Summary of Conference Call on Global Electric Vehicle Market Industry Overview - The global penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is currently only 10%, with a potential increase to 30% corresponding to an additional 12 million vehicles, excluding China, the US, and Japan. This presents a significant growth opportunity for Chinese automakers, potentially increasing their market share from 40%-50% to 60%-70% [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **BYD's Export Goals**: BYD has revised its global export target for 2026 to 1.5-1.6 million vehicles, with a strong performance in Oceania, where March sales reached nearly 20,000 units, potentially surpassing Toyota. The Southeast Asian market share target has been raised to 7%-8% [1][3]. - **Geely's Expansion Plans**: Geely aims for over 150,000 vehicle exports in ASEAN and Europe by 2026, expanding its European channels from 70 to 200. The export targets for its Galaxy and Lynk & Co brands are each set at 30,000 vehicles [1][4]. - **Cost Advantages in Europe**: The cost of electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe is significantly lower than that of fuel vehicles, with costs of €5-6 per 100 km for EVs compared to €14 for fuel vehicles. This cost advantage is expected to become more pronounced with rising oil prices [1][4]. - **Profitability of BYD**: BYD's overseas profitability is strong, with an estimated profit of approximately 40,000 RMB per vehicle. The gross margin for overseas operations is expected to rise from 18% in 2025 to 24%-25% in 2026 [1][4]. Market Dynamics - **Impact of Global Oil Prices**: The recent rise in global oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions, has significantly stimulated the demand for NEVs. In Southeast Asia, the lead generation for new energy models has increased by 4-5 times, with a month-on-month growth of 40%-50%. In Oceania, particularly Australia, the lead generation has tripled, with orders growing over 50% [2][3]. - **Future Market Potential**: The global automotive market's NEV penetration is projected to grow significantly, with a potential market size of over 12 million vehicles if the penetration rate exceeds 30%. Chinese automakers are expected to play a crucial role in this growth [2][3]. Investment Potential - **Valuation Logic**: The core valuation of automotive companies is increasingly based on their overseas export business. Companies like BYD, Geely, and Leap Motor are highlighted as having strong performance and high investment potential due to their overseas operations. BYD's market cap could reach 1.5 trillion RMB if it captures over 40% of the market, while Geely could reach over 400 billion RMB with a 20%-30% market share [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and improving demand expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 158,620 yuan/ton, up 1,420 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 123,556 hands, up 6,288 hands; the position of the main contract is 212,931 hands, down 4,985 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 3,160 yuan/ton, up 2,520 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 30,111 hands/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 161,500 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 158,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,880 yuan/ton, down 2,920 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,420 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 14,675 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 5,150 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,520 tons, down 5,950 tons; the monthly import volume is 26,426.79 tons, down 431.27 tons; the monthly export volume is 596.08 tons, up 124.52 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 141,600 MWh, down 26,400 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 106,500 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate is 54,500 yuan/ton; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,750 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 202,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 182,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 198,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 45%, down 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 59,300 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 55%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 694,000 vehicles, down 347,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 765,000 vehicles, down 180,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 41.18%, up 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 1,710,000 vehicles, down 125,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 282,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 583,000 vehicles, up 301,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Zimbabwe's cabinet approved a report on economic flagship projects in the Central Province and Masvingo Province and will maintain the ban on raw ore exports to promote value - added processing, beneficiation, industrialization, and manufacturing development [2] - On March 31, 2026, the launch meeting of the National New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Traceability Information Platform was held in Tianjin. Relevant work progress and future plans for the recycling and utilization of new energy vehicle waste power batteries were introduced, and the operation points of the platform were explained [2] - On March 31, the China Actuarial Association and the China Banking and Insurance Information Technology Management Co., Ltd. released information on the claims of new energy vehicle insurance in 2025. In 2025, the insurance industry insured 43.58 million new energy vehicles, an increase of 12.48 million or 40.1% compared with the previous year; the premium income was 190 billion yuan, providing a risk protection amount of 159 