国际金价一度突破3900美元，逐渐接近4000美元关口。今年以来，国际金价累计上涨超过47%，今年的金价表现继续领跑全球大部分主流投资品种。 最近一轮金价上涨行情，从今年8月下旬开始启动，从3400美元大幅攀升至近期高位3927美元，一个月左右的时间金价累计上涨超过15%。这一轮金价上涨 的逻辑，提前炒作美联储降息的预期，作为抵御通胀的硬通货，金价也是明显受益于美联储降息周期下的通胀回升预期。 截至今年10月1日，今年以来国际金价累计涨幅达到了47%，全球大部分投资品种都未能够跑赢金价的涨幅，包括美股、A股与港股等，只有极少数的市场 指数可以追得上金价的年内涨幅，例如创业板指、北证50、科创50等。 再从全球黄金储备量来看，最高是美国，紧随其后的是德国、意大利、法国等。按照我国黄金储备量的增长速度，即将步入全球黄金储备量的前五名位置， 从长远的角度来看，有望进入全球前三的位置。 一边是各国黄金储备量的持续增加，另一边是全球资金配置美元的意愿在下降，美元吸引力在持续降低，多项因素叠加在一起，进一步突出了黄金的战略投 资价值。 这一轮黄金牛市还可以走多远？在各项数据比较有利的前提上，黄金不会马上出现深度调整的走势 ...

Market Overview - A-shares continue to see a decrease in trading volume, with the trading volume on September 10 dropping by 140.4 billion yuan, falling below 2 trillion yuan for the first time [2] - The daily trading volume has shrunk from 3.15 trillion yuan to less than 2 trillion yuan, indicating a significant decline in market enthusiasm and a slowdown in new capital inflow [2] Technical Analysis - The end of a bull market in A-shares requires a significant breach of key technical levels, specifically the half-year line at 3477 points and the annual line at 3359 points [2] - As of September 10, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812 points, indicating that there is still a considerable distance from these critical levels, suggesting that the bull market has not yet ended [2] - A technical bear market is defined by a drop of over 20% from recent highs; the index reached a peak of 3888 points, meaning a drop to around 3110 points would be necessary to confirm a bear market [2] Internal Funding Environment - The margin trading balance remains robust, reaching a historical high, which serves as an important indicator of market sentiment [3] - The current margin trading balance of 2.3 trillion yuan accounts for only about 2.3% of the A-share market's circulating market value, indicating significant room for growth compared to the previous high of 4.7% [3] External Funding Environment - The trend of "deposit migration" is accelerating, with a strong willingness to convert current and one-year fixed deposits into stock market investments [4] - If approximately 5% of these funds flow into the stock market, it could provide substantial incremental capital [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17 is a critical factor; a new round of interest rate cuts could enhance liquidity for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] - Current market predictions suggest a high probability of a rate cut in September, which could act as a catalyst for the continuation of the bull market [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. lumber futures prices have significantly declined from their peak due to tariff policies and emerging cracks in the housing market, nearing a bear market status [1][2] - Lumber futures prices have dropped nearly 19.5% from a high of approximately $695 per thousand board feet in early August to around $560, just shy of the 20% threshold for a technical bear market [1] - The previous surge in lumber prices was driven by tariffs and optimistic sentiment regarding lower interest rates, but this enthusiasm has waned due to disappointing housing demand data and rising costs for builders [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. housing market is facing structural challenges due to high prices and interest rates, which are suppressing affordability and leading to a decline in builder confidence [2] - New home construction showed a rebound in July, but permit totals fell to a five-year low, indicating a weak future supply pipeline [2] - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) for August stands at 32, remaining in the "pessimistic zone" for 16 months [2] Group 3 - The challenges in the lumber market are compounded by the ongoing reduction in North American manufacturing capacity and rising raw material costs, leading to concerns on both supply and demand sides [3]

Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariff Policies - The "reciprocal tariff" policy in the U.S. has led to significant market volatility, with major indices experiencing declines and a total market value loss of approximately $3.1 trillion [1] - Following the announcement of the tariff policy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 3.17% and the S&P 500 by 0.76%, marking three consecutive months of decline [1] - Recent rebounds in the U.S. stock market are attributed to easing overseas pressures, positive earnings reports from major tech companies, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Corporate Earnings - Concerns remain regarding the potential transformation of market pressures from risk appetite shocks to weak economic data, particularly as the effects of tariffs may not be fully realized yet [3] - The earnings guidance from major companies during the earnings season has shown pessimistic signals, with Apple projecting a $900 million loss due to tariffs and several companies withdrawing their annual financial guidance [4][5] - The disparity in corporate performance is evident, with companies like Apple facing significant impacts from tariffs, while others like Google show resilience [5] Group 3: Impact on the Film Industry - The U.S. tariff policy is extending to the film industry, with a proposed 100% tariff on foreign-produced films, which could drastically increase production costs and reduce market revenues for major studios [8][9] - The potential for job losses in Hollywood and a decline in the industry's ecosystem is highlighted, as increased costs may drive smaller production companies out of the market [9] - The global cultural industry may experience a shift, with retaliatory tariffs from trade partners and a rise in local cultural industries filling the void left by U.S. films [10][11]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing historic lows as the 100-day mark of President Trump's second term approaches, with the S&P 500 down nearly 8%, marking one of the worst performances for a new administration in over 50 years [1] - The S&P 500 typically averages a 3.8% increase in the first 100 days of a new presidency, but the current performance deviates significantly from this historical trend [1][2] - Market expectations were initially high for Trump's second term, anticipating continued tax cuts and deregulation, but aggressive trade policies have led to a sharp decline in market sentiment [2] Group 2 - Following the announcement of tariffs on imports, the S&P 500 experienced a significant drop of 12.1% over four trading days, marking the worst decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - A temporary rebound occurred after Trump announced a pause on tariffs, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5%, the largest single-day increase since October 2008 [3] - Historical data suggests that if the first 100 days perform below average, the likelihood of a market decline increases, with an average annual drop of 5.5% [3][4] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs on corporate earnings and economic data is expected to become more apparent in the next 100 to 200 days, indicating potential economic pressures ahead [4] - Despite the concerning performance in the first 100 days, the market remains uncertain, with investors closely monitoring policy developments and economic indicators [4]

Core Viewpoint - The KOSPI index in South Korea has fallen by 20% since its peak in July, indicating a move towards a technical bear market [1] Group 1 - The decline in the KOSPI index signifies a significant downturn in the South Korean stock market [1] - A 20% drop from the July high marks a critical threshold for investors, as it typically indicates bearish market conditions [1]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 买主动基金，就是买基金经理。 不过目前市场上已经有几千位基金经理了。如果没有系统的方法论，只凭个人感觉进行挑选，会比较困难。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」为好友，给小助手发送「 主动基金 」领取哦～ ◆◆◆ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程。螺丝钉通过两门图文课程，介绍了主动基金的投资方法。 反之，从顶部下跌超过20%，则被称为技 术性熊市。 例如，2024年9月中旬市场出现大幅上 涨，A股和港股均进入技术性牛市，即从 底部上涨超过20%。 此后几个月，市场呈现横盘震荡态势。 然而，自10月国庆节后，港股震荡上扬， 目前正经历第二波行情。 A股则仍在震荡之中,且未从10月高位下 跌超过20%。 因此，按照国际惯例，自9月开始的上涨 行情中，A股和港股均进入技术性牛市, 港股更是进入第二波技术性牛市，而A股 在第一波技术性牛市后进入横盘震荡。 【 】【日】【 】 ヘリ 】【 如果问100位投资者"涨多少算牛市" 他们给出的答案可能都不一样。 有人认为涨一倍才算牛市，有人则认为涨 20%即可视为牛市。 通常在国际上，有一个惯例：从熊市底部 反弹上涨超过20%，就 ...