证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 超长债周报 年末资金面宽松，超长债继续反弹 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周公布的 LPR 利率保持不变，央行四季度例会提到"充 实完善货币政策工具箱，开展国债买卖，关注长期收益率的变化"，A 股大涨，债市继续反弹，超长债小涨。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃 度小幅下降，交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差缩窄，品 种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 12 月 26 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 39BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 11 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。通 胀方面，11 月 CPI 为 0.7%，PPI 为-2.2%，通缩风险有所缓解。我们认 为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主 要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度并无增发国债，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速快速回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同时从中 央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发 展，经济总量"稳中求进 ...

会议要求，全市各级各部门要把思想和行动统一到市委的工作要求上来，扛牢责任、克难奋进，市级领 导要率先垂范、以身作则，市级部门要主动作为、靠前服务，各县区要守土有责、守土尽责，共同找对 策、想办法、抓落实，不折不扣完成各项任务，切实当好全省经济社会发展排头兵。 会议强调，元旦、春节将至，要统筹做好岁末年初各项工作，扎实开展重点领域安全隐患排查整治，坚 决防范遏制重特大事故发生，保障人民群众生命财产安全和社会大局稳定。 市委财经委员会委员、昆明市和滇中新区有关领导出席。市级和滇中新区有关部门和单位，各县（市） 区、开发（度假）区、自贸试验（经济合作）区负责同志参会。 本报讯 记者殷雷 朱勋航 通讯员王建报道 12月25日，市委财经委会议暨2025年四季度经济运行分析会召 开，听取有关工作汇报，分析研判当前经济形势，安排部署下步重点工作。 省委副书记、市委书记、市委财经委员会主任刘洪建主持会议并讲话，市委副书记、市长、委员会副主 任杨承新出席会议并讲话。 会议指出，今年以来，全市上下积极应对经济下行压力，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，经济 运行总体平稳，但仍存在不少问题和短板。要深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A股 major indices closed with a mixed performance, with the market showing a pattern where large - cap blue - chip stocks outperformed small and medium - cap stocks. The overall economic fundamentals in China were weak in October, and the LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months, indicating a prudent monetary policy. Although the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on the 24th boosted short - term market risk appetite, the market will maintain a random - walk state and the stock index will remain volatile due to the lack of continuous upward momentum [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Contract Prices - IF (2512) was at 4493.0, up 18.6; IH (2512) was at 2964.6, up 4.2; IC (2512) was at 6909.4, unchanged; IM (2512) was at 7176.2, down 6.6. The prices of their respective secondary contracts also showed different changes [2]. 3.1.2 Futures Price Spreads - IF - IH spread was 1528.4, up 14.6; IC - IF spread was 2416.4, down 10.6; IM - IC spread was 266.8, down 5.2, etc. The spreads between different contracts and different quarters also had various changes [2]. 3.1.3 Futures Open Interest - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased, with decreases of 1104.0, 64.0, 460.0, and 998.0 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4517.63 (up 27.2), 2971.8 (up 3.6), 6965.1 (up 10.4), and 7248.5 (down 1.5) respectively. The basis of their corresponding futures contracts also changed accordingly [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 17,971.90 billion yuan, down 289.79 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 24,630.32 billion yuan, up 43.63 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume was 2153.06 billion yuan, down 210.01 billion yuan, etc. The market sentiment indicators showed different trends [2]. 3.4 Industry News - A - share major indices ended with a mixed performance, with most industry sectors falling. The defense and military industry sector led the decline, while the communication sector strengthened significantly. China's economic fundamentals were weak in October, and the LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Watch - On November 26 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were to be released; at 23:00, the US October PCE and core PCE were due. On November 27 at 9:30, China's October industrial profits of large - scale enterprises were to be announced; on November 30 at 9:30, China's November manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI were to be released [3].

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year in Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024, amid multiple economic pressures including fiscal and monetary policy dilemmas, weak growth, and insufficient international competitiveness [1] - Concerns are rising that Prime Minister Kishi's recent controversial remarks regarding Taiwan may further impact Japan-China relations, potentially leading to another quarter of negative economic growth [1] Trade and Export Impact - Japan's exports of goods and services fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, while imports decreased by 0.1% due to weak domestic demand, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [2] - In the first half of FY2025 (April to September), Japan's exports to the U.S. dropped by 10.2% year-on-year, with October exports declining by 3.1% to 1.75 trillion yen (approximately 11.1 billion USD) [2] - Major declines were noted in the automotive sector (7.5%), semiconductor manufacturing equipment (49.6%), and pharmaceuticals (30.8%), with the automotive sector being the largest contributor to the export decline [2] - Tariff increases alone are estimated to have caused a loss of 1.5 trillion yen (approximately 9.6 billion USD) for Japan's seven major automotive manufacturers in the first half of FY2025 [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - Japan's nominal wage growth was only 1.9% in September, while real wages fell by 1.4% year-on-year, leading to a decrease in disposable income for consumers [3] - Personal consumption increased by a mere 0.1% in Q3, significantly down from 0.4% in Q2, failing to provide effective support for the economy [3] - Core inflation reached 3% in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, driven by high food and energy prices, which continue to pressure household budgets [3] - The number of bankruptcies in Japan reached 965 in October, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, with small and micro enterprises (employing fewer than 10 people) making up about 90% of these bankruptcies [3] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The deterioration of Japan-China relations due to Kishi's remarks has negatively affected market sentiment, leading to declines in stock indices and sectors heavily reliant on Chinese tourism [4] - Predictions indicate a 3.1% year-on-year decline in net profits for companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in FY2025 [4] - Economists warn that without stable economic ties with China, Japan may face severe economic recession amid rising prices, a depreciating yen, and weak growth [4]

