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国家靠什么取信市场?
伍治坚证据主义· 2025-11-14 08:21
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of the concept of credit as a product of governance rather than wealth, highlighting the significance of institutional frameworks in establishing national creditworthiness [2][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1693, the British government faced severe financial strain due to ongoing wars, leading to a reliance on borrowing and increasing public discontent over taxes [2]. - The financial situation was dire, with the government borrowing from London merchants but still falling short of its needs [2]. Group 2: Financial Innovation - Charles Montagu proposed the idea of securitizing national credit, shifting the perception of debt from being owed by the king to being owed by the state, thus enhancing investor confidence [3][4]. - This marked the beginning of the "credit revolution," where the responsibility for debt repayment was placed on Parliament rather than the monarchy [4]. Group 3: Institutional Frameworks - Three key conditions enabled the success of this financial reform in England: parliamentary sovereignty, transparent public budgeting, and the linkage of taxes to debt repayment [7][8]. - The establishment of the Bank of England in 1694 represented a revolutionary structure where the government and market collaborated, allowing for the securitization of debt [9]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis - From 1694 to 1705, the long-term borrowing costs for the British government decreased from approximately 14% to 6%, while French government bond yields remained high at 15%-20%, illustrating the advantages of the British governance model [9]. - The stability of the British institutional framework has been tested over centuries, with the country never experiencing a sovereign default since the late 17th century [10]. Group 5: Modern Implications - The article emphasizes that a country's ability to borrow at reasonable costs is not solely based on wealth or resources but rather on the credibility of its governance and institutional integrity [12]. - Examples from the U.S. and Japan illustrate that governance quality significantly influences bond yields, with high debt levels not necessarily leading to increased borrowing costs if governance is perceived as reliable [11][12].