Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the oil market will mainly follow geopolitical fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [1] - The economic downward pressure in the US increases, which is bearish for silver. Silver may fluctuate passively following gold, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [1] - The short - term downward space of hog prices is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization or short - long the far - month contracts [3] - The new US biofuel tax credit policy boosts the sentiment of the oil market. The short - term palm oil price will maintain a high - level oscillation with an upward - shifted price center [3] - In the short term, the steel price may continue to run in a narrow - range oscillation [4] - Affected by supply pressure, the soybean meal price will correct in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [4] - The silicon iron futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [5] - The iron ore market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the futures price will continue to oscillate in a range in the short term [5] - The methanol market is expected to maintain an oscillating operation in the short term [6] - The bond market may continue to oscillate in the short term [7] - The soda ash market is expected to maintain an oscillating operation in the short term [7] - The PTA market is expected to accumulate inventory significantly, and it is in a short - term transition [8] - The short - term PVC market price is expected to oscillate strongly [8] - The rubber market will operate in a phased oscillation, and short - term trading is recommended [9] - The gold market may experience increased fluctuations in the short term, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [9] - The copper price is expected to continue to oscillate and repair in the short term to find a new balance [10] - The aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, waiting for new drivers [10] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - The EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82%. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day on January 30. The resumption and cancellation of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation affected the oil price. Before the new OPEC+ policy in March, the market follows geopolitical fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [1] Silver - The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8, better than expected. The economic downward pressure increases, which is bearish for silver. It may follow gold's passive fluctuations, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [1] Hog - On February 3, the national wholesale price of pork increased by 0.7% compared with the previous day, and the price of eggs decreased by 1.3%. The national hog price mainly declined yesterday due to increased slaughter and insufficient demand. The short - term downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization or short - long the far - month contracts [3] Palm Oil - From January 1 - 31, 2026, the Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 13.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 13.08% month - on - month. The new US biofuel tax credit policy boosts the oil market sentiment. The short - term price will maintain a high - level oscillation with an upward - shifted price center [3] Rebar - On February 4, the domestic steel market showed mixed trends. With the cold air moving south and the approaching Spring Festival, the steel market activity decreased. The short - term steel price may continue to oscillate in a narrow range [4] Soybean Meal - On February 4, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased steadily. The market stocking sentiment is weak, and the supply is abundant. The price will correct in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [4] Silicon Iron - The starting rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises increased by 0.09% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 0.14%. The market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [5] Iron Ore - From January 26 to February 1, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while that at 45 ports decreased. The overseas shipment increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise. The demand side is weak, and the futures price will continue to oscillate in a range in the short term [5] Methanol - The methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang increased. The port inventory decreased, and the production enterprise inventory also decreased. The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, and the downstream demand decreases. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Long - term Treasury Bond - The central bank requires to strengthen financial services and coordinate monetary and fiscal policies. The bond market may continue to oscillate in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The price of heavy soda ash is stable. The output increased slightly, and the inventory increased. The float glass start - up increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] PTA - The polyester inventory increased slightly. There may be no new PTA maintenance plans in February. The demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to accumulate inventory significantly. The cost side has high - volatility crude oil [8] PVC - The PVC price increased, the production capacity utilization rate increased, and the social inventory increased. The supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [8] Rubber - The Thai rubber raw material price is stable. The natural rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire decreased in January 2026. The domestic rubber inventory increased. The market will operate in a phased oscillation, and short - term trading is recommended [9] Gold - The US January ADP new employment is far lower than expected. The release of non - farm payrolls and CPI data may increase the market volatility. Gold is short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [9] Copper - Chile's official institution raises the 2026 copper price forecast. The supply is tight, and the demand is promising. The short - term price will continue to oscillate and repair [10] Aluminum - The global alumina production shows regional differentiation. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak during the off - season. The market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [10]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell back below the expansion threshold in January 2026, indicating ongoing economic challenges despite previous signs of recovery [2][3]. Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The construction business activity index dropped significantly to 48.8% from 52.8%, while the services business activity index slightly decreased to 49.5% from 49.7% [2]. - The production index stands at 50.6%, although it has declined by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a marginal contraction in production activity [4]. Group 2: Demand and Orders - The new orders index is at 49.2%, down by 1.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index is at 47.