1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term boost to bullish sentiment from domestic ore disturbance news has ended, but the long - term shortage of domestic ore remains. Imported ore from Guinea has reduced shipments during the rainy season, and the ore price is expected to be stable, providing cost support for alumina. Supply is steadily increasing slightly with little overall pressure. Alumina is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and in the medium - to - long term, attention should be paid to the implementation of increased production capacity, which may face pressure then [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 3170 yuan/ton to 3205 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price dropped from 3275 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 115 yuan/ton to 107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price dropped from 373 dollars/ton to 366.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss changed from - 31.34 yuan/ton to 14.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 45.5 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased from 26182 tons to 65771 tons, an increase of 39589 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. The prices of bauxite in various regions remained unchanged [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 0.12% last week, closing at 3205 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 3270 yuan/ton on Friday, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. The policy of adjusting the registration authority for some ore types in Shanxi has not directly affected the current ore supply. The shortage of domestic ore supply continues, and the supply tension has intensified due to weather factors, causing the previous downward trend of ore prices to stop and stabilize. The rainy season in Guinea has affected the shipment of imported ore, and the short - term price remains stable. On the supply side, the profit margin is acceptable, and the production willingness of enterprises is high. The operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level. As of August 14, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 11480 million tons, the operating capacity was 9520 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93%. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum capacity in Shandong is being transferred to Yunnan, and the electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi are resuming production. Overall, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly this week, leading to a slight increase in the demand for alumina. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 40245 tons to 66000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the news of adjusting the resource registration authority for ore types in Shanxi last week led to a sharp upgrade of the expectation of domestic ore shortage, and the alumina futures rebounded strongly again. However, the policy mainly affects mines that are either shut down or under - constructed, and has limited impact on the current domestic ore supply. It is expected that the annual production of domestic bauxite in 2025 can still reach 68 - 70 million tons, and the bullish sentiment has not continued to ferment. On the supply side, alumina maintains good industry profits, and enterprises have a high willingness to start production. The operating capacity continued to increase slightly last week. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum capacity increased slightly, and the theoretical demand increased slightly. The regional tightness of the spot market persists, and the spot price is relatively resilient. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 40245 tons to 66000 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [3][7] 3.4 Industry News - The Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources has adjusted the registration authority for the transfer of some ore types to strengthen the protection of strategic mineral resources such as bauxite and gallium. Guinea's Zhicheng Mining has been approved to resume exporting bauxite through the Kokaya Port. Vedanta expects that with the upcoming approval of the Simal bauxite mine, the cash cost of primary aluminum in the second half of fiscal year 2026 will drop below 1700 dollars/ton [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of alumina futures and spot, alumina spot premium, alumina inter - period spread, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][12][14][15][17][20][22][23]