trillion yuan; the underwriting loss was 5.6 billion yuan, a reduction of 100 million yuan year - on - year; the comprehensive cost rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points year - on - year [2] - The China Automobile Dealers Association's "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey" shows that in March 2026, the inventory alert index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.5%, up 2.9 percentage points year - on - year and 1.3 percentage points month - on - month, above the boom - bust line [2] 3.7 Market Analysis - The main lithium carbonate contract oscillated weakly, with a decline of 2.62% at the close. The position decreased month - on - month, the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, and the basis weakened compared with the previous day [2] - Fundamentally, on the raw material side, the operating rate of lithium salt plants increased, boosting the demand for lithium ore. However, due to tightened overseas mine exports and undetermined resumption time of domestic large mines, the expectation of future supply tightening strengthened, and lithium ore quotes remained firm. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters increased, and they adopted a strategy of holding prices and惜售, with few spot sales. In terms of imports, the increase in shipments from Chile will supplement the supply after arrival, so the domestic supply is increasing. On the demand side, downstream material factories are taking a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and there is a game between upstream and downstream around lithium prices, with a weak trading sentiment in the spot market. In terms of expectations, due to the good export demand for new energy vehicles and the subsequent intensive release of new models by car companies, the demand expectation may improve from the consumption side [2] - Technically, in the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are expanding [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that BYD aims to significantly enhance its sustainability efforts, targeting the sale of over 4.6 million electric vehicles by 2025, with more than 1 million units sold overseas, contributing to a reduction of 46.6 million tons of carbon emissions globally, equivalent to planting 780 million trees [1] - BYD's chairman Wang Chuanfu emphasizes the importance of managing carbon emissions across the entire supply chain and value chain in the automotive industry, which has a profound environmental impact [1] Group 2 - BYD has set a goal to reduce its operational carbon emission intensity by 50% by 2030 compared to 2023, with an ambition to achieve carbon neutrality across its entire value chain by 2045 [2] - In terms of social responsibility, BYD's total tax contribution in China reached 53.3 billion yuan, with donations amounting to 15.7 million yuan in 2025. The company has also initiated a 3 billion yuan education charity fund to support scholarships and promote knowledge of new energy vehicle technology, partnering with 127 universities and benefiting over 6,000 students [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, attention should be paid to potential disruptions in overseas resource supply, such as the shipping situation of lithium mines in Australia and Zimbabwe. The vehicle market in the first quarter was affected by policy - driven pre - consumption and the late Spring Festival, but it is expected to improve marginally in the second quarter. The increase in battery capacity can offset some of the negative impact on lithium salt consumption. After excluding individual project interferences, the winning bid prices in the energy storage sector have slightly increased, and price transmission is still ongoing. If overseas supply - side risk events continue to develop, it may lead to a shortage of lithium ore supply, which will push up lithium prices, reduce the actual supply of lithium carbonate, and make the inventory more invisible. In the long - term, the price center will still move up, and it is recommended to consider bottom - fishing [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - In the first quarter, the price of lithium carbonate twice reached above 180,000 yuan/ton and then declined, fluctuating around 150,000 yuan/ton. Factors affecting the price include strong macro - sentiment, mismatch between spot and futures average prices, strong downstream orders and low inventory, pre - festival stocking, concerns about supply shortages due to the suspension of lithium ore shipping in Zimbabwe, slow de - stocking, poor terminal data, and overseas supply disturbances [9][11][12]. 3.2 Inventory - In the first quarter, lithium ore and lithium salts generally showed a continuous de - stocking trend, with the overall de - stocking speed first increasing and then decreasing. By the end of March, the social inventory turnover days decreased to 27.9 days, and there was obvious restocking in the downstream [6][9][25]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - Relevant charts show the import profit of lithium carbonate, theoretical delivery profit, theoretical delivery profit of producing lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica, export profit of lithium hydroxide, and外购 production profit [28][29]. 