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points [4]. - The significant drop in the orders index suggests that the current economic recovery is not firmly established, with weak demand particularly in real estate sales and durable goods consumption [3][5]. Group 3: Structural Issues and Policy Implications - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises maintaining a PMI in the expansion zone while small enterprises are in contraction [4]. - The construction PMI's decline to 48.8% reflects not only seasonal factors but also a slowdown in local project construction and investment willingness [6]. - Analysts emphasize the need for stronger fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand, as the current economic recovery foundation remains unstable [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the announced LPR rate remained unchanged. The central bank's fourth - quarter regular meeting mentioned enriching and improving the monetary policy toolbox, conducting treasury bond trading, and paying attention to changes in long - term yields. The A - share market rose sharply, the bond market continued to rebound, and ultra - long bonds rose slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week [1][12][43]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of December 26, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 39BP, at a historically low level. Considering economic data, the domestic economy was under pressure in November, and the GDP growth rate decreased. The deflation risk eased. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level recently [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of December 26, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 16BP, at a historically extremely low position. Given economic data and market conditions, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The LPR rate remained unchanged last week. The central bank's meeting remarks, A - share rise led to the bond market rebound and a slight increase in ultra - long bonds. Trading activity decreased slightly but was still active. Term and variety spreads of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][12][43]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bond: Low spread, economic pressure, deflation risk relief, expected high - level spread fluctuation [2][13]. - 20 - year CDB Bond: Extremely low spread, economic pressure, expected narrow spread fluctuation [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. The 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply. Only 12 billion yuan of 20 - year local government bonds were issued [20]. This Week's Pending Issuance - A total of 2 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds are planned to be issued this week [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded with a turnover of 1.1535 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.8% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week [26][27]. Yield - Treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds' yields changed last week. Representative individual bonds' yields also changed [43][44]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: Narrowed last week, with a low absolute level. The 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 39BP, down 2BP from the previous week, at the 21% quantile since 2010 [53]. - Variety Spread: Narrowed last week, with a low absolute level. The spreads of the 20 - year CDB bond and railway bond against treasury bonds were 16BP and 19BP respectively, down 1BP from the previous week, at the 13% quantile since 2010 [54]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.96 yuan, an increase of 0.27%. The total trading volume was 560,000 lots (down 98,144 lots), and the open interest was 144,600 lots (up 2,655 lots) [60].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to focus on key industries, enterprises, and projects to address shortcomings and tap into potential for economic recovery [2] - There is a strong push for industrial development, with increased efforts in attracting investment, project investment, and optimizing the business environment [2] - The real estate market is targeted for improvement through the creation of high-quality, diverse housing products and enhanced marketing efforts [2] Group 2 - The meeting called for unified action among all levels of government to meet the economic and social development goals set by the municipal committee [2] - Safety inspections and risk management are prioritized as the New Year and Spring Festival approach to ensure public safety and stability [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A股 major indices closed with a mixed performance, with the market showing a pattern where large - cap blue - chip stocks outperformed small and medium - cap stocks. The overall economic fundamentals in China were weak in October, and the LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months, indicating a prudent monetary policy. Although the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on the 24th boosted short - term market risk appetite, the market will maintain a random - walk state and the stock index will remain volatile due to the lack of continuous upward momentum [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Contract Prices - IF (2512) was at 4493.0, up 18.6; IH (2512) was at 2964.6, up 4.2; IC (2512) was at 6909.4, unchanged; IM (2512) was at 7176.2, down 6.6. The prices of their respective secondary contracts also showed different changes [2]. 3.1.2 Futures Price Spreads - IF - IH spread was 1528.4, up 14.6; IC - IF spread was 2416.4, down 10.6; IM - IC spread was 266.8, down 5.2, etc. The spreads between different contracts and different quarters also had various changes [2]. 3.1.3 Futures Open Interest - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased, with decreases of 1104.0, 64.0, 460.0, and 998.0 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4517.63 (up 27.2), 2971.8 (up 3.6), 6965.1 (up 10.4), and 7248.5 (down 1.5) respectively. The basis of their corresponding futures contracts also changed accordingly [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 17,971.90 billion yuan, down 289.79 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 24,630.32 billion yuan, up 43.63 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume was 2153.06 billion yuan, down 210.01 billion yuan, etc. The market sentiment indicators showed different trends [2]. 3.4 Industry News - A - share major indices ended with a mixed performance, with most industry sectors falling. The defense and military industry sector led the decline, while the communication sector strengthened significantly. China's economic fundamentals were weak in October, and the LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Watch - On November 26 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were to be released; at 23:00, the US October PCE and core PCE were due. On November 27 at 9:30, China's October industrial profits of large - scale enterprises were to be announced; on November 30 at 9:30, China's November manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI were to be released [3].

