Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, expecting the 10Y Treasury yield to range from 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year [3] Core Viewpoints - Economic data in July and August 2025 were under pressure, and the overall economic growth rate in Q3 may slow down. The possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year has increased [2][3] - The report maintains a bullish stance on the bond market, believing that factors such as increased economic downward pressure, loose liquidity, bank self - investment demand, potential central bank bond purchases, and possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will support the decline of bond yields [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Consumption - In August, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in August was 4.0 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, and has declined for three consecutive months. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than from January to July [2] - Service consumption and online consumption were prominent. The service retail sales continued to grow rapidly, and the online consumption continued to accelerate. In 2025, the total box office of the summer movie season was 11.97 billion yuan, and the number of movie - goers was 320 million, with year - on - year increases of 2.76% and 12.75% respectively. In August, the catering revenue increased by 2.1% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage points higher than in July. From January to August, the online retail sales increased by 9.6% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous value [2] - Categories related to national subsidies maintained high growth, but most growth rates slowed down. In August, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, furniture, and communication equipment of enterprises above the designated size increased by 14.3%, 18.6%, and 7.3% year - on - year respectively, 14.4, 2.0, and 7.6 percentage points lower than the previous month [2] Fixed - Asset Investment - Fixed - asset investment has weakened for five consecutive months. From January to August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate has decreased significantly for three consecutive months, with decreases of 0.9, 1.2, and 1.1 percentage points in the past three months [2] - In terms of sub - items, from January to August, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment increased by 2.0%, 5.1%, and - 12.9% year - on - year respectively, all at their lowest levels since 2022, 1.2, 1.1, and 0.9 percentage points lower than from January to July [2] - Private investment has been negative for three consecutive months on a cumulative year - on - year basis, and the year - on - year decline in January - August widened to - 2.3% [2] Import and Export - The year - on - year growth rate of imports and exports declined periodically. In the first eight months, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 3.5% year - on - year. Among them, exports increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared with the first seven months [2] - In August, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, 3.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Among them, exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 3.2 percentage points lower than the previous month; imports increased by 1.7% year - on - year, 3.1 percentage points lower than the previous month [2] - The decline in August data was mainly due to the decline in the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US and Africa. The foreign trade diversification strategy continued. From January to August, the year - on - year growth of China's imports and exports to ASEAN and the EU continued to expand, increasing by 9.7% and 4.3% respectively, 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points higher than from January to July [2] Industrial Added Value - The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size weakened slightly. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points lower than from January to July, and 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points lower than in July, and 0.7 percentage points higher than in August last year. Among them, the added value of the manufacturing industry increased by 5.7% year - on - year, the mining industry increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.4% year - on - year, 0.5, 0.1, and 0.9 percentage points lower than the previous month respectively [2] Economic Outlook and Bond Market - The economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year. The economic data in July and August were generally lower than expected. The manufacturing PMI remained below the boom - bust line, indicating growth pressure. There may be a transformation of economic growth momentum and adjustment of income distribution structure [3] - The report is bullish on the bond market, believing that factors such as increased economic downward pressure, loose liquidity, bank self - investment demand, potential central bank bond purchases, and possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will support the decline of bond yields [3]