Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly technical analysis of treasury bond futures shows that they have fallen to a key position, and attention should be paid to whether effective support can be formed. The 10-year treasury bond futures opened high and closed low on Wednesday this week and entered a short-term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support of TL2512 around 115.8 - 115.9. It is currently possibly in the fourth wave of the uptrend since the end of September. Next week, the 5-week and 20-week moving averages will also move up and approach this area. [2] - The data tracking of treasury bond futures indicates that the roll - over process is gradually unfolding, and attention should be paid to the participation opportunities of the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract. This week, treasury bond futures fell across the board, trading activity declined, the CTD net basis of the 2512 contract generally increased (except for T), and the IRR decreased (except for T). As the delivery month of the 2512 contract approaches, more attention can be paid to the 2603 contract. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Previous Trend Review - This week's market declined, and the bulls failed to maintain their upward momentum, entering a short - term adjustment. TL2512 adjusted after being pressured by the 20 - week moving average, and both T2512 and TL2512 on the daily chart fell below the 5 - day moving average, entering a short - term adjustment. [6] 1.2 Future Market Outlook - Attention should be paid to the support of TL2512 around 115.8 - 115.9, which is the neckline of the bottom head - and - shoulders pattern. Also, pay attention to the support of the 5 - week and 20 - week moving averages. TL2512 may be in the fourth wave of the uptrend since the end of September. Next week, the 5 - week and 20 - week moving averages will approach this area, and attention should be paid to whether effective support can be formed to maintain the bottom reversal pattern. [8] 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - This week, treasury bond futures fell across the board. As of November 7, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.470, 105.910, 108.445, and 115.95 yuan respectively, down 0.074, 0.155, 0.235, and 0.73 yuan from the previous week. [14] - Trading activity of treasury bond futures declined overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity decreased compared with last week, and the trading volume/holding volume ratio decreased for each maturity. [14] - As of November 7, the holding volume of the 2512 contracts of treasury bond futures decreased across the board, while that of the 2603 contracts increased, indicating that participants are gradually rolling over their positions. [14] - The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of each maturity generally increased (except for T), with the CTD net basis of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year 2512 contracts being - 0.02, - 0.03, - 0.02, and 0.00 yuan respectively. The IRR decreased (except for T), with the IRR of the CTD of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year 2512 contracts being 1.62%, 1.65%, 1.58%, and 1.43% respectively. As the roll - over progresses, the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy of the 2603 contract can be considered. The 2512 - 2603 contract spread generally decreased (except for TS). [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of Treasury bond futures suggests paying attention to the possibility of a bottom reversal. This week, the 10-year Treasury bond futures rose continuously, and a breakthrough gap appeared on Tuesday. The futures have formed a breakthrough of the bottom range, showing a reversal pattern. Maintaining this pattern in the future is optimistic. T2512 and TL2512 have strong bullish forces, and specific support and resistance levels are given [2][3]. - The tracking of Treasury bond futures data shows that the futures rose across the board this week, with overall increased trading activity. The average daily trading volume of most 2512 contracts increased compared to last week, and the net basis of most CTDs decreased. The IRR, except for T, increased, and the current IRR is significantly higher than the funding rate, highlighting the value of the cash-and-carry strategy [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1. Previous Trend Review - On Tuesday, there was a gap breakthrough in the bottom area, showing strong bullish forces. TL2512 continued to rebound after being supported on Monday. Due to the central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading, T2512 and TL2512 formed an upward gap on Tuesday, breaking through the bottom area. T rose more strongly on Tuesday and Wednesday, while TL冲高回落 with a long upper shadow. TL started to strengthen on Thursday and Friday [7]. 