Group 1 - The oil market is experiencing a significant surge, with WTI crude oil rising 2.5% to surpass $64 per barrel, driven by geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions [3] - Copper prices have also seen a notable increase, with London copper rising 3.6% to reach $10,336 per ton, influenced by supply interruptions at Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia [3] - In contrast, gold prices have declined by 1.11% to $3,722 per ounce, primarily due to a strengthening dollar and reduced demand for safe-haven assets following strong U.S. new home sales data [3] Group 2 - The current market dynamics reflect two main themes: geopolitical risks driving up prices of strategic resources like oil, and the long-term demand for green metals like copper supported by the energy transition [3] - For medium to long-term investors, it is suggested to focus on commodities with solid fundamental support, such as copper, which is essential for electric vehicles and grid construction [3] - Investors are advised to consider indirect participation through stocks or funds related to these sectors to mitigate the high risks associated with direct futures trading [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "2025 China Cotton and Yarn Industry Investment Summit" in Urumqi, Xinjiang, highlighting the region's strategic importance in the cotton industry and its role in connecting local production to global markets [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The summit will take place on October 31, 2025, in Urumqi, which is recognized as a national-level trading center for cotton and yarn [1]. - The event aims to discuss investment opportunities in the cotton industry, driven by smart agriculture and the Belt and Road Initiative [1]. Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes a series of keynote speeches and roundtable discussions focusing on macroeconomic outlooks, market conditions, and the challenges and opportunities facing the cotton industry [3][4]. - Key topics will cover global and Chinese cotton market trends, risk management, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the industry [4][6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The summit will explore investment opportunities arising from the restructuring of the global cotton supply chain and the implications of macroeconomic policies on commodity investments [6][7]. - Discussions will also address innovations in cotton pricing models and the effects of digital transformation on the cotton textile industry [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the monthly supply - demand report has limited impact. The market rebounds due to previous full reaction to negative factors and macro - impacts. There is support for prices, but the upside is limited. Domestic soybeans have a loose supply, good demand, and large inventory pressure, with prices expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - For sugar, internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is accumulating. Although recent Brazilian sugar production increases have a negative impact on prices, considering the low price level and the fact that negatives are mostly priced in, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestically, with high - level imports, low domestic sugar inventory, and high sales - to - production ratio, Zheng sugar is likely to have a range - bound movement with a short - term rebound [12]. - For the oilseeds and oils sector, the U.S. biodiesel market has digested some inventory, leading to a decline in the oilseeds and oils market. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory increase is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the inventory - building stage, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, both providing price support [19]. - For corn/corn starch, the U.S. corn futures are falling. Although the U.S. may lower the yield per unit, the overall production is at a new high, with limited short - term rebound space. In the domestic market, the supply is still tight, and the spot price is likely to fall, with the 01 contract expected to have limited downward space [28]. - For live pigs, the overall supply remains stable, but due to the relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices in the future [34]. - For peanuts, some peanuts are gradually coming onto the market, but the supply is limited due to weather. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the prices of related products are stable. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [39]. - For eggs, as the replenishment in each link is coming to an end, the spot price is falling. Based on the current fundamentals, egg prices are expected to face pressure in the short term [45]. - For apples, the early - maturing apple quality is poor, and the price difference between good and bad products is large. The expected low excellent - fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji may lead to a relatively high initial purchase price, but considering the current futures price, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [52]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, new cotton is gradually entering the acquisition stage. The expected increase in Xinjiang cotton production and the general acquisition enthusiasm of ginning mills will bring selling - hedging pressure. The demand improvement in the peak season is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [62]. Summary by Directory Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.07% to 1057.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.38% to $289.6 per short - ton [2]. - **Related Information**: As of September 11, the U.S. 