Core Viewpoint - The Argentine central bank has sold over $1 billion in foreign reserves within three days to defend the peso's exchange rate, indicating a severe test for President Javier Milei's economic policies [1][2][5]. Group 1: Currency Intervention - On September 19, the Argentine central bank sold $678 million to support the peso, marking the third intervention of the week [2]. - The total sales over three days included $379 million on September 18 and $53 million on September 17 [2]. - The continuous intervention suggests that the peso is facing a potential run on the currency [3]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - The peso has depreciated nearly 12% against the dollar in the past month, raising doubts about the Milei government's ability to maintain the current exchange rate policy [5]. - The central bank's reserves are insufficient to sustain daily sales of $500 million, as highlighted by economic analyst Brad Setser [4]. Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - The current situation is reminiscent of Argentina's 2001 debt crisis, where previous government actions led to a significant default [15][16]. - The political defeat of Milei's party in local elections has shaken investor confidence in his ability to uphold free-market policies [20][21]. - The recent political turmoil and declining reserves have heightened concerns about the government's debt repayment capacity, reflected in the plummeting prices of sovereign bonds [24]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Milei government must demonstrate political strength or find new sources of dollars to prevent a currency crisis [9]. - The government's credibility and potential electoral performance could be severely impacted if they are forced to change the exchange rate regime [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Argentine central bank has sold over $1 billion in foreign reserves within three days to defend the peso's exchange rate, indicating severe pressure on the currency and the government's economic policies [1][11]. Group 1: Currency Intervention - The Argentine central bank sold $678 million on Friday, marking the third intervention in the currency market that week, following sales of $379 million and $53 million on Thursday and Wednesday, respectively [1]. - The peso has depreciated nearly 12% against the dollar over the past month, raising doubts about the government's ability to maintain its current exchange rate policy [1]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Economist Gabriel from Outlier Financial Consulting warns that the massive amount of pesos withdrawn from the market to sell dollars will have a "very strong" impact on economic activity, potentially leading to credit tightening and economic contraction [4]. - The core issue for Argentina is the lack of "non-borrowed reserves," with the IMF loan constituting a significant portion of the central bank's reserves [5][7]. Group 3: Political Factors - The recent sharp decline in the peso was triggered by a political setback for President Javier Milei's liberal party in local elections, which undermined investor confidence in his ability to maintain a free-market agenda [11]. - Concerns about the government's debt repayment capacity have increased, reflected in the sharp rise in sovereign bond yields, which have surged by 5.5 percentage points in two weeks [12].

IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃：将继续关注国际收支问题。 ...