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瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250925
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 09:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with an increase of 0.93% at the close. The fundamentals suggest stable supply and positive demand expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis with an expanding red column. The recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position and control risks by paying attention to the trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 167,185 hands, down 8,304 hands. - The main contract open interest was 261,141 hands, up 487 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 260 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 39,749 hands/ton, up 300 hands [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 290 yuan/ton, down 1,260 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 876 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 7,285 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. - The price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly lithium carbonate output was 45,880 tons, up 1,280 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,846.92 tons, up 8,001.60 tons. - The monthly export volume was 368.91 tons, up 2.56 tons; the monthly enterprise operating rate was 46%, down 2 percentage points. - The monthly power battery output was 139,600 MWh, up 5,800 MWh [2]. Downstream and Application - The output and sales of new energy vehicles increased, with the monthly output at 1,391,000 vehicles, up 148,000 vehicles, and the monthly sales at 1,395,000 vehicles, up 133,000 vehicles. - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 45.53%, up 0.54 percentage points; the cumulative sales were 9,620,000 vehicles, up 2,583,000 vehicles. - The monthly export volume was 224,000 vehicles, down 10,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume was 1.532 million vehicles, up 714,000 vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The total call open interest was 217,754 contracts, up 5,066 contracts; the total put open interest was 104,293 contracts, down 1,074 contracts. - The total open - interest put - call ratio was 47.89%, down 1.6458 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility was 0.43%, up 0.0225 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Whensheng Technology introduced its progress in solid - state lithium battery cathode materials, lithium - rich manganese - based materials, etc. - Cui Dongshu of the Passenger Car Association was optimistic about the automotive industry during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, expecting a total output of 40 million vehicles. - Enjie Co., Ltd. announced that its pilot production line of lithium sulfide was completed and in the process of capacity ramping [2].