不同的金属，景气度、节奏与驱动点不一致，分化在所难免，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头 ETF（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业，相较投资 单一金属行业，能够分散风险，适合作为投资组合的一部分进行配置。 11月19日，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）强势反攻，场内价格盘中一度涨逾 2%，该ETF近3日连续吸金合计1.96亿元，反映大资金看好板块后市，积极进场抢筹。据民生证券统 计，2025年第三季度，公募基金对有色金属板块的持仓比例升至5.69%，环比上季度增加1.43%，达到 2021年以来新高 ...

其实这波大宗商品的分化走势，我一点都不意外。想起我当年跑能源口的时候，跟着老记者去采访油企，就发现一个规律：原油这东西，从来离不开地 缘政治的"风吹草动"。这次原油上涨，核心就是欧盟对俄罗斯的制裁预期收紧了，欧盟最高外交官都放了狠话，说俄罗斯的攻击该算恐怖主义，加上美国 对俄石油巨头的制裁马上要生效，亚洲不少买家都暂停采购了，柴油供应又趋紧，价格自然往上走。而且我注意到，WTI原油还稳守在60美元之上，有资 深交易员都说，只要不出现股市全面崩盘，这关口不容易跌破，一旦有新的制裁消息，还可能继续往上冲。 再说说伦铜这些工业金属，为啥会跌？核心还是美联储的降息预期变了。之前大家都觉得12月降息稳了，现在预期减弱，加上这周要出美国就业报告， 投资者都在等数据，不敢轻易动手。工业金属这东西，跟经济需求直接挂钩，大家担心降息慢了会影响需求，自然就开始抛售，哪怕之前有供应担忧撑 着，也扛不住这种情绪性抛售。我当年跑工业口的时候，见过好几次金属价格跟着美联储政策摇摆，这种"政策等数据，市场等方向"的阶段，波动本来就 大。 各位朋友，最近大宗商品市场是不是有点让人摸不着头脑？原油悄悄往上走，伦铜却悄悄往下滑，连金价都跟着走高 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the energy sector, particularly focusing on renewable energy and gas power plants, while highlighting the vulnerabilities in Europe's energy supply chain [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The global electricity demand is accelerating, with a projected annual growth rate of approximately 2.6% in the U.S. by the end of this decade, driven by air conditioning, data centers, industry, and electric vehicles [1][2]. - Europe relies heavily on imports for its energy needs, with nearly 50% of its energy structure dependent on imports, particularly LNG from the U.S. and Qatar, and rare earth resources from China [1][4]. - The nuclear energy sector, while significant in the EU's energy mix at about 10%, faces supply chain risks due to the concentration of uranium supply and processing [5]. - The aging electricity grid in Europe poses a major bottleneck for meeting new electricity demands, necessitating modernization and increased green investments [6][8]. - The development of AI data centers is significantly driving energy demand, with challenges in grid expansion and a growing interest in storage solutions like fuel cells [9][10]. Summary by Sections Energy Demand and Supply - Global electricity demand grew by 4.3% last year, outpacing GDP growth, with data centers' electricity demand rising to about 2% in the EU and 6% in the U.S. [2]. - The importance of electricity supply security has increased due to the high energy consumption of AI technologies and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [3][14]. Renewable Energy and Investment Opportunities - RWE, a German utility company, is highlighted for its strong earnings potential, with 70% of its business in renewable energy and a projected annual earnings growth rate of 15% from 2025 to 2030 [16][17]. - The report emphasizes the need for significant capital investment in electrification, estimating a requirement of nearly $3 trillion to modernize infrastructure and support renewable energy [8]. Challenges in Energy Supply - Europe's dependency on LNG imports could rise to 70-80% if Russian LNG is banned, highlighting vulnerabilities in energy security [4]. - The concentration of rare earth resources in China poses additional risks, with Europe seeking to reduce this dependency through legislative measures [4]. Nuclear Energy and Supply Chain Risks - The nuclear fuel cycle's high concentration in supply sources raises concerns about potential disruptions, particularly with significant reliance on imports from Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia [5]. Infrastructure and Modernization Needs - The aging electrical grid requires modernization to accommodate new demands from electric vehicles and data centers, with a projected need for a 70% increase in green investments over the next five years [6][8]. Emerging Technologies and Companies - Companies like Prysmian are positioned to benefit from the growth in data centers, providing essential low-voltage cables for the sector [18]. - Sirius XM is noted for its solid oxide fuel cell technology, which has potential in the green hydrogen market, highlighting investment opportunities in emerging technologies [20][21].

