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柳工(000528):业绩符合预期,大股东增持彰显信心
Guotou Securities· 2025-04-28 09:03
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 15.6 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 9.95 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 9.149 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 15.24%, and a net profit of 657 million CNY, up 32% year-on-year, aligning closely with prior forecasts [2][3]. - The recovery in the construction machinery sector is accelerating, with both domestic and international sales showing positive trends. The domestic market is benefiting from improved demand, while overseas markets, particularly in emerging regions, are also performing well [2][3]. - The company's profitability continues to improve, with gross and net profit margins at 22.01% and 7.03%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase due to cost control measures [3]. - The governance structure remains stable, with significant share buybacks and plans for major shareholder increases, enhancing investor confidence [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.149 billion CNY, a 15.24% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 657 million CNY, up 32% year-on-year, which is close to the upper limit of the previous guidance [2]. - The gross margin and net margin improved to 22.01% and 7.03%, respectively, with a reduction in operating expenses contributing to this growth [3]. Market Trends - The construction machinery industry is experiencing a recovery, with excavator sales increasing by 22.83% year-on-year and loader sales up by 14.82% year-on-year. Domestic sales are particularly strong, with a 38.25% increase in domestic excavator sales [2]. - The company is benefiting from a recovery in domestic demand and steady growth in international markets, especially in Europe, where profitability has significantly improved [2]. Governance and Shareholder Confidence - The company's governance structure has remained stable following recent leadership changes, with the major shareholder planning to increase their stake by 250 to 500 million CNY, which is expected to bolster investor confidence [4]. - The company has implemented share buybacks totaling 600 million CNY, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder value [4]. Future Projections - The company aims for a revenue target of 34.6 billion CNY in 2025, with projected net profits of 2.11 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 58.9% [9]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 34.83 billion CNY, 40.85 billion CNY, and 48.79 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 2.11 billion CNY, 2.95 billion CNY, and 4.06 billion CNY, indicating strong growth potential [9][10].