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, translating to an annualized decline of 1.8%, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2024 [1] - The economy is facing challenges including fiscal and monetary policy dilemmas, weak growth, insufficient international competitiveness, and increased tariffs from the U.S. [1] Trade and Export Impact - Japan's exports of goods and services fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, while imports decreased by 0.1% due to weak domestic demand, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [2] - Exports to the U.S. in the first half of FY2025 (April to September) dropped by 10.2% year-on-year, with October exports also declining by 3.1% to 1.75 trillion yen [2] - Major declines were noted in the automotive sector (7.5%), semiconductor manufacturing equipment (49.6%), and pharmaceuticals (30.8%), with the automotive sector being the largest contributor to the export decline [2] Domestic Economic Pressures - Japan's nominal wage growth was only 1.9% in September, while real wages fell by 1.4% year-on-year, leading to a decrease in disposable income for consumers [3] - Personal consumption increased by a mere 0.1% in Q3, significantly down from 0.4% in Q2, failing to provide substantial economic support [3] - The core inflation rate reached 3% in October, exceeding the central bank's target of 2%, driven by high food and energy prices [3] Small Business Challenges - The number of bankruptcies in Japan reached 965 in October, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, marking a five-month consecutive rise and the highest monthly figure of the year [3] - Small businesses, particularly those with fewer than 10 employees, are facing severe operational pressures due to rising costs without the ability to pass these costs onto consumers [3] Geopolitical and Market Reactions - Recent controversial statements by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida regarding Taiwan have damaged Japan-China relations, negatively impacting trade and economic cooperation [4] - Concerns over deteriorating Japan-China relations have led to declines in the Tokyo stock market, particularly affecting sectors reliant on Chinese tourism [4] - Predictions indicate a 3.1% year-on-year decline in net profits for companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in FY2025 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to tight liquidity during the tax period and a sharp decline in the A - share market, the bond market fluctuated narrowly with slightly rising yields, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][3][10]. - As of November 21, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a relatively low historical level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 13BP, at an extremely low historical position. Considering the economic situation and market sentiment, the probability of a bond market rebound is higher, and the spreads are expected to compress [2][3][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - **Ultra - long Bond Review**: Last week, tight tax - period liquidity, a sharp A - share decline led to a narrow - range bond market with slightly rising yields and a small decline in ultra - long bonds. Trading activity increased slightly and was very active. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][10]. - **Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook** - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of November 21, the 30 - 10 spread was 34BP. In October, economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth at about 4.2% (down 1.1% from September), and deflation risks remained. The bond market is likely to rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of November 21, the 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 13BP. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the 20 - year CDB bond variety spread is expected to continue compressing [3][12]. - **Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview**: As of October 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds was 23.9 trillion, accounting for 15.0% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (November 17 - 21, 2025), ultra - long bond issuance decreased to 886 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds were 811 billion, and bank sub - bonds were 65 billion. By term, 15 - year bonds were 395 billion, 20 - year were 191 billion, and 30 - year were 300 billion [18]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: This week's announced ultra - long bond issuance plan is 155 billion yuan, mainly including 153.8 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, ultra - long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 926.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bonds. The trading activity increased slightly compared to the previous week [28]. - **Yield**: Last week, due to tight liquidity and A - share decline, bond yields rose slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Yields of different - term treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed accordingly [38]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Term Spread**: Last week, the ultra - long bond term spread remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 34BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 14% percentile since 2010 [49]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the ultra - long bond variety spread narrowed, with an absolute low level. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread and 20 - year railway - treasury spread decreased by 2BP, at the 11% and 12% percentiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 closed at 115.57 yuan, down 0.51%. Trading volume increased slightly, and open interest decreased slightly [54].