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year in Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024, amid multiple economic pressures including fiscal and monetary policy dilemmas, weak growth, and insufficient international competitiveness [1] - Concerns are rising that Prime Minister Kishi's recent controversial remarks regarding Taiwan may further impact Japan-China relations, potentially leading to another quarter of negative economic growth [1] Trade and Export Impact - Japan's exports of goods and services fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, while imports decreased by 0.1% due to weak domestic demand, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [2] - In the first half of FY2025 (April to September), Japan's exports to the U.S. dropped by 10.2% year-on-year, with October exports declining by 3.1% to 1.75 trillion yen (approximately 11.1 billion USD) [2] - Major declines were noted in the automotive sector (7.5%), semiconductor manufacturing equipment (49.6%), and pharmaceuticals (30.8%), with the automotive sector being the largest contributor to the export decline [2] - Tariff increases alone are estimated to have caused a loss of 1.5 trillion yen (approximately 9.6 billion USD) for Japan's seven major automotive manufacturers in the first half of FY2025 [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - Japan's nominal wage growth was only 1.9% in September, while real wages fell by 1.4% year-on-year, leading to a decrease in disposable income for consumers [3] - Personal consumption increased by a mere 0.1% in Q3, significantly down from 0.4% in Q2, failing to provide effective support for the economy [3] - Core inflation reached 3% in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, driven by high food and energy prices, which continue to pressure household budgets [3] - The number of bankruptcies in Japan reached 965 in October, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, with small and micro enterprises (employing fewer than 10 people) making up about 90% of these bankruptcies [3] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The deterioration of Japan-China relations due to Kishi's remarks has negatively affected market sentiment, leading to declines in stock indices and sectors heavily reliant on Chinese tourism [4] - Predictions indicate a 3.1% year-on-year decline in net profits for companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in FY2025 [4] - Economists warn that without stable economic ties with China, Japan may face severe economic recession amid rising prices, a depreciating yen, and weak growth [4]

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, translating to an annualized decline of 1.8%, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2024 [1] - The economy is facing challenges including fiscal and monetary policy dilemmas, weak growth, insufficient international competitiveness, and increased tariffs from the U.S. [1] Trade and Export Impact - Japan's exports of goods and services fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, while imports decreased by 0.1% due to weak domestic demand, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [2] - Exports to the U.S. in the first half of FY2025 (April to September) dropped by 10.2% year-on-year, with October exports also declining by 3.1% to 1.75 trillion yen [2] - Major declines were noted in the automotive sector (7.5%), semiconductor manufacturing equipment (49.6%), and pharmaceuticals (30.8%), with the automotive sector being the largest contributor to the export decline [2] Domestic Economic Pressures - Japan's nominal wage growth was only 1.9% in September, while real wages fell by 1.4% year-on-year, leading to a decrease in disposable income for consumers [3] - Personal consumption increased by a mere 0.1% in Q3, significantly down from 0.4% in Q2, failing to provide substantial economic support [3] - The core inflation rate reached 3% in October, exceeding the central bank's target of 2%, driven by high food and energy prices [3] Small Business Challenges - The number of bankruptcies in Japan reached 965 in October, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, marking a five-month consecutive rise and the highest monthly figure of the year [3] - Small businesses, particularly those with fewer than 10 employees, are facing severe operational pressures due to rising costs without the ability to pass these costs onto consumers [3] Geopolitical and Market Reactions - Recent controversial statements by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida regarding Taiwan have damaged Japan-China relations, negatively impacting trade and economic cooperation [4] - Concerns over deteriorating Japan-China relations have led to declines in the Tokyo stock market, particularly affecting sectors reliant on Chinese tourism [4] - Predictions indicate a 3.1% year-on-year decline in net profits for companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in FY2025 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to tight liquidity during the tax period and a sharp decline in the A - share market, the bond market fluctuated narrowly with slightly rising yields, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][3][10]. - As of November 21, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a relatively low historical level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 13BP, at an extremely low historical position. Considering the economic situation and market sentiment, the probability of a bond market rebound is higher, and the spreads are expected to compress [2][3][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - **Ultra - long Bond Review**: Last week, tight tax - period liquidity, a sharp A - share decline led to a narrow - range bond market with slightly rising yields and a small decline in ultra - long bonds. Trading activity increased slightly and was very active. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][10]. - **Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook** - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of November 21, the 30 - 10 spread was 34BP. In October, economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth at about 4.2% (down 1.1% from September), and deflation risks remained. The bond market is likely to rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of November 21, the 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 13BP. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the 20 - year CDB bond variety spread is expected to continue compressing [3][12]. - **Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview**: As of October 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds was 23.9 trillion, accounting for 15.0% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (November 17 - 21, 2025), ultra - long bond issuance decreased to 886 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds were 811 billion, and bank sub - bonds were 65 billion. By term, 15 - year bonds were 395 billion, 20 - year were 191 billion, and 30 - year were 300 billion [18]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: This week's announced ultra - long bond issuance plan is 155 billion yuan, mainly including 153.8 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, ultra - long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 926.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bonds. The trading activity increased slightly compared to the previous week [28]. - **Yield**: Last week, due to tight liquidity and A - share decline, bond yields rose slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Yields of different - term treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed accordingly [38]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Term Spread**: Last week, the ultra - long bond term spread remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 34BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 14% percentile since 2010 [49]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the ultra - long bond variety spread narrowed, with an absolute low level. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread and 20 - year railway - treasury spread decreased by 2BP, at the 11% and 12% percentiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 closed at 115.57 yuan, down 0.51%. Trading volume increased slightly, and open interest decreased slightly [54].

Group 1 - Japan's economy is facing significant challenges, with the Cabinet Office reporting a 1.8% year-on-year decline in real GDP for Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [1] - The decline in GDP is attributed to weak domestic demand and sluggish exports, with real GDP decreasing by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter [1] - Exports have contracted for four consecutive months since May due to U.S. tariff impacts, with a notable 1.2% decrease in goods and services trade exports in Q3, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point drag on GDP growth [1] Group 2 - Private consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economic output, has seen a significant slowdown, with growth dropping from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.1% in Q3, indicating households are cutting discretionary spending due to high living costs [1] - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7%, reflecting the downward pressure from U.S. tariffs and persistent inflation affecting consumer spending [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows increasing downward pressure, with fixed asset investment declining year-on-year and external demand turning negative, indicating potential negative impacts on the stock market [1][3] - Industrial production growth has dropped below 5%, with high-tech industries experiencing a decline in prosperity, although high-end, intelligent, and green industries, as well as shipbuilding, aerospace, and automotive manufacturing, remain resilient [1][4] Key Economic Indicators - Retail sales of consumer goods are declining due to weakened demand, particularly in home appliances, furniture, and automotive sectors, while communication equipment and cosmetics show growth [1][6] - Investment across various sectors is weakening, with significant declines in real estate new starts and sales area, and housing prices experiencing a larger month-on-month drop [1][8] - Infrastructure investment has decreased more than expected, influenced by debt resolution, insufficient project reserves, and local government debt constraints, although digital infrastructure and energy security projects may provide some support [1][8] Sector-Specific Insights - Investment demand in the chemical, food, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal industries has contracted, but the core logic of industrial upgrading remains intact [1][9] - Manufacturing investment shows positive signals, particularly in computer electronics and electrical machinery, with a need to observe the sustainability of this recovery and its impact on overall investment [1][10] Consumer Behavior and Employment - National dining consumption improved in October due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, but overall retail sales continue to decline [1][6] - Despite weak goods consumption, there are positive signs of recovery in service consumption, supported by policy measures [1][6] Challenges and Policy Responses - The economy faces challenges with internal demand slowing and external demand declining, which may impact the fourth quarter's economic performance [1][12] - Historical trends suggest that as economic downturns and employment pressures rise, there will be an increase in counter-cyclical policies, with potential for new policy deployments [1][13] Market Dynamics - The capital market's resilience may diverge from the slowing economic momentum, reflecting long-term economic logic rather than short-term fluctuations [1][14] - Structural changes in the economy, particularly in the technology innovation sector, are expected to drive asset revaluation, suggesting a need for patience regarding short-term fundamental fluctuations [1][15]