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 923,000 tons, and 2026/2027 net sales were 2,000 tons. For soybean meal, 2024/2025 net sales were 31,000 tons, and 2025/2026 net sales were 151,000 tons. Conab expects Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to increase 3.6% to 177.67 million tons. Oil World expects the global sunflower seed production to be 58.7 million tons. As of September 12, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, with an operating rate of 66.35%. Soybean inventory was 7.332 million tons, and soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Exit the MRM05 spread widening; Options: Wait and see [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: The previous trading day, ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract fell 0.1 (- 0.62%) to 16.13 cents per pound, and London white sugar main contract fell 3.7 (- 0.81%) to $455.6 per ton [8]. - **Important Information**: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar. From January to August, the import volume was 2.6121 million tons. In the 2024/2025 sugar - making season as of August, the import volume was 4.0739 million tons. In the second half of August, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 50.061 million tons, with a sugar production of 3.872 million tons. As of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 85, and the sugar quantity was 3.2827 million tons. In August 2025, China's refined sugar production was 454,000 tons [9][10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and Zheng sugar has limited downward space; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [13][14]. Oilseeds and Oils - **External Market**: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main contract changed by - 0.68% to 51.17 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract changed by 0.11% to 4439 ringgit per ton [17]. - **Related Information**: As of September 16, about 36% of the U.S. soybean - growing area was affected by drought. Conab expects Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to increase 3.6%. The 2025 EU and UK rapeseed production is expected to be 21.6 million tons. In August 2025, China imported 340,000 tons of palm oil, 100,000 tons of soybean oil, and 140,000 tons of rapeseed oil [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider buying on dips in the short - term volatile market; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [21][22][23]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: The CBOT corn futures fell, with the December main contract down 0.4% to 424.5 cents per bushel [25]. - **Important Information**: The CBOT corn futures fell on Thursday due to seasonal harvest pressure and a stronger U.S. dollar. As of September 18, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 26.16 days. As of September 17, the corn inventory of 96 major corn - processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.34 million tons. As of September 12, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 729,000 tons. On September 19, the purchase price in the northern port was 2240 yuan per ton [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait for the U.S. December corn to correct from a high level, and buy on dips for the 01 contract; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [29][30][31]. Live Pigs - **Related Information**: Live pig prices are falling, with different price ranges in different regions. As of September 16, the prices of piglets and sows also decreased. On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.03 points, and the national average pork wholesale price fell 0.9% [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on the near - term contracts; Arbitrage: Do the LH15 reverse spread; Options: Buy long - term call options [35]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: The national average price of peanut kernels is 4.15 yuan per jin. Shandong and Henan oil mills have different purchase prices. The overall oil mill operating rate is low. The sales of peanut oil have slightly improved, and the price of peanut meal is stable. As of September 11, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 65,560 tons, and the peanut oil inventory was 36,760 tons [36][37][38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The 11 and 01 contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and try to go long on the 05 contract after a correction; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [39][40][41]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly fell, and the egg market continued to fluctuate. In August, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.365 billion. As of September 11, the weekly egg sales in the representative sales areas were 7303 tons. The average inventory in the production and circulation links decreased [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider shorting at high levels; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [46][47]. Apples - **Important Information**: As of September 10, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 209,100 tons. In July 2025, the apple export volume was 53,600 tons, and the import volume was 17,700 tons. The price of early - maturing apples varies by region, and the profit of apple storage merchants in Qixia has decreased [49][50][51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Apples are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there will be selling - hedging pressure after the new apples are on the market; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [55][56][57]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: The previous trading day, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.26 (0.39%) to 66.92 cents per pound [59]. - **Important Information**: As of September 13, the average temperature and rainfall in the U.S. cotton - growing areas decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has little change, and the cotton spot trading is cold. The sales and transaction basis of cotton are in a certain range [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zheng cotton is expected to be slightly weak, suggesting selective trading; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [63][64][65].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "2025 China Cotton and Yarn Industry Investment Summit" in Urumqi, Xinjiang, highlighting the region's strategic importance in the cotton industry and its role in connecting local production to global markets [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The summit will take place on October 31, 2025, in Urumqi, which is recognized as a national-level trading center for cotton and yarn [1]. - The event aims to discuss investment opportunities in the cotton industry, driven by smart agriculture and the Belt and Road Initiative [1]. Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes a series of keynote speeches and roundtable discussions focusing on macroeconomic outlooks, market conditions, and the development of the cotton and textile industry in Xinjiang and beyond [3][4]. - Key topics will cover global and Chinese cotton supply and demand dynamics, the impact of macroeconomic policies, and innovations in cotton pricing models [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The article mentions challenges such as the restructuring of the global cotton supply chain and the effects of U.S. tariff policies on the industry [4]. - It also highlights potential investment opportunities arising from the evolving landscape of the cotton market, including innovations in supply chain services and pricing strategies [6][7].