3.4 Lithium Resources - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import of lithium concentrate was 1.074 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The cumulative export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 49,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17%, of which 39,300 tons were exported to China, a year - on - year increase of 26%, accounting for 79% of the export. The cumulative export of lithium sulfate was 39,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 221%, and almost all were exported to China. The cumulative domestic production of lithium mica was 29,000 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 4%, and the cumulative production of lithium spodumene by sample enterprises was 14,700 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 127%, with a total cumulative production of lithium ore of 43,700 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 28% [31][43][44]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of lithium carbonate was 287,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.8%. Among them, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 176,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55%; from lithium mica was 38,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%; from salt lakes was 46,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.3%; and from recycling was 28,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.9%. From January to February, the cumulative import was 53,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64% [4][9][47]. 3.6 Lithium Hydroxide - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of lithium hydroxide was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20%. Among them, the smelting production was 69,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%, and the causticizing production was 11,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 124% [9][55]. 3.7 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 75,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34% [9][58]. 3.8 Ternary Precursor - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of ternary precursor was 255,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%. The proportion of the 6 - series and 9 - series increased significantly, while the 5 - series decreased. From January to February, the export was 11,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, and the import was 200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17% [9][66]. 3.9 Ternary Material - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of ternary material was 236,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47%. The proportion of the 6 - series and 9 - series increased significantly, while the 5 - series decreased. From January to February, the cumulative export was 22,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 88%, and the import was 11,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 108% [9][68]. 3.10 Lithium Iron Phosphate - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate was 1.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 59% [9][71]. 3.11 Other Materials - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of cobalt - acid lithium was 21,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28%; the cumulative production of manganese - acid lithium was 34,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% [9][74]. 3.12 Lithium Battery - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of lithium batteries was 572 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 51%. Among them, the production of ternary batteries was 90 GWh, a year - on - year decrease of 5%; the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 455 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68%; and the production of other batteries was 27 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 114%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative installed capacity of lithium batteries was 68.3 GWh, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative export of lithium batteries was 48 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 24% [5][9][77]. 3.13 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from January to February, the retail sales of passenger cars were 1.06 million, a year - on - year decrease of 26%; the wholesale sales were 1.59 million, a year - on - year decrease of 8%; the export was 555,000, a year - on - year increase of 116%, and the penetration rate was 42%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04. In March, the expected retail sales were 900,000, and the expected penetration rate was 52.9%, and the sales of new - energy vehicles in China officially exceeded that of fuel vehicles. From January to February 2026, the average battery capacity per new - energy vehicle was 62.0 kWh, a year - on - year increase of 29.2%. In February, the overall inventory situation improved, and the battery capacity increased significantly. From January to February, the cumulative sales of new - energy heavy trucks were 23,500, a year - on - year increase of 54%; the cumulative sales of domestic new - energy heavy - truck operating licenses were 27,666, a year - on - year increase of 102%. From January to February, the average battery capacity per new - energy vehicle in China was 64.9 kWh, a year - on - year increase of 32.3%. The average battery capacities per vehicle of new - energy passenger cars, trucks, buses, and special vehicles were 54.5 kWh, 223.9 kWh, 211.3 kWh, and 156.8 kWh respectively [5][9][85]. 3.14 Terminal - Energy Storage - From January to February 2026, the tender, winning bid, and installation of energy storage were still greatly affected by the Spring Festival. However, from the perspective of the average winning bid price, the price centers of 2 - hour energy storage and 4 - hour EPC moved up. In terms of installation, it increased significantly compared with previous years, and the installed capacity was basically the same as that in November of the previous year [5][9][100]. 3.15 Supply - Demand Balance - The current balance sheet does not consider the issue of the suspension of lithium ore shipping in Zimbabwe, which may affect the lithium salt supply in late April at the earliest. If it fails to resume, the market will return to a shortage state in May. Attention should be paid to when the shipping can resume and be vigilant against the supply shock caused by the concentrated shipping back to China. There are also concerns about the lithium ore production in Australia at the end of the first quarter. If overseas supply - side risk events continue to develop, the shortage of lithium ore supply will be transmitted to the actual supply of lithium carbonate and further push up prices, and the amplification of stocking and replenishment coefficients may also make the explicit inventory more invisible [6][10][101]. 