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达利欧警告:黄金是最成熟的货币,零配置或低配都是战略失误!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-10-20 00:40
Core Viewpoint - The founder of Bridgewater Associates, Dalio, presents a unique perspective on gold, viewing it as the most mature form of currency rather than merely a metal, and emphasizes its role as a hedge against debt and currency devaluation [1][2]. Group 1: Gold as Currency - Gold is perceived as a form of currency with purchasing power similar to cash, providing a long-term real return rate of approximately 1.2%, but it does not generate income [1][2]. - Unlike fiat currency, gold cannot be printed or devalued, making it a superior hedge during market downturns or credit system collapses [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Dalio argues that gold is a fundamental investment rather than a regular commodity, and its unique position as a non-debt currency makes it essential in investment portfolios [2][3]. - A strategic allocation of around 15% in gold can optimize the risk-return ratio in diversified portfolios, despite potentially lowering long-term expected returns [4]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Assets - While silver and platinum have inflation-hedging properties, they lack the historical value storage and stability of gold, making them less effective for wealth preservation [2][3]. - Inflation-protected bonds are still debt commitments and may not provide the same level of security as gold during systemic financial crises [3][4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Gold ETFs enhance market liquidity and transparency but are still smaller in scale compared to the physical gold market and central bank holdings, thus not being the primary driver of recent gold price increases [5]. - Gold is increasingly replacing U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" in the portfolios of central banks and institutional investors, highlighting its historical stability compared to government debt [5].