1.2. Future Market Outlook - The bottom reversal pattern is obvious, and the future market remains optimistic if the pattern is maintained. Affected by the central bank's restart of bond buying, T2512 and TL2512 had a gap on Tuesday, which was at the upper edge of the bottom range, forming a breakthrough of the bottom range. The gap lasted for more than 3 trading days, confirming it as a breakthrough gap, and both formed bottom reversal patterns. TL2512 may form a head-and-shoulders bottom, with the neckline at 115.8 - 115.9 not to be broken; T2512 rose more rapidly after breaking through the bottom, and the level of 108.45 - 108.55 should not be broken. If the pattern is maintained, the future market can be optimistic. Both T and TL showed strong trends, indicating high bullish sentiment among traders. For T2512, the upper resistance levels to watch are 108.93 and 109.1; for TL2512, the target level is 118.4 [11]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - This week, Treasury bond futures rose across the board. As of October 31, the closing prices of the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures 2512 contracts were 102.544, 106.065, 108.680, and 116.68 yuan respectively, up 0.212, 0.450, 0.675, and 1.67 yuan from the previous week. The trading activity of Treasury bond futures increased overall. The average daily trading volume of most 2512 contracts increased compared to last week, except for TL. The volume/position ratio of TL decreased, while the others increased. As of October 31, the positions of all 2512 contracts increased. The net basis of most CTDs decreased, except for T. The IRR, except for T, increased, and the current IRR is significantly higher than the funding rate, highlighting the value of the cash-and-carry strategy. The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts decreased overall [13][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of 10-year Treasury bond futures has begun since September 25, and it's advisable to participate in the rebound on dips. T2512 may rise above the September 17 high of 108.165 on Monday. If so, it's considered the fourth wave of the decline since May, and one can consider participating in the rebound on dips. First, pay attention to the resistance around the low of the first wave at 108.41. If this level is broken, from a quarterly line perspective, focus on the resistance around 108.93. There may still be adjustments after the rebound ends [2][10]. - Treasury bond futures rose overall this week, except for TS which declined. The trading activity of Treasury bond futures decreased overall. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity decreased compared with last week, except for TS2512 which increased. The volume/position ratio decreased for all maturities except for TS2512 which rebounded. The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts increased across the board, and the IRR decreased overall. Currently, the IRR is around 1.3%-1.4%, still relatively low compared with the funding rate, so the value of participating in the cash-and-carry strategy is limited, and it's better to wait for a better opportunity [3]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Pre - trend Review - T2512 closed with a negative line in the third quarter and a doji in September. Since September 25, it has continued to rebound, and the level of the rebound may expand. On October 10, the rebound hit resistance at the 60 - day line, but the spot bonds performed well on Saturday. If there is no significant fluctuation before the market opens on Monday, T2512 may rise further, and the lowest price on September 25 may become a phased low [7]. 1.2 Future Market Outlook - Due to the significant decline in the spot Treasury bond yield on Saturday, T2512 may rise above the September 17 high of 108.165 on Monday, completely retracing the previous decline. The previous adjustment may have ended on September 25, and it's currently the fourth wave of the decline since May. One can consider participating in the rebound on dips. If it rises above 108.165 on Monday, the period from July 7 to September 25 is considered the third wave of the decline since early May, which extended and had nine sub - waves, with the fifth wave being an ending diagonal triangle. First, pay attention to the resistance around 108.41, and if broken, focus on the resistance around 108.93 from a quarterly line perspective. There may still be adjustments after the rebound ends [10]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - After the holiday, Treasury bond futures rose overall. As of the close on October 10, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.354, 105.650, 107.980, and 113.97 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.018, + 0.020, + 0.135, and + 0.07 yuan compared with before the holiday [15]. - The trading activity of Treasury bond futures decreased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity decreased compared with last week, except for TS2512 which increased. The volume/position ratio decreased for all maturities except for TS2512 which rebounded [3][15]. - As of October 10, the positions of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures were divided, with TS and TF decreasing and T and TL increasing [15]. - As of October 10, the CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of each maturity increased across the board, with the CTD net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year 2512 contracts being + 0.01, 0.00, + 0.02, and + 0.01 yuan respectively [20]. - In terms of IRR, the IRR corresponding to the CTD of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 1.37%, 1.42%, 1.33%, and 1.41% respectively, all of which decreased. Currently, the IRR level is not high compared with the funding rate, so the value of participating in the cash-and-carry strategy is limited, and it's better to wait for a better opportunity [20]. - The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts was divided this week, with the spreads of 5 - year and 10 - year decreasing, and the spreads of 2 - year and 30 - year showing no obvious change [20].

Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom of the 10-year Treasury bond futures may be approaching, and investors should actively respond to the adjustment. T2512 may be in the 4th wave of the decline since September 4th and is currently in a short-term rebound. The 5th wave may see another decline, but considering it might be at the end of the decline since May, it could be a good opportunity to participate when the futures reach last Thursday's low or the spot bond yield reaches Thursday's high [2]. - Treasury bond futures fell across the board this week. Trading activity declined overall, and the CTD net basis and IRR of the 2512 contracts showed differentiation. The current IRR is still relatively low, and the value of the cash-and-carry strategy is not high, so investors should wait for a better opportunity [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Previous Trend Review - T2512 continued to decline at the beginning of the week and rebounded significantly on Thursday. It is currently in the 4th wave of the decline since September 4th. The Treasury bond futures fell first and then rebounded this week, with a negative weekly line, but the decline slowed down significantly. T and TL rebounded significantly on Thursday afternoon and may be in the 4th wave of the decline since September 4th [8]. 1.2 Future Market Outlook - T2512 may still have a 5th wave of decline after the 4th wave of rebound ends. Investors can participate at low levels and make long-term layouts. The subsequent trend may form a slanting triangle [9]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures fell across the board this week. As of September 26th, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures were 102.342, 105.540, 107.680, and 114.19 yuan respectively, down 0.022, 0.135, 0.155, and 0.61 yuan from the previous week [14]. - Trading activity declined overall. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures of various maturities decreased to varying degrees compared with last week. The trading volume/holding volume ratio decreased for all maturities [14]. - As of September 26th, the holding volume of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures increased overall, except for the 10-year contract, which decreased [14]. - The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures of various maturities showed differentiation. The net basis of 2-year and 10-year contracts increased, while that of 5-year and 30-year contracts decreased. The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures was +0.03, +0.04, +0.07, and +0.07 yuan respectively [18]. - From the perspective of IRR, the IRR of the 2512 contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures was 1.41%, 1.34%, 1.22%, and 1.29% respectively. The IRR of 2-year and 10-year contracts declined, while that of 5-year and 30-year contracts increased. Overall, the value of the cash-and-carry strategy is still not high, and investors should wait for a better opportunity [18]. - The spread between the 2512-2603 contracts showed differentiation. The spreads of 2-year and 30-year contracts increased, while those of 5-year and 10-year contracts showed no significant change [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term TS may continue to be weaker than T and TL due to weak market expectations for central bank interest rate cuts, high capital prices, weaker short - end spot and futures bonds compared to long - end, and the persistence of TS positive arbitrage and hedging strategies [1][35] - The current curve is extremely flat, short - end is significantly affected by capital pricing, and the short - end long - position driving force is limited before the capital price drops significantly [1][14] - Institutions such as funds short futures for hedging to offset interest rate fluctuation risks, and many institutions turn to coupon strategies [2][14] - TS positive arbitrage strategy is a key factor in the decline of TS, with the IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver bond in TS higher than the capital price and a continuous negative basis [3][27] - The main contract of TS is accelerating the switch from TS2506 to TS2509, and TS2506 may perform weaker [4][28] - The possible switch of the cheapest - to - deliver bond of TS2506 from 240024 to 250006 restricts the performance of TS2506 [5][33] Summary by Directory 1 TS in Decline - Since mid - March, the TS contract has been significantly weaker than TF/T/TL contracts. The T main - continuous contract price rose by 1.77% from March 17 to April 22, while the TS main - continuous contract price nearly dropped back to the mid - March low. TS also performed weaker than 2 - year treasury bond spot [12] - Reasons for the decline of TS: - The curve is extremely flat, short - end is affected by capital pricing, and the short - end long - position driving force is limited due to the obvious negative carry and slow decline of the capital price center [14] - Institutions such as funds short TS for hedging. In the current interest rate shock trend, many institutions turn to coupon strategies, and shorting TS can hedge part of the bond market decline risk. The net purchase scale of short - term interest - rate bonds by funds has slowed down since April, while the net purchase scale of short - term credit bonds has increased [2][14][20] - TS positive arbitrage strategy is a key factor. The IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver bond in TS is about 2.3%, significantly higher than the 1.75% - 1.80% return of 1 - year NCD [3][27] - The main contract is accelerating the switch from TS2506 to TS2509. The reasons may be that institutions such as brokers short TS2506 and long TS2509, and non - traditional investors such as funds mainly use TS2509 for hedging and positive arbitrage [4][28] - The possible switch of the cheapest - to - deliver bond of TS2506 from 240024 to 250006 restricts the performance of TS2506 [5][33] - Outlook: Short - term TS may continue to be weaker than T and TL. The 10 - year - 2 - year treasury bond term spread has reached the lowest point since 2020, and the probability of the short - end spot bond weakening significantly again is small [35]