Fund Overview - The fund is named "Zhaoshang Zhongzheng Commodity Stock Index Securities Investment Fund (LOF)" and is managed by Zhaoshang Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - The fund operates as a contract-based open-end fund and was established on June 28, 2012, with a total fund share of 83,584,797.77 at the end of the reporting period [1][2]. - The fund aims to passively track the performance of the underlying index, the Zhongzheng Commodity Stock Index, with a tracking error not exceeding 0.35% and an annual tracking error not exceeding 4% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The fund reported a profit of CNY 5,962,991.95 for the reporting period, with a net asset value of CNY 128,906,122.86 at the end of June 2025 [3][11]. - The net asset value per fund share was CNY 1.5422, and the cumulative net value growth rate was 79.48% since inception [3][11]. - The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 4.58%, outperforming the benchmark growth rate of 2.31% [6][11]. Investment Strategy - The fund employs a passive index investment strategy, primarily investing in stocks that are part of the Zhongzheng Commodity Stock Index, with at least 90% of its stock assets allocated to these index components [1][16]. - The fund's performance benchmark is composed of 95% of the Zhongzheng Commodity Stock Index return and 5% of the after-tax interest rate of commercial bank demand deposits [1][16]. Management and Compliance - Zhaoshang Fund Management Co., Ltd. has established a comprehensive research and investment decision-making process to ensure fair investment opportunities across all portfolios [4]. - The fund management strictly adheres to relevant laws and regulations, ensuring compliance in all investment operations and protecting the interests of fund shareholders [5][10]. Market Environment - The market environment during the reporting period was characterized by active trading sentiment and ample liquidity, with structural opportunities emerging in various sectors [6][7]. - The fund's performance was influenced by fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stabilizing growth and addressing economic challenges, leading to a mixed performance across different industries [6][7].

Core Insights - Pierre Andurand, a renowned oil trader, has faced significant losses in the cocoa market, with his flagship fund down 57% year-to-date as of June 30 [2][3][4] - Cocoa futures prices have dropped over 29% this year, with a notable decline of more than 3% on August 1, reaching $8,227 per ton [5][13] - Weak global demand, particularly in Europe where cocoa bean processing fell 7.2% year-on-year in Q2, is a primary factor for the price drop [4][13] Fund Performance - Andurand's fund, "Andurand Commodity Enhanced Fund," experienced a stark contrast in performance compared to 2024, when it achieved a 50% annual return due to successful cocoa price bets [4][5] - The fund suffered substantial losses in early 2025, with a drop of approximately 17% in January and nearly 25% in February [8] - Despite acknowledging the disappointing performance, Andurand remains optimistic about future cocoa prices, maintaining a bullish stance on the market [11] Market Dynamics - The decline in cocoa prices is attributed to concerns over demand, with significant reductions in processing volumes reported in both Europe and Asia [13][14] - The high cocoa prices from the previous year have started to suppress consumer demand, particularly in the chocolate market, amid ongoing global inflation pressures [13][14] - The global chocolate market is experiencing its most severe decline in a decade, with forecasts indicating a cocoa surplus in the upcoming years [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the coal market, particularly focusing on coking coal, driven by supply-side policies and market dynamics, highlighting the potential for price increases and the risks associated with a lack of downstream demand support [3][12][33]. Policy Analysis - The National Energy Administration's investigation into coal overproduction has intensified market speculation, leading to a surge in coking coal prices [6][14]. - The central government's stance against industry "involution" and its push for reasonable price increases and optimized capacity have shifted market expectations, alleviating fears of deflation in bulk commodities [12][13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of coordinated policies for stabilizing growth and reducing capacity in key sectors has further fueled price increase expectations [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Most major coal-producing provinces are operating below their announced production capacities, with only Xinjiang slightly exceeding its planned capacity due to abundant resources [9][10]. - The recent surge in coking coal prices is not supported by a corresponding increase in downstream demand, particularly in the coking and steel sectors, indicating a structural disconnect in the market [18][23]. Market Behavior - The coking coal market is experiencing a feedback loop where rising prices are leading to increased speculative trading, while the stock market has not reflected the same bullish sentiment, indicating a potential disconnect between commodity and equity valuations [21][33]. - The article warns of the risks associated with speculative bubbles in the coking coal market, as the underlying fundamentals may not support sustained price increases [33][34]. Strategic Considerations - The government's plan to establish a coal reserve system aims to stabilize prices and prevent excessive volatility, with a target of 300 million tons of adjustable capacity by 2030 [24][25]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of new overproduction policies on supply dynamics, suggesting that the current market environment requires a cautious approach to investment