证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 超长债周报 超长债收益率小幅上行 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周税期资金面偏紧，A 股大跌，债市窄幅震荡收益率略微 上行，超长债小跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投 非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 21 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的反弹，30-10 利差会阶段性 压缩。 20 年国开债：截至 11 月 2 ...

Group 1 - Japan's economy is facing significant challenges, with the Cabinet Office reporting a 1.8% year-on-year decline in real GDP for Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [1] - The decline in GDP is attributed to weak domestic demand and sluggish exports, with real GDP decreasing by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter [1] - Exports have contracted for four consecutive months since May due to U.S. tariff impacts, with a notable 1.2% decrease in goods and services trade exports in Q3, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point drag on GDP growth [1] Group 2 - Private consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economic output, has seen a significant slowdown, with growth dropping from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.1% in Q3, indicating households are cutting discretionary spending due to high living costs [1] - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7%, reflecting the downward pressure from U.S. tariffs and persistent inflation affecting consumer spending [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows increasing downward pressure, with fixed asset investment declining year-on-year and external demand turning negative, indicating potential negative impacts on the stock market [1][3] - Industrial production growth has dropped below 5%, with high-tech industries experiencing a decline in prosperity, although high-end, intelligent, and green industries, as well as shipbuilding, aerospace, and automotive manufacturing, remain resilient [1][4] Key Economic Indicators - Retail sales of consumer goods are declining due to weakened demand, particularly in home appliances, furniture, and automotive sectors, while communication equipment and cosmetics show growth [1][6] - Investment across various sectors is weakening, with significant declines in real estate new starts and sales area, and housing prices experiencing a larger month-on-month drop [1][8] - Infrastructure investment has decreased more than expected, influenced by debt resolution, insufficient project reserves, and local government debt constraints, although digital infrastructure and energy security projects may provide some support [1][8] Sector-Specific Insights - Investment demand in the chemical, food, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal industries has contracted, but the core logic of industrial upgrading remains intact [1][9] - Manufacturing investment shows positive signals, particularly in computer electronics and electrical machinery, with a need to observe the sustainability of this recovery and its impact on overall investment [1][10] Consumer Behavior and Employment - National dining consumption improved in October due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, but overall retail sales continue to decline [1][6] - Despite weak goods consumption, there are positive signs of recovery in service consumption, supported by policy measures [1][6] Challenges and Policy Responses - The economy faces challenges with internal demand slowing and external demand declining, which may impact the fourth quarter's economic performance [1][12] - Historical trends suggest that as economic downturns and employment pressures rise, there will be an increase in counter-cyclical policies, with potential for new policy deployments [1][13] Market Dynamics - The capital market's resilience may diverge from the slowing economic momentum, reflecting long-term economic logic rather than short-term fluctuations [1][14] - Structural changes in the economy, particularly in the technology innovation sector, are expected to drive asset revaluation, suggesting a need for patience regarding short-term fundamental fluctuations [1][15]

Economic Overview - In October, major economic indicators in China fell short of market expectations, with industrial added value growing by 4.9% year-on-year (expected 5.2%) and the service production index increasing by 4.6% [1][6] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative decline of 1.7% year-on-year (expected -0.7%), with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates at 1.5% and 2.7% respectively, both below expectations [1][6] Consumption - Retail sales growth was 2.9% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous month, with significant structural changes observed [7] - Durable goods consumption weakened, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, with automotive sales down 6.6% year-on-year [7] - Service consumption, particularly in the restaurant sector, showed improvement, with restaurant service consumption growth rising to 3.8% [7][8] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment declined by 1.7% in October, with significant drops in real estate investment at -14.7% and manufacturing investment at -6.7% [11][14] - Real estate sales saw a notable decrease, with sales area and amount down 18.8% and 24.3% respectively [11] - Infrastructure investment continued to contract, with a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [12] Trade - Exports in October saw a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% in dollar terms, marking the first negative growth since February 2025 [16] - Imports also slowed to a growth rate of 1.0%, indicating weak domestic demand [19] Supply Side - Industrial production growth slowed, with the industrial added value increasing by only 4.9%, below market expectations [22] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, indicating