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专访高盛亚太区首席股票策略分析师慕天辉:美元走弱利好亚洲股市,看好中国AI软件与应用板块|全球财经连线
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-29 10:42
Core Viewpoint - The global economic risks have slightly eased, but uncertainties remain, necessitating a cautious approach from investors [1][3][5] Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for the Asia-Pacific market, predicting an 8% increase in the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index (MXAPJ) over the next 12 months, driven by corporate earnings [1][16] - The MXAPJ index rebounded strongly after a significant drop in April, primarily due to the reduction of tariffs between the US and China [2][3] Industry Preferences - Goldman Sachs is particularly bullish on software and applications related to artificial intelligence, highlighting it as a strong sector in the Chinese market [1][10] - The firm favors domestic consumption enterprises, internet technology sectors, and companies with global competitiveness targeting emerging markets, such as electric vehicle manufacturers [7][9] Investment Themes - The theme of "shareholder cash returns" is emphasized, with the overall dividend payout ratio of Chinese listed companies rising to 39% in 2024, significantly above the five-year average of 32% [8] - Long-term themes such as profit expectation revisions, high profit quality, high dividend yields, and defense spending are identified as key investment directions for the second half of the year [16] Regional Insights - The Indian market shows long-term growth potential, but its high valuation (23 times earnings) leads to a neutral stance rather than an overweight position [9] - Among ASEAN markets, Singapore and the Philippines are favored, while Thailand is viewed with caution due to structural growth issues [9] Currency and Gold Outlook - A structural depreciation of the US dollar is anticipated, which is expected to benefit Asian markets as capital flows towards them [11] - Gold is viewed as a strong asset, with a target price of $3,800 per ounce, driven by ongoing global uncertainties and geopolitical risks [12][13]