3.16 Options - Relevant charts show the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, the put - call ratio of option trading volume, and the put - call ratio of option open interest related to lithium carbonate [104][105][106].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for March 2026 is 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to the expansion zone after two months[7] - The new orders index and production index are at 51.6% and 51.4%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating strong demand recovery[13] - Small and medium-sized enterprises' PMIs have significantly improved, with small enterprises at 49.0% (up 1.5 percentage points) and medium enterprises at 49.3% (up 4.5 percentage points) from the previous month[10] Group 2: Price and Cost Pressures - The main raw material purchase price index is at 63.9%, up 9.1 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 55.4%, up 4.8 percentage points, indicating rising input costs due to geopolitical tensions[16] - The procurement volume index has risen to 50.9%, reflecting increased purchasing activity driven by demand recovery[18] - The inventory indices for raw materials and finished products are at 47.7% and 46.7%, respectively, indicating a slowdown in inventory depletion[18] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, with significant internal differentiation in the service sector[20] - The construction business activity index is at 49.3%, up 1.1 percentage points, but still indicates a low level of activity, with new orders at 43.5%[23] - Consumer services sectors such as retail and hospitality are below the critical point, suggesting a need for policy support to boost consumer confidence[20] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Rising raw material prices may squeeze profit margins for downstream enterprises, potentially suppressing future investment and production willingness[26] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a critical variable, with sustained high oil prices likely to exacerbate cost pressures in downstream industries[26] - Real estate demand needs to be stimulated, and geopolitical risks could disrupt market stability[27]

Core Insights - BYD released its 2025 financial report and ESG report on March 27, highlighting its strategies and commitments in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) areas [1] Group 1: ESG Performance - BYD's MSCI ESG rating improved to AA, and its S&P ESG score rose to 60, placing it among the top tier of Chinese companies [1] - The company aims for carbon neutrality across its entire value chain by 2045 and continues to promote its "three green dreams" [2] - In 2025, BYD's domestic tax contribution totaled 53.3 billion yuan, with charitable donations amounting to 157 million yuan [2] Group 2: Sales and Production - BYD sold 4.6 million new energy vehicles in 2025, maintaining its position as the global leader in new energy vehicle sales [2] - The cumulative shipment of BYD's energy storage systems surpassed 135 GWh, ranking first globally for annual shipments [2] - BYD's solar energy division was recognized as a Tier 1 global photovoltaic module manufacturer by Bloomberg New Energy Finance [2] Group 3: Environmental Impact - BYD's new energy vehicles achieved a carbon reduction of 46.6 million tons compared to traditional fuel vehicles, equivalent to planting approximately 776.6 million trees [2] - The company utilized 7.29 billion kWh of clean electricity through green power certificates, ranking first among Chinese automakers in green electricity consumption [2] Group 4: Research and Development - In 2025, BYD invested 63.4 billion yuan in R&D, accounting for 7.89% of its revenue, with a workforce of 120,000 dedicated to research [3] - The company has filed a total of 71,094 patents globally, emphasizing its commitment to technology and innovation [3] - BYD launched the Super e-platform and has had over 19 models achieve five-star or five-star plus ratings in domestic and international NCAP safety assessments over the past three years [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage where supply is increasing and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 157,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14,420 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 129,844 hands, a decrease of 6,862 hands; the position of the main contract is 217,916 hands, a decrease of 19,845 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 640 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,280 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,318 hands/ton, a decrease of 19,746 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 163,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 159,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 5,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 12,920 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,420 US dollars/ton, an increase of 45 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 15,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 5,225 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,520 tons, a decrease of 5,950 tons; the monthly import volume is 26,426.79 tons, a decrease of 431.27 tons; the monthly export volume is 596.08 tons, an increase of 124.52 tons; the monthly output of power batteries is 141,600 MWh, a decrease of 26,400 MWh; the monthly开工率 of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, a decrease of 5%; the price of lithium manganate is 