contraction for the first time since April [22] Inflation - CPI turned positive at 0.2%, the highest since February, while core CPI inflation rose to 1.2% [23][24] - PPI showed a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1% [24] Forward Outlook - The necessity for policy support has increased, with multiple incremental policies expected to take effect in November and December to boost infrastructure and manufacturing investment [27]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a shift in the bond market from headwinds to tailwinds, with a continued bullish outlook for November [1] - In 2025, the bond market is expected to rely heavily on increased allocations from bank proprietary trading, with a total bond market balance increasing by 16.4 trillion yuan in the first three quarters [2] - Government bonds accounted for a significant portion of this increase, with an increment of 11.4 trillion yuan, while financial bonds increased by 3.0 trillion yuan [2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the growth rate of bond investments by banks has significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% for the four major banks and 17.5% for smaller banks as of September [2] - The report notes that the demand for credit remains weak, leading banks to focus on bond investments as a primary driver for asset scale expansion [2] - The report anticipates that conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be in place, supported by a decline in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities for banks [2] Group 3 - Non-bank institutions are reported to have low bond positions and shorter durations, with a potential increase in bond market sentiment as the central bank resumes government bond trading [2] - The report suggests that there is potential for significant allocation of credit bonds by wealth management products, estimating a potential increase of several trillion yuan [2] - The report predicts that the 10-year government bond yield may return to around 1.65% by the end of the year, with a bullish outlook for the bond market continuing into November [2][3]

Key Points of the Research Report Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations of various commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products, with expectations of price trends such as oscillation, weakening, or strengthening based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1][3][4] Summary by Commodity Metals - **螺纹钢 (Rebar)**: Fundamentals continue to improve, but inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. With the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. After a short - term macro sentiment cools, the futures price is expected to be under pressure. However, there is cost support and potential policy benefits, so there is a rebound drive after a weak adjustment [1] - **黄金 (Gold)**: There are differences in the Fed's decision on another interest rate cut, increasing market volatility. Although the US government shutdown has reduced the risk - aversion sentiment, the buying power of gold remains strong. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - **焦煤 (Coking Coal)**: Supply is affected by frequent inspections, mine production cuts, and other factors, with limited increase. Demand remains stable, and the upstream coal mines have reduced their inventories to a low level in recent years. The coking coal spot market is stable and slightly strong, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - **铁矿石 (Iron Ore)**: Supply has short - term disturbances, and demand has decreased significantly due to environmental protection and profit factors. The fundamentals have slightly weakened, but the overall pressure is not obvious. After the macro factors are realized, the market may turn to fundamental trading, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **白银 (Silver)**: Positive information from China - US talks and the better - than - expected economic recovery in the Eurozone have increased risk appetite and boosted silver. It is expected to oscillate upwards with limited downside space [7] Agricultural Products - **生猪 (Live Pigs)**: In early November, the market supply of pigs is becoming more abundant, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening has weakened. Terminal consumption has not been significantly boosted. The price of live pigs is expected to decline slowly, and the main contract LH2601 is under short - term downward pressure [5] - **菜粕 (Rapeseed Meal)**: Supply is rigidly short, and coastal oil mills have low inventories, reducing the risk of price decline. The domestic rapeseed crushing has basically stagnated, and the oil mill operating rate is low. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6] - **棕榈油 (Palm Oil)**: Affected by rapeseed oil, the futures price has broken through the previous low. Although domestic spot demand has been released, terminal consumption has not improved, and future arrivals are expected to be large. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] Energy - **原油 (Crude Oil)**: OPEC + will continue to increase production in December, and the market will be under pressure for the rest of the year. The oversupply pressure will be slightly relieved in the first quarter of next year. It should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [11] - **沥青 (Bitumen)**: The capacity utilization rate has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the peak - season demand is not strong, increasing the downward pressure. The overall trend is weak - oscillation [12] Financial Products - **长期国债 (Long - term Treasury Bonds)**: The PMI data shows increased economic downward pressure, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be intensified. The open - market trading of treasury bonds is likely to lower interest rates, which is a positive factor for the bond market. Due to liquidity easing and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **甲醇 (Methanol)**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories fluctuate slightly. The inland market is weak, and the port basis is weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2210 [8] - **纯碱 (Soda Ash)**: The float glass industry is stable with decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high - level supply and low - level demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1240 [9] - **聚丙烯 (Polypropylene)**: Supply pressure has been slightly relieved due to concentrated equipment maintenance, and commercial inventories have decreased. Demand has slightly increased, but the market trading atmosphere has slowed down. The cost support is strong. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 6620 [10] Rubber - **橡胶 (Rubber)**: In November, the overall shipment pressure remains high, and some enterprises have plans to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the increase in capacity utilization. However, China's rubber inventories have continued to decline, providing medium - term support. The downward space of rubber prices may be limited [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the price index remained under pressure, with CPI and PPI year-on-year in negative territory for two consecutive months. The CPI was mainly dragged down by food and energy prices, while the core CPI continued to grow steadily. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for two consecutive months, and the month-on-month remained flat [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the economic downward pressure may increase, and the possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future rises. Attention should be paid to the continuity of incremental policies and signals of price level improvement [1]. - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI was -0.3% year-on-year, up 0.1 pct from the previous month, and +0.1% month-on-month, up 0.1 pct from the previous month. The core CPI year-on-year increase expanded to 1.0% for five consecutive months, possibly affected by consumption promotion policies and the rise in gold prices [1]. - Food prices have been negative year-on-year for eight consecutive months. In September 2025, food prices decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, dragging down the CPI year-on-year by about -0.77 pct. Non-food prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for four consecutive months [1]. - In Q4, food price declines may ease due to the low base last year, service prices may maintain steady growth, and the performance of household goods and services prices may continue to be excellent [1]. PPI Analysis - In September, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.3%, up 0.6 pct from the previous month, and the month-on-month remained flat. The narrowing of the year-on-year decline was mainly due to the improvement in the prices of some domestic energy and raw material industries and the influence of international commodity price fluctuations [1]. - Policy-driven market environment improvement and industrial upgrading are the core supports for PPI stabilization, but the policy effect is weakening marginally. In Q4, the year-on-year decline of production material prices may continue to narrow, but it is difficult to turn positive year-on-year [1]. Economic Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the economy may face downward pressure. Consumption and exports may be under pressure, and the external environment is complex. The possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future increases [1]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. - It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond to 1.9%, and the 5Y large bank secondary capital bond to 1.9% [1].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a fluctuation and consolidation this week, with trading volume consistently above 2 trillion, indicating active trading sentiment. The index fell by 1.30%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%, and the STAR Market 50 Index rose by 1.84. The North Exchange 50 Index decreased by 1.43% [1][3][8]. Economic Analysis - Economic data for August shows a continued weakening trend, with various indicators reflecting a slowdown. The industrial added value for August grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by only 0.5% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value [9][10]. - The fiscal revenue for August was 1.24 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 2.03%, but down 0.62 percentage points from the previous month. Tax revenue was 1.02 trillion, up 3.39% year-on-year, but also down 1.61 percentage points from the previous month. Non-tax revenue fell to 220.7 billion, marking a 3.79% decline, continuing a four-month streak of negative growth [10][11]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations. The Fed's decision is seen as a neutral signal, with expectations of two more rate cuts within the year. This move creates external space for monetary easing in China [3][11][14]. Sector Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on sectors such as public utilities, finance, electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [4][15]. Stock Performance Tracking - The report includes a tracking of potential stocks for the month, highlighting companies like Xinhua Insurance, which closed at 45.05 with a maximum increase of 5.92%, and Xiamen Tungsten, which closed at 20.30 with a maximum increase of 3.48% [22][23]. Conclusion - Overall, the market is expected to continue its oscillating upward trend in the short term, despite the high-level fluctuations. The ongoing economic pressures and the need for policy support suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for the capital market [3][14].

