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英伟达份额降至零,寒武纪的三季报分析
傅里叶的猫· 2025-10-17 21:35
Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has completely exited the Chinese market due to U.S. export controls, resulting in a market share drop to zero [1][8]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Exit - In 2022, the U.S. first implemented AI chip export restrictions, with Nvidia holding over 90% market share in China [4]. - In 2024, Nvidia shipped 600,000 to 800,000 units of the H20 chip to China, which had only 15% of the performance of the H100 [5]. - By April 2025, the H20 chip was included in export controls, leading Nvidia to stop sales and recognize a $4.5 billion inventory loss [6]. - In August 2025, the H20 received an export license but was abandoned by Chinese customers due to security reviews [7]. - By October 2025, Nvidia's revenue from China plummeted from $17.1 billion to negligible levels [8]. Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - Despite the exit from the AI chip market, desktop GPUs, except for a few high-end models, can still be traded in China [9]. - Nvidia's recent DGX Spark can still be purchased in China, indicating that some products are still available despite restrictions [10]. Group 3: Cambricon's Q3 Report - Cambricon reported Q3 revenue of 1.727 billion yuan, with a net profit of 567 million yuan and a net profit margin of 32.8%, down from 36.08% in the first half of the year [11]. - The market expected higher revenue, with projections of 2.4 billion yuan for Q3 based on previous guidance of 5-7 billion yuan for the year [11]. - The launch of the 690 chip occurred faster than anticipated, indicating strong R&D capabilities, but the average selling price increased, leading to a decline in overall shipment volume [11]. Group 4: Inventory and Client Base - Cambricon's inventory rose from 2.69 billion yuan to 3.7 billion yuan, likely including a significant amount of HBM [12]. - Contrary to the belief that ByteDance is Cambricon's only major client, the company also serves other CSPs, national supercomputing centers, leading security firms, and several automotive companies [14]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The ban on Nvidia's restricted AI chips is expected to benefit domestic GPU/NPU companies, including Huawei and Cambricon [14]. - By 2027, it is projected that China's GPU self-sufficiency rate could reach 82% [15]. - The long-term outlook for domestic AI chips remains positive [16].