国有金融资本管理体制完善
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国泰海通:一流投行建设加速推进 看好证券板块估值修复
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 06:33
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan highlights that supply-side reforms remain a significant long-term change in the securities industry, indicating that the brokerage sector is currently undervalued compared to its fundamentals, with a current PB of 1.40x, which is at the 57% and 40% percentile of the past 5 and 10 years respectively. The report anticipates a valuation recovery driven by upcoming events and continues to recommend the sector [1]. Group 1 - The integration plan announced by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) involves a major asset restructuring, aiming to merge with Xinda Securities and Dongxing Securities, with a suspension period not exceeding 25 trading days [1]. - The integration is expected to be based on the need for improving the management of state-owned financial capital, with the actual controllers of China Xinda, China Dongfang, and other AMCs changing to Central Huijin, which will consolidate seven brokerage licenses under its umbrella [2]. - The merger is anticipated to enhance efficiency and support the development of a first-class investment bank [3]. Group 2 - The merger is projected to significantly enhance comprehensive strength, with expected synergies primarily in expanding the customer base and improving asset acquisition efficiency. Based on Q3 2025 data, CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities rank 8th, 25th, and 26th in the industry, respectively, and the integration could elevate their ranking to 3rd or 4th [4]. - Post-merger, the combined entity is expected to rank 3rd in net revenue, 6th in net profit attributable to shareholders, 4th in total assets, and 4th in net assets within the industry [4]. - The merger is likely to strengthen various business segments, with proprietary income expected to rise to 3rd place, and capital utilization efficiency is projected to improve, with CICC's leverage at 5.4x compared to Dongxing Securities at 3.2x and Xinda Securities at 3.8x. The brokerage business is also expected to enhance its customer base, particularly in regions like Fujian and Liaoning [4].