Economic Overview - The Chinese economy has shown signs of slowing down, with macroeconomic data indicating a continuous decline in growth rates for three consecutive months[1] - The Politburo meeting in July emphasized the need for timely policy support, suggesting an increased likelihood of policy intervention[1] Financial Data - In July, the social financing growth rate was 9.0%, and M2 growth was 8.8%, both reaching recent peaks; however, new credit showed a rare negative growth[4] - The decline in government bond issuance in the second half of the year is expected to exert further downward pressure on social financing growth[4] Real Economy Data - Investment growth slowed from 3.7% to 0.5%, with real estate investment growth hitting a record low of 12.9% in August, potentially falling below 9 trillion yuan[4] - Retail sales growth decreased from 6.4% to 3.4%, while industrial value-added growth fell to 5.2%, indicating a broader economic slowdown[4] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly dropped to -0.4% in August, reflecting a significant weakening in demand[4] - The overall economic situation suggests both growth and price levels face downward risks[4] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that policy support should focus on areas where execution has been below expectations, such as infrastructure investment, which grew only 2.0% in the first eight months[4] - New policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market are urgently needed to counteract the current economic challenges[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, expecting the 10Y Treasury yield to range from 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year [3] Core Viewpoints - Economic data in July and August 2025 were under pressure, and the overall economic growth rate in Q3 may slow down. The possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year has increased [2][3] - The report maintains a bullish stance on the bond market, believing that factors such as increased economic downward pressure, loose liquidity, bank self - investment demand, potential central bank bond purchases, and possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will support the decline of bond yields [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Consumption - In August, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in August was 4.0 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, and has declined for three consecutive months. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than from January to July [2] - Service consumption and online consumption were prominent. The service retail sales continued to grow rapidly, and the online consumption continued to accelerate. In 2025, the total box office of the summer movie season was 11.97 billion yuan, and the number of movie - goers was 320 million, with year - on - year increases of 2.76% and 12.75% respectively. In August, the catering revenue increased by 2.1% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage points higher than in July. From January to August, the online retail sales increased by 9.6% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous value [2] - Categories related to national subsidies maintained high growth, but most growth rates slowed down. In August, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, furniture, and communication equipment of enterprises above the designated size increased by 14.3%, 18.6%, and 7.3% year - on - year respectively, 14.4, 2.0, and 7.6 percentage points lower than the previous month [2] Fixed - Asset Investment - Fixed - asset investment has weakened for five consecutive months. From January to August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate has decreased significantly for three consecutive months, with decreases of 0.9, 1.2, and 1.1 percentage points in the past three months [2] - In terms of sub - items, from January to August, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment increased by 2.0%, 5.1%, and - 12.9% year - on - year respectively, all at their lowest levels since 2022, 1.2, 1.1, and 0.9 percentage points lower than from January to July [2] - Private investment has been negative for three consecutive months on a cumulative year - on - year basis, and the year - on - year decline in January - August widened to - 2.3% [2] Import and Export - The year - on - year growth rate of imports and exports declined periodically. In the first eight months, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 3.5% year - on - year. Among them, exports increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared with the first seven months [2] - In August, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, 3.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Among them, exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 3.2 percentage points lower than the previous month; imports increased by 1.7% year - on - year, 3.1 percentage points lower than the previous month [2] - The decline in August data was mainly due to the decline in the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US and Africa. The foreign trade diversification strategy continued. From January to August, the year - on - year growth of China's imports and exports to ASEAN and the EU continued to expand, increasing by 9.7% and 4.3% respectively, 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points higher than from January to July [2] Industrial Added Value - The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size weakened slightly. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points lower than from January to July, and 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points lower than in July, and 0.7 percentage points higher than in August last year. Among them, the added value of the manufacturing industry increased by 5.7% year - on - year, the mining industry increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.4% year - on - year, 0.5, 0.1, and 0.9 percentage points lower than the previous month respectively [2] Economic Outlook and Bond Market - The economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year. The economic data in July and August were generally lower than expected. The manufacturing PMI remained below the boom - bust line, indicating growth pressure. There may be a transformation of economic growth momentum and adjustment of income distribution structure [3] - The report is bullish on the bond market, believing that factors such as increased economic downward pressure, loose liquidity, bank self - investment demand, potential central bank bond purchases, and possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will support the decline of bond yields [3]