8月3日，据彭博社援引皮埃尔·安杜兰致投资者的一封最新信函报道，截至6月底，其旗舰基金"安杜兰大宗商品全权委 托增强型基金"，年内亏损已高达57%。 安杜兰在信中坦承"近期的表现非常令人失望"，并确认已削减旗下所有基金的可可多头敞口。 这一表现与2024年的辉煌业绩形成了鲜明反差。当时，安杜兰通过对可可价格上涨的大举押注取得了50%的年度回 报。然而，随着可可价格从超过每吨12000美元的高位回落至8000美元附近，加上一系列失误的交易和市场剧烈波 动，此前的盈利被悉数吞噬。 值得一提的是，安杜兰的名字，在过去近十年内，几乎是原油交易成功的代名词。然而，从2024年3月起，他将目光 投向了一个全新的领域：可可。 据彭博社报道，安杜兰当时判断，西非地区恶劣的天气和作物病害将严重冲击全球可可供应链，从而引爆一场史诗级 的行情。 他的团队在2024年3月建立了大量可可多头头寸，并在年底收获颇丰——可可的押注，帮助其旗舰基金在2024年实现 了高达50%的惊人回报。 "原油之王"遭遇滑铁卢。 据最新消息，全球著名的原油交易员皮埃尔·安杜兰（Pierre Andurand）在可可市场的大举做多遭遇了惨烈的失败，截 至6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the coal market, particularly focusing on coking coal, driven by supply-side policies and market dynamics, highlighting the potential for price increases and the risks associated with a lack of downstream demand support [3][12][33]. Policy Analysis - The National Energy Administration's investigation into coal overproduction has intensified market speculation, leading to a surge in coking coal prices [6][14]. - The central government's stance against industry "involution" and its push for reasonable price increases and optimized capacity have shifted market expectations, alleviating fears of deflation in bulk commodities [12][13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of coordinated policies for stabilizing growth and reducing capacity in key sectors has further fueled price increase expectations [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Most major coal-producing provinces are operating below their announced production capacities, with only Xinjiang slightly exceeding its planned capacity due to abundant resources [9][10]. - The recent surge in coking coal prices is not supported by a corresponding increase in downstream demand, particularly in the coking and steel sectors, indicating a structural disconnect in the market [18][23]. Market Behavior - The coking coal market is experiencing a feedback loop where rising prices are leading to increased speculative trading, while the stock market has not reflected the same bullish sentiment, indicating a potential disconnect between commodity and equity valuations [21][33]. - The article warns of the risks associated with speculative bubbles in the coking coal market, as the underlying fundamentals may not support sustained price increases [33][34]. Strategic Considerations - The government's plan to establish a coal reserve system aims to stabilize prices and prevent excessive volatility, with a target of 300 million tons of adjustable capacity by 2030 [24][25]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of new overproduction policies on supply dynamics, suggesting that the current market environment requires a cautious approach to investment in coal-related assets [35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the analysis is that oil has provided a mere 0.5% annual real return over the past 150 years, significantly lagging behind U.S. stocks at 6.58% and U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds at 1.84% [1][4] - The main issue facing commodity investments, particularly oil, is the lack of cash flow returns, compounded by technological advancements that suppress price increases [3][4] - The analysis indicates that oil's long-term investment disadvantages stem from its inability to generate cash flow, unlike stocks and bonds, and that technological progress and substitution effects keep oil prices aligned with historical trends [4][5] Group 2 - Despite limited long-term investment value, oil prices can experience extreme short-term volatility, with significant fluctuations observed from 2008 to 2020, surpassing the stability seen from the late 1940s to 1973 [5] - Historical turning points, such as the 1973 oil crisis, have drastically altered pricing mechanisms, leading to substantial price increases and economic impacts on multiple countries [5] - The research suggests that for ordinary investors, the optimal strategy in the oil market is to capitalize on short-term volatility rather than holding for the long term, as current oil prices are near historical averages, limiting potential for significant increases [5]

Group 1 - The article re-evaluates commodities as an asset class, highlighting their unique price returns and potential supply-demand changes as foundational to the global economy [1][2] - Commodities are characterized by their non-homogeneity and low correlation among different markets, with specific exceptions among commodities involved in the same production process [2][3] - Historical trends show that commodity prices have only moderately increased from 1970 to 2019, contradicting the belief that prices will inevitably rise over time due to limited natural resources [3][4] Group 2 - Commodities have three components of returns: spot price changes, roll yield, and collateral yield, with spot prices reflecting current supply-demand conditions [5][6] - The role of commodities in portfolios includes inflation protection and diversification, with historical evidence supporting their effectiveness against unexpected inflation [8][10] - The correlation between inflation rates and commodity returns is positive, indicating that higher inflation leads to higher average returns for commodities [11][13] Group 3 - Diversification benefits from commodities arise from their low correlation with traditional asset classes, potentially reducing overall portfolio volatility [15][17] - The performance of commodity-inclusive portfolios has varied over time, with lower volatility not necessarily compensating for lower returns compared to traditional portfolios [18][19] - The internal correlation among commodities increased during the 2008 financial crisis but has since returned to historical lows, suggesting potential for diversification benefits [19][20] Group 4 - The article discusses alternative methods for constructing commodity beta, emphasizing the need for diversified approaches to capture low correlations among commodities [23][24] - Commodities can serve as a foundation for expressing specific investment themes, allowing investors to capitalize on unique geopolitical or economic factors [28][30] - Tactical trading strategies using commodities can be based on fundamental changes in supply-demand dynamics, making them suitable for short-term investment objectives [30][31] Group 5 - The concept of risk premium in commodities suggests that investors can achieve repeatable returns by selling insurance to other market participants [32][34] - The article encourages a re-examination of commodity allocations in diversified portfolios, advocating for tactical approaches and factor-based investment strategies [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple commodity-themed LOFs have issued risk premium alerts, indicating significant premium risks in secondary market trading prices, with over 20 alerts issued in April alone [1][6]. Group 1: Risk Alerts and Market Reactions - On April 17, E Fund issued a premium risk alert for its gold-themed LOF, noting a premium rate exceeding 40% based on a net asset value of 1.293 CNY and a market price of 1.823 CNY [2]. - E Fund's crude oil LOF also reported a premium rate over 35%, with a net asset value of 1.1063 CNY and a market price of 1.496 CNY [2]. - Following the resumption of trading on April 17, both E Fund's gold and crude oil LOFs saw significant increases, rising over 6% and 7% respectively [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Guidance - Industry experts highlight that the rising demand for commodities like gold and crude oil is driven by inflationary pressures, which has led to increased prices and demand for related LOFs [8]. - A fund manager noted that the trading prices of LOFs are heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, warning that high premiums could lead to price corrections if not addressed promptly [8]. - Investors are advised to adhere to suitability guidelines and avoid unfamiliar products to mitigate potential losses from high premium purchases [5][8]. Group 3: Economic Factors and Future Outlook - The current economic landscape presents conflicting factors for commodities, including potential global economic recession due to U.S. tariff policies, which could reduce demand [8]. - However, trade protectionism and increased tariffs may exacerbate inflation risks, potentially elevating long-term commodity price levels [8]. - Experts suggest that while recent adjustments in commodity prices reflect pessimistic economic expectations, they may not fully account for future inflation risks, indicating potential investment opportunities beyond gold [9].