54,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 106,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,750 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 202,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 182,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 198,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the monthly开工率 of ternary cathode materials is 45%, a decrease of 5%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 59,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan; the monthly开工率 of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 55%, an increase of 1%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 694,000 vehicles, a decrease of 347,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 765,000 vehicles, a decrease of 180,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 41.18%, an increase of 0.90%; the cumulative sales volume is 1,710,000 vehicles, a decrease of 125,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 282,000 vehicles, a decrease of 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 583,000 vehicles, an increase of 301,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on further implementing the Anti - Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China to comprehensively rectify "involution - style" competition in key industries such as platform economy, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles [2] - Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, said that due to the low base in January 2025, the import of automobiles from January to February 2026 was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of cars was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% from January [2] - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special action to boost consumption, optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, promote the reform of automobile circulation and consumption, and implement a quality - improvement and people - benefiting action for service consumption [2] 3.7 Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that although raw material costs support nickel prices, macro - factors still exert pressure on them. In the short - term, if the supply disruptions in April are realized and consumption turns seasonally strong, the supply - demand relationship may tighten marginally. If there are signs of inventory reduction, especially overseas, it will support nickel prices. The recommended strategies are to buy on dips after stabilization, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [2][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface and Summary - **Market Review**: In March 2026, due to the Fed's hawkish monetary policy and the tense situation in the Middle East, the risk appetite of funds declined significantly, causing the non - ferrous metal sector to fall. After Trump's remarks eased the situation, the market risk appetite rebounded, but nickel prices still failed to return to the beginning - of - month high. From the beginning to the end of the month, the position of the Shanghai Nickel Index decreased by nearly 10%. Due to the lack of capital promotion, the nickel price rebound was weaker than expected despite the narrowing supply - demand gap and strong cost support [3][10]. - **Market Outlook**: The macro environment is still uncertain, and asset prices may fluctuate significantly. In the industrial aspect, terminal demand has entered the peak season, stainless steel production has increased month - on - month, and the demand for ternary batteries is stable. Supply disruptions are concentrated in Indonesian nickel mines and MHP. Currently, due to factors such as nickel mine quotas, export taxes, and sulfur transportation in the Middle East, the prices of nickel mines and MHP remain high. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in April, the sulfur supply shortage will gradually intensify, ultimately affecting the supply of MHP, electrowon nickel, and nickel sulfate. If the inventory reduction amplitude increases, it will support prices and raise the price center [4][11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: 1. Unilateral: Buy on dips after stabilization. 2. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. 3. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6][120]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - In March 2026, the non - ferrous metal sector was affected by the Fed's policy and the Middle East situation, with nickel prices first falling and then rebounding but not reaching the initial high. The position of the Shanghai Nickel Index decreased by nearly 10%. On the supply side, Indonesian nickel mines were in short supply due to Ramadan and other factors, and the MHP price soared. On the demand side, domestic stainless steel production increased, inventory decreased, and the demand for new - energy ternary materials was stable [10]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of March 27, 2026, the global visible inventory was 373,000 tons. LME inventory decreased by 6,402 tons compared with the end of last month, while SMM's six - region social inventory increased by 13,270 tons. The overall visible inventory increased by 6,368 tons compared with the end of last month, lower than expected, indicating that the surplus has shifted back to China and the overseas nickel plate supply is tight [16]. - **Stainless Steel Raw Material Cost Support and March Resumption of Production**: - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: Affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the supply of Philippine nickel mines in April is expected to decrease. The first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore in April decreased slightly month - on - month, but the overall trend is strong. The NPI price has risen, but ferronickel plants are still in a loss, and production has declined. Chromium - based raw material prices