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反弹变为反转?
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-11-02 09:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of Treasury bond futures suggests paying attention to the possibility of a bottom reversal. This week, the 10-year Treasury bond futures rose continuously, and a breakthrough gap appeared on Tuesday. The futures have formed a breakthrough of the bottom range, showing a reversal pattern. Maintaining this pattern in the future is optimistic. T2512 and TL2512 have strong bullish forces, and specific support and resistance levels are given [2][3]. - The tracking of Treasury bond futures data shows that the futures rose across the board this week, with overall increased trading activity. The average daily trading volume of most 2512 contracts increased compared to last week, and the net basis of most CTDs decreased. The IRR, except for T, increased, and the current IRR is significantly higher than the funding rate, highlighting the value of the cash-and-carry strategy [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1. Previous Trend Review - On Tuesday, there was a gap breakthrough in the bottom area, showing strong bullish forces. TL2512 continued to rebound after being supported on Monday. Due to the central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading, T2512 and TL2512 formed an upward gap on Tuesday, breaking through the bottom area. T rose more strongly on Tuesday and Wednesday, while TL冲高回落 with a long upper shadow. TL started to strengthen on Thursday and Friday [7]. 1.2. Future Market Outlook - The bottom reversal pattern is obvious, and the future market remains optimistic if the pattern is maintained. Affected by the central bank's restart of bond buying, T2512 and TL2512 had a gap on Tuesday, which was at the upper edge of the bottom range, forming a breakthrough of the bottom range. The gap lasted for more than 3 trading days, confirming it as a breakthrough gap, and both formed bottom reversal patterns. TL2512 may form a head-and-shoulders bottom, with the neckline at 115.8 - 115.9 not to be broken; T2512 rose more rapidly after breaking through the bottom, and the level of 108.45 - 108.55 should not be broken. If the pattern is maintained, the future market can be optimistic. Both T and TL showed strong trends, indicating high bullish sentiment among traders. For T2512, the upper resistance levels to watch are 108.93 and 109.1; for TL2512, the target level is 118.4 [11]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - This week, Treasury bond futures rose across the board. As of October 31, the closing prices of the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures 2512 contracts were 102.544, 106.065, 108.680, and 116.68 yuan respectively, up 0.212, 0.450, 0.675, and 1.67 yuan from the previous week. The trading activity of Treasury bond futures increased overall. The average daily trading volume of most 2512 contracts increased compared to last week, except for TL. The volume/position ratio of TL decreased, while the others increased. As of October 31, the positions of all 2512 contracts increased. The net basis of most CTDs decreased, except for T. The IRR, except for T, increased, and the current IRR is significantly higher than the funding rate, highlighting the value of the cash-and-carry strategy. The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts decreased overall [13][19].