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国金证券:轮胎行业盈利端改善 国产胎企第二轮出海布局仍在持续推进
智通财经网· 2025-11-17 08:04
Core Viewpoint - The tire industry is experiencing improved profitability due to a decline in core raw material prices, despite challenges in overseas markets and a backdrop of consumer downgrade [1][2][5]. Industry Overview - The tire sector's total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 30.7 billion yuan, marking an 11.8% year-on-year increase and a 7.4% quarter-on-quarter growth. However, net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 22.3% year-on-year to 2.3 billion yuan, although it increased by 16.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The overall sales gross margin for the tire sector was 18.9%, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.6%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for tires is generally positive, with a recovery in full-steel tire production since June, while semi-steel tire production has been weaker since April due to tariffs and trade policies [2][5]. - Exports of passenger car tires remained stable at 266 million units year-on-year, while truck and bus tire exports grew by 4% to 98 million units [2]. Competitive Landscape - Overseas leading tire companies are facing revenue pressures, with Michelin and Goodyear reporting sales declines of 4.4% and 4.1% respectively in the first three quarters of the year. In contrast, domestic tire companies like Sailun and Linglong have seen sales increases of 12% and 10% respectively [4][5]. - The second wave of international expansion by domestic tire companies is ongoing, enhancing their risk resilience and positioning them for new growth opportunities [4][6]. Future Outlook - The overall demand in Q4 is expected to remain supported, although the replacement market may see a slight decline due to seasonal factors. The original equipment market is anticipated to provide stronger support [5]. - The EU's anti-dumping investigations may lead to tighter overseas supply, creating potential for price increases and improved profitability for companies with established overseas production [5][7].