证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20250713 关税豁免期延长或带动二次"抢转口" 2025 年 07 月 13 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《房地产对中国经济的影响已明显减 弱》 2025-07-11 《6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延 后至 9 月》 2025-07-06 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2025 年 7 月 13 日，本周 ECI 供给指数为50.14%，较上周回升0.04个百分点；ECI需求指数为49.92%， 较上周回落 0.01 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.96%，较 上周回落 0.02 个百分点；ECI 消费指数为 49.70 ...

每经记者｜黄博文 每经编辑｜陈俊杰 "胆似铁打，骨似精钢，胸襟百千丈，眼光万里长⋯⋯"伴随激昂旋律，两台身披醒狮服饰的机器人与居中顶绣球的机器人协同完成系列高难度舞狮动作。 近日，《每日经济新闻》记者跟随"活力中国调研行"采访团来到位于广东揭阳的巨轮智能（SZ002031），目睹了机器人舞狮的情景。 机器人舞狮 图片来源：每经记者 黄博文 摄 "机器人实现舞狮的关键，就在于其关节处搭载的RV减速器。"巨轮智能董事谢创鸿介绍。以顶绣球的五轴机器人为例，其内置5台RV减速器，配合精密控 制系统，可实现媲美人类舞狮的灵活运动。 据悉，巨轮智能成立于1992年，目前已形成轮胎模具、轮胎硫化机、工业机器人和精密机床四大高端业态。谢创鸿在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表 示，在轮胎模具这个细分赛道，中国已没有短板。公司董事吴友武向记者透露，公司未来目标是成为中国RV减速器领域的龙头。另外，适用于人形机器人 的XT减速器产品预计在今年底前实现量产。 在轮胎模具赛道，中国没有什么短板 "轮胎模具绝非传统制造业，而是典型的技术密集型产业，尤其是汽车轮胎模具。"谢创鸿告诉记者，"经过多年技术积累，在轮胎模具这个细分赛道，中国 目 ...

贵州遵义铝业股份有限公司车间里，电解槽熔炼滚烫的铝水；调度指挥中心大屏上，电解槽分子比数值 定格在2.42。 一年可为企业节电7000万千瓦时，减少费用约4000万元，"人工智能炼铝师"有啥绝招？ 这是贵州充分发挥资源优势、延伸产业链条的一个样本。聚焦精深用矿，贵州推进磷、锰、铝等产业延 链补链，磷化工产业提高精细磷酸盐等高附加值产品比重，铝化工产业加快发展高强度铝合金、汽车轻 量化材料。 "全省资源精深加工基地亿元以上在建项目共有100多个，总投资超1200亿元，一批百亿元级、千亿元级 的矿业产业集群正在培育。"贵州省工业和信息化厅厅长敖鸿介绍。 在此基础上，贵州坚持"动力电池+储能电池"双赛道布局、"新能源汽车+新型储能系统"双延伸发展，推 动整车全链条发展。 目前，贵阳弗迪电池二期项目、宁德时代新能源电池贵州基地已建成，吉利银河E5、长江电动重卡等 实现量产。今年前5月，贵州汽车产量达8万辆、同比增长320.2%，其中新能源汽车产量超7.1万辆。 数实融合，生产智能化—— "电解铝生产就像炒菜，分子比就如同调料配比，必须精准，才能保证品质。"遵义铝业首席技术官王明 刚介绍，"人工智能炼铝师"指的是公司联 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.11」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 「期货市场情况」 合成橡胶期货价格走势 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内顺丁橡胶现货价格弱势盘整，中石化化销高顺顺丁橡胶出厂价格累计下调100 元/吨，中石油各销售公司高顺顺丁橡胶出厂价格累计下调300元/吨。截止2025年7月10日，中国 高顺顺丁橡胶主流出厂价格在11400-11600元/吨。 行情展望：近期原料丁二烯端低价成交逐步转好，同事华东某上游装置故障消息影响，部分刚需 采购压价跟进，顺丁生产企业库存总体小幅增加，贸易企业库存小幅下降。成本面因素支撑当前 顺丁橡胶价格，但下游采购维持谨慎跟进，出货阻力或有增大，预计短期库存水平或小幅增加。 需求方面，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率增减不一，月初检修半钢胎企业排产逐步恢复，对周内 轮胎企业整体产能利用率形成一定拉动；全钢胎个别企业检修，拖拽全钢胎产能利用率略有走低， 下周检修 ...

