Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, the bond market was weakly volatile. In January 2026, as negative factors gradually materialized, the bond market's yield may first rise and then fall. With the easing of the supply - demand mismatch at the beginning of the year and the central bank's possible support before the Spring Festival, the bond market may see a low - level recovery. Currently, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market is being digested, and the current price level may attract early - year allocation forces, so Treasury bond futures may stabilize at a low level [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The weakening suppression from the stock market and the support from allocation forces kept the bond market stable. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board. The inter - bank funding market was stable, with a net reverse - repo injection of 361 billion yuan in the open market today [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: In December, the bond market was weakly volatile due to market speculation on interest - rate cuts and long - bond supply expectations, as well as pressure from the stock market's Spring Festival rally. In January, as negative factors are gradually materializing, after the initial high - pressure period of supply - demand mismatch, and with the central bank's possible support before the Spring Festival, Treasury bond futures may have a low - level recovery opportunity. The bond market's yield may first rise and then fall this month. With the release of economic data this week, the market should focus on fundamental information. Currently, the bond market may stabilize at a low level [11][12] 2. Industry News - **Policy**: The State Council Executive Meeting deployed a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including optimizing loan discount policies for service providers, individual consumers, and small and medium - sized enterprises, and establishing a guarantee plan for private investment and a risk - sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds [13] - **Interest Rates**: Most bank large - denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) have interest rates below 2%, and some small and medium - sized banks' products have rates below 1%. The term structure of large - denomination CDs shows a short - term trend [14] - **Real Estate**: In 2025, the transaction planned construction area of residential land in 300 cities decreased by 13.5% year - on - year, and the transfer fees decreased by 10.6% year - on - year. However, high - value land parcels in some cities continued to break records [14] - **Overseas**: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 has completely disappeared. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate decreased [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on Treasury bond futures includes trading data of various contracts, cross - term spreads of main contracts, cross - variety spreads, and price trends [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: No specific data content is provided, only the source of data is mentioned [23] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves is provided [34]