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中国核电(601985):公司信息更新报告:2024年业绩不及预期,核电核准进入常态化阶段
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 02:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance fell short of expectations due to significant income tax provisions, with a reported revenue of 77.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of 8.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.38% [4] - The report anticipates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026, with new profit projections for 2027 introduced, estimating net profits of 10.82 billion yuan (previously 12.53 billion yuan), 11.71 billion yuan (previously 13.11 billion yuan), and 12.70 billion yuan for 2025-2027 respectively [4] - The report highlights the company's strong position in the nuclear power industry and robust technical capabilities, justifying the "Buy" rating despite the challenges faced [4] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 77.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, and a net profit of 8.78 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.38% [4][7] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 42.9% and 21.4%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [4] - For 2025, the estimated revenue is projected to be 83.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, and a net profit of 10.82 billion yuan, indicating a recovery with a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [7] Industry Insights - The approval of nuclear power projects has entered a normalization phase, with the State Council approving five nuclear power projects comprising ten nuclear units, including eight units utilizing the "Hualong One" technology [5] - As of April 2025, there are 54 nuclear units approved for construction or awaiting construction in China, with 33 units based on the Hualong One technology [5] - The report anticipates a continued approval pace of 8-10 million kilowatt nuclear units annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, maintaining the trend of normalized approvals [5]