今日（11月13日）有色金属板块掀涨停潮，兴业银锡、雅化集团、国城矿业、华锡有色、永兴材料、中 矿资源、盛新锂能7股涨停，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内涨幅盘中上探 4.79%，现涨4.46%，站稳全部均线，实时成交额超6500万元，交投火热！ 从长期收益来看，截至10月底，有色金属板块年内累计上涨75.9%，板块涨幅高居31个申万一级行业断 层第一，大幅跑赢通信（61.88%）、电子（48.1%）、电力设备（45.12%）等行业。 | 涨幅排序 申万一级行业 | 区间涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | | TE 有色金属(申万) | 75.90% | | 2 通信(申万) | 61.88% | | 3 电子(申万) | 48.10% | | 数据统计区间:2025.1.1-2025.10.31. | ... | 【有色金属板块为什么这么强？】 1、业绩端，2025年三季报显示，有色龙头ETF60只成份股中，56家上市公司实现盈利，44家归母净利 同比正增长，其中，楚江新材归母净利同比暴增20倍，国城矿业等10家上市公司实现归母净利三位数大 增，紫金矿业归母净利同比增长55%，业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that non-ferrous metal stocks have strengthened, with notable increases in Tianqi Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, and others, indicating a positive market trend for the sector [1] - Mining and non-ferrous related ETFs have risen approximately 4%, reflecting the overall bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - Analysts forecast that copper and cobalt prices will continue to rise due to supply tightness, while lithium prices are expected to benefit from unexpected increases in energy storage demand [2] Group 2 - Specific ETFs such as the Mining ETF and Non-Ferrous Metal ETFs have shown significant price increases, with the Mining ETF rising by 4.14% and the Non-Ferrous Metal ETF by 3.95% [2] - The overall investment enthusiasm for non-ferrous metals and other bulk commodities is likely to persist due to loose liquidity and countries strengthening their resource acquisition efforts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing active trading, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) showing resilience in the market, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) saw an intraday increase of 1.34% and is currently up by 0.56%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Huayu Mining (over 8%) and China Aluminum (over 5%) [1]. - Since its inception, the index tracked by the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF has increased by 181.27%, outperforming other indices like the Non-Ferrous Metal Index (164.89%) and the Industrial Non-Ferrous Index (156.47%) [2][3]. Group 2: Growth Potential - The index associated with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF is expected to show strong and sustained growth, with a projected year-on-year net profit increase of 54.5% in 2025, leading among similar indices [3]. - For 2026, the index is anticipated to maintain a leading position with a forecasted growth rate of 21.0%, indicating robust mid-term growth potential [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The next two years are projected to be critical for China's electrolytic aluminum production, with a forecasted output of approximately 4,420 million tons by 2025, nearing capacity limits [5]. - The domestic aluminum market is currently in a "fragile balance," with supply and demand remaining stable; however, any increase in demand or supply disruptions could lead to shortages [6]. Group 4: Commodity Outlook - Citic Securities anticipates that supply constraints will drive prices of copper, cobalt, and other commodities higher, while lithium prices may benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [8]. - The investment interest in commodities is expected to continue, supported by liquidity easing and increased efforts by countries to secure key resources [8]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide a diversified investment approach across various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in commodity prices, including oil and gold, is primarily driven by the expectation of the U.S. government reopening after a prolonged shutdown, which has boosted market sentiment [3][4]. Commodity Analysis Gold - The significant rise in gold prices is attributed not only to market sentiment but also to the potential for increased liquidity from the Federal Reserve following the government reopening. This could lead to renewed expectations for interest rate cuts in December, supported by historical trends during similar fiscal conditions [3][4]. Oil - Despite the recent increase in oil prices, concerns about oversupply remain unresolved. The ongoing production increases from OPEC+ and the U.S. are critical factors that will influence oil price stability. Upcoming reports from OPEC and IEA, along with inventory data, will be key indicators for future price movements [4]. Base Metals (Copper and Aluminum) - The rise in base metal prices is influenced by market sentiment and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies. However, the long-term price movements will depend on the strength of global economic recovery and actual demand from downstream industries, rather than solely on policy expectations [4]. Investment Strategy - The current market conditions suggest that investors should focus on the underlying fundamentals rather than following short-term trends. Key areas to monitor include the potential for interest rate cuts and fiscal data for gold, OPEC+ actions and inventory changes for oil, and the recovery pace of downstream industries for base metals [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876), which experienced a market pullback but has shown signs of an upward trend in recent days [1][6] - The ETF's component stocks showed mixed performance, with notable gains from Huaxi Nonferrous, Yongxing Materials, and Hunan Gold, while companies like Western Superconducting and China Rare Earth faced declines [1][6] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could positively impact non-ferrous metal prices [3] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, supply tightness is expected to drive prices of copper and cobalt higher, while lithium prices may benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [3] - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, which includes a diversified portfolio of metals such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, helping to mitigate investment risks [6] - As of October 30, the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) had a total scale of 523 million yuan, making it the largest among three similar products [6]