Group 1 - Japan's economy is facing significant challenges, with the Cabinet Office reporting a 1.8% year-on-year decline in real GDP for Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [1] - The decline in GDP is attributed to weak domestic demand and sluggish exports, with real GDP decreasing by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter [1] - Exports have contracted for four consecutive months since May due to U.S. tariff impacts, with a notable 1.2% decrease in goods and services trade exports in Q3, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point drag on GDP growth [1] Group 2 - Private consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economic output, has seen a significant slowdown, with growth dropping from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.1% in Q3, indicating households are cutting discretionary spending due to high living costs [1] - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7%, reflecting the downward pressure from U.S. tariffs and persistent inflation affecting consumer spending [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows increasing downward pressure, with fixed asset investment declining year-on-year and external demand turning negative, indicating potential negative impacts on the stock market [1][3] - Industrial production growth has dropped below 5%, with high-tech industries experiencing a decline in prosperity, although high-end, intelligent, and green industries, as well as shipbuilding, aerospace, and automotive manufacturing, remain resilient [1][4] Key Economic Indicators - Retail sales of consumer goods are declining due to weakened demand, particularly in home appliances, furniture, and automotive sectors, while communication equipment and cosmetics show growth [1][6] - Investment across various sectors is weakening, with significant declines in real estate new starts and sales area, and housing prices experiencing a larger month-on-month drop [1][8] - Infrastructure investment has decreased more than expected, influenced by debt resolution, insufficient project reserves, and local government debt constraints, although digital infrastructure and energy security projects may provide some support [1][8] Sector-Specific Insights - Investment demand in the chemical, food, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal industries has contracted, but the core logic of industrial upgrading remains intact [1][9] - Manufacturing investment shows positive signals, particularly in computer electronics and electrical machinery, with a need to observe the sustainability of this recovery and its impact on overall investment [1][10] Consumer Behavior and Employment - National dining consumption improved in October due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, but overall retail sales continue to decline [1][6] - Despite weak goods consumption, there are positive signs of recovery in service consumption, supported by policy measures [1][6] Challenges and Policy Responses - The economy faces challenges with internal demand slowing and external demand declining, which may impact the fourth quarter's economic performance [1][12] - Historical trends suggest that as economic downturns and employment pressures rise, there will be an increase in counter-cyclical policies, with potential for new policy deployments [1][13] Market Dynamics - The capital market's resilience may diverge from the slowing economic momentum, reflecting long-term economic logic rather than short-term fluctuations [1][14] - Structural changes in the economy, particularly in the technology innovation sector, are expected to drive asset revaluation, suggesting a need for patience regarding short-term fundamental fluctuations [1][15]

Economic Overview - In October, major economic indicators in China fell short of market expectations, with industrial added value growing by 4.9% year-on-year (expected 5.2%) and the service production index increasing by 4.6% [1][6] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative decline of 1.7% year-on-year (expected -0.7%), with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates at 1.5% and 2.7% respectively, both below expectations [1][6] Consumption - Retail sales growth was 2.9% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous month, with significant structural changes observed [7] - Durable goods consumption weakened, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, with automotive sales down 6.6% year-on-year [7] - Service consumption, particularly in the restaurant sector, showed improvement, with restaurant service consumption growth rising to 3.8% [7][8] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment declined by 1.7% in October, with significant drops in real estate investment at -14.7% and manufacturing investment at -6.7% [11][14] - Real estate sales saw a notable decrease, with sales area and amount down 18.8% and 24.3% respectively [11] - Infrastructure investment continued to contract, with a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [12] Trade - Exports in October saw a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% in dollar terms, marking the first negative growth since February 2025 [16] - Imports also slowed to a growth rate of 1.0%, indicating weak domestic demand [19] Supply Side - Industrial production growth slowed, with the industrial added value increasing by only 4.9%, below market expectations [22] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, indicating contraction for the first time since April [22] Inflation - CPI turned positive at 0.2%, the highest since February, while core CPI inflation rose to 1.2% [23][24] - PPI showed a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1% [24] Forward Outlook - The necessity for policy support has increased, with multiple incremental policies expected to take effect in November and December to boost infrastructure and manufacturing investment [27]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a shift in the bond market from headwinds to tailwinds, with a continued bullish outlook for November [1] - In 2025, the bond market is expected to rely heavily on increased allocations from bank proprietary trading, with a total bond market balance increasing by 16.4 trillion yuan in the first three quarters [2] - Government bonds accounted for a significant portion of this increase, with an increment of 11.4 trillion yuan, while financial bonds increased by 3.0 trillion yuan [2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the growth rate of bond investments by banks has significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% for the four major banks and 17.5% for smaller banks as of September [2] - The report notes that the demand for credit remains weak, leading banks to focus on bond investments as a primary driver for asset scale expansion [2] - The report anticipates that conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be in place, supported by a decline in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities for banks [2] Group 3 - Non-bank institutions are reported to have low bond positions and shorter durations, with a potential increase in bond market sentiment as the central bank resumes government bond trading [2] - The report suggests that there is potential for significant allocation of credit bonds by wealth management products, estimating a potential increase of several trillion yuan [2] - The report predicts that the 10-year government bond yield may return to around 1.65% by the end of the year, with a bullish outlook for the bond market continuing into November [2][3]