智通财经7月11日电，据中国贸易救济信息网消息，2025年7月8日，巴西发展、工业、贸易和服务部外 贸秘书处（Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços/Secretaria de Comércio Exterior） 发布2025年第53号公告，应巴西轮胎工业协会Associação Nacionalda Indústria de Pneumáticos,（ANIP） 于2024年10月31日提交的申请，对原产于印度的农机轮胎（葡萄牙语：pneus agrícolas de construção diagonal）发起反倾销调查。本案涉及南共市税号4011.70.10、4011.70.90、4011.80.90、4011.90.10 和 4011.90.90项下的产品。本案倾销调查期为2023年7月至2024年6月，损害调查期为2019年7月至2024年6 月。公告自发布之日起生效。 巴西对印度农机轮胎发起反倾销调查 ...

Group 1 - Weihai's Huancui District has been recognized for five consecutive years as a top performer in high-quality county-level economic development in Shandong Province, highlighting its strong economic growth and innovation capabilities [1] - The advanced manufacturing sector in Huancui District is a key driver of its economic success, with companies like Baowei New Materials achieving significant efficiency improvements and a 30% increase in orders for aerospace composite materials compared to the previous year [2][3] - The district is implementing a three-year action plan for new industrialization and a program to support high-quality small and medium-sized enterprises, aiming to add over 20 specialized and innovative enterprises and 15 smart and green factories [3] Group 2 - The district is focusing on optimizing its building economy by conducting a thorough assessment of 116 key buildings to identify underutilized spaces and improve occupancy rates [4] - The Huancui Financial Center has achieved a 98% occupancy rate, attracting major financial institutions and generating significant revenue, with total revenue expected to exceed 2 billion yuan and tax contributions over 60 million yuan [5] - The district is also developing the Yuanyao Shallow Sea Technology Bay Area, which aims to become a leading hub for marine technology innovation, with 44 emerging marine industry projects already established [6][7]

机构简介： 永安期货股份有限公司（简称：永安期货）是新三板挂牌企业，证券代码833840，注册资本人民币13.1 亿元。公司自成立以来经营规模牢固占据浙江省第一，是国内唯一连续十八年跻身全国十强行列的期货 公司。经营范围：商品期货经纪、金融期货经纪、期货投资咨询、资产管理、基金销售。公司总部设在 杭州，北京、上海、广州、深圳等38个城市设有营业部、分公司，美国芝加哥设有办事处，香港、新加 坡设有子公司。全资子公司--浙江永安资本管理有限公司、浙江中邦实业有限公司、中国新永安（香 港）期货有限公司；参股公司--永安国富资产管理有限公司、证通股份有限公司、浙江玉皇山南对冲基 金投资管理有限公司、浙江永安投资咨询有限公司（与欧洲交易量最大的自营交易商OSTC合资成 立）。公司积极创新拓展混业经营、风险管理、财富管理、互联网化、全球配置五大业务领域，致力于 成为国内第一、国际一流的综合金融衍生品服务商。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 根据市场公开信息及7月10日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募永安国富近期对1家上市公司进行了调研 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese tire industry is at a critical juncture, facing significant challenges despite holding a 35% share of the global market, with over 50% of companies experiencing a decline in net profits [1][2] - The industry is grappling with issues such as overcapacity, trade barriers, and a general decline in profitability, with profit margins dropping from 5.3% in 2020 to less than 3% in 2023 [2][3] Industry Challenges - The tire industry is facing unprecedented challenges, including overcapacity leading to fierce competition, complex international relations creating trade barriers, and a situation where revenue growth does not translate to profit [2] - In the high-end passenger car original equipment market, China's market share is less than 10%, highlighting a structural imbalance [2] - The domestic market is suffering from severe overcapacity, with some production facilities operating at less than 60% capacity, and a rise in the number of tire stores closing due to credit issues [2] Brand Development and Market Positioning - The industry must shift its focus towards brand building rather than competing solely on price, as foreign brands dominate nearly 80% of market profits [3][4] - Continuous investment in research and development, product quality improvement, and service system establishment are essential for enhancing brand competitiveness [4] Opportunities in New Energy Vehicles - The growth of the new energy vehicle (NEV) market presents a new opportunity for the tire industry, with predictions of significant sales increases in the commercial NEV sector by 2025 [5] - Tire companies are encouraged to focus R&D efforts on NEVs and high-end passenger car tires to capture emerging market opportunities [5] Technological Advancements and Smart Transformation - A digital revolution is underway in tire manufacturing, with leading companies implementing smart manufacturing solutions that significantly enhance efficiency and reduce defect rates [6][7] - The integration of digital capabilities across the supply chain and production processes is becoming a core competitive advantage for tire companies [7] Global Strategy and Market Expansion - Chinese tire companies are adjusting their global strategies, moving from product export to brand establishment in international markets [7] - The establishment of production bases in regions like Africa demonstrates the industry's commitment to global expansion and competitiveness [7] Innovation and Performance Improvement - Innovations in tire performance, such as the development of liquid gold tires that improve fuel efficiency and reduce braking distances, are crucial for maintaining competitiveness [8] - The industry is encouraged to collaborate across the entire value chain to address international market challenges and enhance its influence in standard-setting [8]