in coal-related assets [35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the analysis is that oil has provided a mere 0.5% annual real return over the past 150 years, significantly lagging behind U.S. stocks at 6.58% and U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds at 1.84% [1][4] - The main issue facing commodity investments, particularly oil, is the lack of cash flow returns, compounded by technological advancements that suppress price increases [3][4] - The analysis indicates that oil's long-term investment disadvantages stem from its inability to generate cash flow, unlike stocks and bonds, and that technological progress and substitution effects keep oil prices aligned with historical trends [4][5] Group 2 - Despite limited long-term investment value, oil prices can experience extreme short-term volatility, with significant fluctuations observed from 2008 to 2020, surpassing the stability seen from the late 1940s to 1973 [5] - Historical turning points, such as the 1973 oil crisis, have drastically altered pricing mechanisms, leading to substantial price increases and economic impacts on multiple countries [5] - The research suggests that for ordinary investors, the optimal strategy in the oil market is to capitalize on short-term volatility rather than holding for the long term, as current oil prices are near historical averages, limiting potential for significant increases [5]

Group 1 - The article re-evaluates commodities as an asset class, highlighting their unique price returns and potential supply-demand changes as foundational to the global economy [1][2] - Commodities are characterized by their non-homogeneity and low correlation among different markets, with specific exceptions among commodities involved in the same production process [2][3] - Historical trends show that commodity prices have only moderately increased from 1970 to 2019, contradicting the belief that prices will inevitably rise over time due to limited natural resources [3][4] Group 2 - Commodities have three components of returns: spot price changes, roll yield, and collateral yield, with spot prices reflecting current supply-demand conditions [5][6] - The role of commodities in portfolios includes inflation protection and diversification, with historical evidence supporting their effectiveness against unexpected inflation [8][10] - The correlation between inflation rates and commodity returns is positive, indicating that higher inflation leads to higher average returns for commodities [11][13] Group 3 - Diversification benefits from commodities arise from their low correlation with traditional asset classes, potentially reducing overall portfolio volatility [15][17] - The performance of commodity-inclusive portfolios has varied over time, with lower volatility not necessarily compensating for lower returns compared to traditional portfolios [18][19] - The internal correlation among commodities increased during the 2008 financial crisis but has since returned to historical lows, suggesting potential for diversification benefits [19][20] Group 4 - The article discusses alternative methods for constructing commodity beta, emphasizing the need for diversified approaches to capture low correlations among commodities [23][24] - Commodities can serve as a foundation for expressing specific investment themes, allowing investors to capitalize on unique geopolitical or economic factors [28][30] - Tactical trading strategies using commodities can be based on fundamental changes in supply-demand dynamics, making them suitable for short-term investment objectives [30][31] Group 5 - The concept of risk premium in commodities suggests that investors can achieve repeatable returns by selling insurance to other market participants [32][34] - The article encourages a re-examination of commodity allocations in diversified portfolios, advocating for tactical approaches and factor-based investment strategies [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple commodity-themed LOFs have issued risk premium alerts, indicating significant premium risks in secondary market trading prices, with over 20 alerts issued in April alone [1][6]. Group 1: Risk Alerts and Market Reactions - On April 17, E Fund issued a premium risk alert for its gold-themed LOF, noting a premium rate exceeding 40% based on a net asset value of 1.293 CNY and a market price of 1.823 CNY [2]. - E Fund's crude oil LOF also reported a premium rate over 35%, with a net asset value of 1.1063 CNY and a market price of 1.496 CNY [2]. - Following the resumption of trading on April 17, both E Fund's gold and crude oil LOFs saw significant increases, rising over 6% and 7% respectively [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Guidance - Industry experts highlight that the rising demand for commodities like gold and crude oil is driven by inflationary pressures, which has led to increased prices and demand for related LOFs [8]. - A fund manager noted that the trading prices of LOFs are heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, warning that high premiums could lead to price corrections if not addressed promptly [8]. - Investors are advised to adhere to suitability guidelines and avoid unfamiliar products to mitigate potential losses from high premium purchases [5][8]. Group 3: Economic Factors and Future Outlook - The current economic landscape presents conflicting factors for commodities, including potential global economic recession due to U.S. tariff policies, which could reduce demand [8]. - However, trade protectionism and increased tariffs may exacerbate inflation risks, potentially elevating long-term commodity price levels [8]. - Experts suggest that while recent adjustments in commodity prices reflect pessimistic economic expectations, they may not fully account for future inflation risks, indicating potential investment opportunities beyond gold [9].