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特朗普第二任期百日临近 美股遭遇半世纪最差开局
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 15:52
Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing historic lows as the 100-day mark of President Trump's second term approaches, with the S&P 500 down nearly 8%, marking one of the worst performances for a new administration in over 50 years [1] - The S&P 500 typically averages a 3.8% increase in the first 100 days of a new presidency, but the current performance deviates significantly from this historical trend [1][2] - Market expectations were initially high for Trump's second term, anticipating continued tax cuts and deregulation, but aggressive trade policies have led to a sharp decline in market sentiment [2] Group 2 - Following the announcement of tariffs on imports, the S&P 500 experienced a significant drop of 12.1% over four trading days, marking the worst decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - A temporary rebound occurred after Trump announced a pause on tariffs, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5%, the largest single-day increase since October 2008 [3] - Historical data suggests that if the first 100 days perform below average, the likelihood of a market decline increases, with an average annual drop of 5.5% [3][4] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs on corporate earnings and economic data is expected to become more apparent in the next 100 to 200 days, indicating potential economic pressures ahead [4] - Despite the concerning performance in the first 100 days, the market remains uncertain, with investors closely monitoring policy developments and economic indicators [4]