Core Viewpoint - The steel cord wire rod industry in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by the booming automotive sector and increasing demand for high-performance tires, with the market size projected to reach 4.808 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.53% year-on-year increase [4][11]. Industry Overview - Steel cord wire rod, also known as cord steel, is a high-strength hot-rolled product with a diameter of approximately 5.5mm and a carbon content strictly regulated between 0.62% and 1.02% [6]. - It is a premium quality hard wire steel, essential for the production of steel cords used in radial tires, which are critical for automotive applications [6]. Market Policies - Recent policies in China have elevated the steel industry to a strategic level, with a focus on high-end, intelligent, and green development, benefiting the steel cord wire rod sector [7]. - Initiatives such as the "Three-Year Action Plan for Digital Transformation in the Steel Industry" and "Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plans" are fostering a favorable environment for industry upgrades [7][8]. - Policies encouraging innovation through tax incentives and subsidies are promoting technological advancements and enhancing the competitiveness of domestic steel cord wire rod products in the international market [8]. Industry Chain - The steel cord wire rod industry features a tightly integrated supply chain, with upstream suppliers including iron ore, coal, and various alloying materials, while downstream applications primarily involve tire manufacturing for various vehicle types [9][10]. - The production of steel cord wire rod is directly influenced by the stability of raw material supply and the technological advancement of production equipment [9]. Current Development Status - The automotive industry in China has shown robust growth, with total vehicle production and sales reaching 31.282 million and 31.436 million units in 2024, respectively, marking increases of 3.7% and 4.5% year-on-year [11]. - The rise of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has significantly boosted demand for high-performance tires, which in turn drives the need for high-quality steel cord wire rods [11]. Competitive Landscape - The steel cord wire rod industry in China is characterized by a competitive landscape dominated by major domestic players like Ansteel and CITIC Special Steel, complemented by foreign companies such as Kobe Steel and Saarstahl [12]. - Domestic firms are increasingly closing the technological gap with foreign competitors, particularly in the ultra-high-strength segment, through enhanced R&D and collaboration with research institutions [12]. Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to focus on high-end product development to meet the increasing performance demands of tires, particularly for NEVs, necessitating advancements in strength, toughness, and corrosion resistance [15]. - There is a growing emphasis on green manufacturing practices, with companies investing in energy-saving technologies and waste treatment systems to align with environmental regulations and enhance their market competitiveness [16].

化工日报 | 2025-07-10 天然橡胶社会库存持稳 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14045元/吨，较前一日变动+60元/吨。NR主力合约12095元/吨，较前一日变动+25 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14000元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13880元/吨， 较前一日变动+30元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1720美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1660美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11250元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 市场资讯 QinRex掌握的最新预估数据显示，2025年泰国橡胶产量料增加2%至489万吨，2024年初步数据为480万吨。其中， 北部地区增2.9%至29.9万吨；东北地区增1.3%至142万吨；中部地区增0.9%至40.2万吨；南部地区增2.4%至278万吨。 1-5月，越南出口混合橡胶合计34.1万吨，较去年的31.1万吨同比增加10%。其中，SVR3L混合出口8.1万吨，同比 增 ...