1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan to promote stable growth in the non - ferrous metals industry restricts the new and under - construction project commissioning speed of alumina, and the alumina industry is expected to undergo a new round of supply - side reform, with market supply pressure under control [2][6]. - Affected by the news, the market may have a short - term concentrated release of bullish sentiment, and alumina will start a phased rebound. The rebound height and duration are greatly affected by sentiment and are highly uncertain [2][6]. - Alumina futures' main contract fell 1.76% last week, closing at 2,901 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market on Friday was 3,022 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from the previous week [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - Alumina futures (active) dropped from 2,953 yuan/ton on September 19th to 2,901 yuan/ton on September 26th, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price dropped from 3,061 yuan/ton to 3,022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 133 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [3]. - The FOB price of Australian alumina dropped from 323 US dollars/ton to 321 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss decreased from 175.36 yuan/ton to 153.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.8 yuan/ton [3]. - The exchange warehouse inventory decreased by 1,182 tons to 149,211 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [3]. Market Review - The supply of bauxite is in a severe situation, but due to strong market wait - and - see sentiment, the ore price has no obvious adjustment. The FOB price of imported bauxite from Guinea in the fourth - quarter long - term contract has dropped slightly compared with the third quarter [2][4]. - On the supply side, alumina supply has increased. As of September 25th, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 96.3 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.89% [4]. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Shandong continued to transfer production capacity to Yunnan, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Gansu, Guangxi, Xinjiang, and Qinghai released maintenance capacity. Overall, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the demand for alumina increased [4]. - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 149,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][4][6]. Market Outlook - The cost support of alumina may weaken in the future. The operating capacity on the supply side continues to increase, and the overseas alumina spot price is still weak, with the import window remaining open. It is expected that about 130,000 tons will arrive in October [2][6]. - The electrolytic aluminum enterprises on the consumption side mainly focus on production capacity transfer, with little change in theoretical demand. Before the National Day holiday, some procurement through bidding increased, and the spot trading volume increased [2][6]. Industry News - As of August 2025, China's total bauxite imports reached 141.756 million tons. In August, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, of which 12.326 million tons were from Guinea, and 4.43 million tons were from Australia, reaching a five - year high [7]. - The COBAD bauxite mine in Guinea has been shut down since September 24th due to a general strike. The strike events of Guinean mining enterprises are on the rise, which poses a risk to the global bauxite supply chain [7]. - In August 2025, China imported 94,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1,392%; exported 180,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 21.4% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 488,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 61.3%, and the cumulative export volume was 1.753 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 59%, with a cumulative net export of 1.265 million tons [7]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][11][13][17][19][25][26][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term boost to bullish sentiment from domestic ore disturbance news has ended, but the long - term shortage of domestic ore remains. Imported ore from Guinea has reduced shipments during the rainy season, and the ore price is expected to be stable, providing cost support for alumina. Supply is steadily increasing slightly with little overall pressure. Alumina is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and in the medium - to - long term, attention should be paid to the implementation of increased production capacity, which may face pressure then [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 3170 yuan/ton to 3205 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price dropped from 3275 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 115 yuan/ton to 107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price dropped from 373 dollars/ton to 366.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss changed from - 31.34 yuan/ton to 14.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 45.5 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased from 26182 tons to 65771 tons, an increase of 39589 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. The prices of bauxite in various regions remained unchanged [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 0.12% last week, closing at 3205 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 3270 yuan/ton on Friday, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. The policy of adjusting the registration authority for some ore types in Shanxi has not directly affected the current ore supply. The shortage of domestic ore supply continues, and the supply tension has intensified due to weather factors, causing the previous downward trend of ore prices to stop and stabilize. The rainy season in Guinea has affected the shipment of imported ore, and the short - term price remains stable. On the supply side, the profit margin is acceptable, and the production willingness of enterprises is high. The operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level. As of August 14, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 11480 million tons, the operating capacity was 9520 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93%. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum capacity in Shandong is being transferred to Yunnan, and the electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi are resuming production. Overall, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly this week, leading to a slight increase in the demand for alumina. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 40245 tons to 66000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the news of adjusting the resource registration authority for ore types in Shanxi last week led to a sharp upgrade of the expectation of domestic ore shortage, and the alumina futures rebounded strongly again. However, the policy mainly affects mines that are either shut down or under - constructed, and has limited impact on the current domestic ore supply. It is expected that the annual production of domestic bauxite in 2025 can still reach 68 - 70 million tons, and the bullish sentiment has not continued to ferment. On the supply side, alumina maintains good industry profits, and enterprises have a high willingness to start production. The operating capacity continued to increase slightly last week. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum capacity increased slightly, and the theoretical demand increased slightly. The regional tightness of the spot market persists, and the spot price is relatively resilient. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 40245 tons to 66000 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [3][7] 3.4 Industry News - The Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources has adjusted the registration authority for the transfer of some ore types to strengthen the protection of strategic mineral resources such as bauxite and gallium. Guinea's Zhicheng Mining has been approved to resume exporting bauxite through the Kokaya Port. Vedanta expects that with the upcoming approval of the Simal bauxite mine, the cash cost of primary aluminum in the second half of fiscal year 2026 will drop below 1700 dollars/ton [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of alumina futures and spot, alumina spot premium, alumina inter - period spread, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][12][14][15][17][20][22][23]