have also increased, pushing up the cost of stainless steel [30][41]. - **Steel Mill Cost Inversion and Production Reduction Pressure**: It is expected that the production of stainless steel crude steel in China and India will increase significantly in March. In the first two months of 2026, stainless steel imports and exports decreased year - on - year. As of March 27, 2026, the social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 14,000 tons compared with the previous month, with the 200 - series and 400 - series accumulating inventory and the 300 - series reducing inventory [46]. - **Weak Peak Season Demand and Downstream Fear of High Prices**: In March, the global macro - environment was turbulent. The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates and the tense Middle East situation have put pressure on the commodity market. The real - estate data showed a slight recovery in March, and the production schedule of white goods in April improved year - on - year [65][81]. - **Ternary Demand Supports the High - Level Operation of Nickel Sulfate Price**: - **Stable Nickel Sulfate Price**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative production of Indonesian MHP increased by 12% year - on - year, and the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 87% year - on - year. Due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the cost of hydrometallurgy has increased. Although there is currently no reduction in production due to sulfur shortage, the long - term impact still needs attention [82]. - **Underwhelming New - Energy Vehicle Market Sales**: - **Domestic Market**: From January to February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased by 52% year - on - year, but the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles decreased. The power cell production increased by 33% year - on - year in the first two months, mainly due to the significant increase in the battery capacity per vehicle. The new - energy heavy - truck market is booming, and the export of lithium - ion batteries has increased [96][99]. - **Overseas Market**: In January 2026, the global new - energy vehicle sales decreased year - on - year, with different trends in different regions. China's new - energy vehicle exports increased significantly year - on - year. The European market has the best performance among the three major mainstream markets, and the new - energy vehicle market in some developing countries is growing rapidly [104][105]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Future Outlook**: The duration of the Middle East conflict and macro - sentiment are the main uncertainties, which have a systematic impact on the non - ferrous metal sector and commodities. On the industrial side, the supply - side disruptions are expected to be strong, and the cost support is solid. If the supply disruptions are realized after April and consumption turns seasonally strong, the supply - demand relationship may tighten marginally. If there are signs of inventory reduction, especially overseas, it will support nickel prices [112]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: 1. Unilateral: Buy on dips after stabilization. 2. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. 3. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [120].

2025 年业绩符合我们预期 公司公布2025 业绩：全年实现收入391.7 亿元，同比+2.1%；归母净利润为11.9 亿元，同比-22.7%。其 中4Q25 营收118.8 亿元，同比+11.6%、环比+29.2%；归母净利润4.4 亿元，同比+18.1%、环比大幅增 长。2025 业绩符合我们预期。 维持2026 年盈利预测基本不变,首次引入2027 年净利润18.8 亿元。当前股价对应2026/2027 年8.9 倍/8.1 倍P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，由于板块估值下移，我们下调目标价10.7%至25.00 元,对应12.6 倍/11.5 倍 2026/2027 年P/E，有41.2%上行空间。 风险 新能源产品销量不及预期，行业竞争加剧，出口不及预期。 福特科技业务调整致业绩下滑，长期有望修复盈利水平。4Q25毛利率同环比-2.3ppt/-1.4ppt 至12.5%， 主要受新能源产品结构调整及终端价格承压所致。受控股子公司江铃福特科技调整影响，3Q25 转回递 延所得税资产5.8 亿元，拖累盈利。4Q25 开始已无该项影响，归母净利润环比大幅增长至4.4 亿元。 2025 年销管研费用率总计同比- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYDE, with a target price of HKD 35.80, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.1 times for FY26E [1][3][18]. Core Insights - BYDE's FY25 revenue increased by 1% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 18%, primarily due to declining gross margins and weak sales from major smartphone clients in the second half of FY25 [1][2]. - For FY26E, management expects stable revenue growth driven by high-end smartphone components, increased automotive content value, and strong performance in AI server business [1][3]. - The report indicates a downward revision of EPS forecasts for FY26-27E by 9-16% to account for FY25 results and headwinds in the smartphone and automotive sectors [1][3]. Revenue Overview - FY25 revenue is projected at RMB 179,477 million, with a slight increase of 1.2% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to decline to RMB 3,514.6 million, a decrease of 17.6% [4][16]. - The revenue breakdown shows assembly revenue growing by 2%, while component revenue is expected to decline by 18% due to iPhone specification adjustments [2][4]. - AI computing revenue is anticipated to grow by 32%, driven by increased server shipments and customer acquisition [2][4]. Future Outlook - The growth drivers for FY26E include stable Apple business, high-end Android growth, and expansion into gaming, smart home, and industrial robotics [3][18]. - The automotive segment is expected to benefit from increased shipments and penetration of smart cockpit and ADAS technologies [3][18]. - AI computing is projected to generate significant revenue, with a target of several billion RMB, driven by AI servers and liquid cooling technologies [3][18]. Valuation - The target price of HKD 35.80 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, reflecting BYDE's diversified business and growth visibility [18][19]. - The report assigns different price-to-earnings multiples to various business segments, with a 20x multiple for AI computing to reflect its growth potential [18][19].